Today marks the release of my paper, “Uncle Sucker: Why U.S. Efforts at Defense Burdensharing Fail.” The Ukraine war has made policymakers ask why we carry such a large share of the burden. Every US president going back to Eisenhower had similar questions cato.org/policy-analysi… The title comes from Eisenhower’s lament to Gen Goodpaster in *1959* that “the Europeans are close to ‘making a sucker out of Uncle Sam’; so long as they could prove a need for emergency help [on defense], that was one thing. But that time has passed.”

After Putin recognizes the bogus referenda, Putin wants negotiations and Zelenskiy says he's applied for "accelerated" NATO membership.

This thing may never end. See also:

https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1575852889225953282?s=20&t=PYNSCm25WmTxQH6RYovf-A

It is interesting to see HR McMaster resign from the Atlantic Council because a wealthy American he disagrees with is giving money to the think tank. A thread 1/ freebeacon.com/national-secur… First, it is a cowardly move. McMaster clearly believes that opposing views are somehow beyond the pale, and therefore to be stifled, not argued with. It is a pinched, cliquish view of the marketplace of ideas. 2/

Periodic reminder that Don Rumsfeld thought about striking Iraq on 9/11 after the Pentagon had been hit, Paul Wolfowitz advocated for it 9/15/01, and President Bush asked Rumsfeld to start working on plans November 21, 2001. Assumption #9 of the initial cut of Iraq War planning was "Regional states would not interfere."

Rare sappy personal thread. Four years ago today, I opened a restaurant, a dream I had had for years. Two years ago today, I closed that restaurant. I’ve just been accumulating thoughts since then, so here they are. 1/ My first thought is of my wife and sons. I regret the stress I put them through. I worked 70+ hours a week for about three years. My wife supported our family and my youngest was born just before the restaurant opened. I missed out on so many memories of his development. 2/

New paper out today: The Case for Withdrawing from the Middle East. THREAD (1/): defensepriorities.org/explainers/the… The US is in the Middle East for three main reasons: oil, Israel, and terrorism. There must be something witchy about those things, because the region is a dwarf: ~3% of world GDP, ~3.5-5% world population. If a single state possessed those resources, we wouldn't worry much (2/)

This morning my piece ran in @TheNatlInterest arguing that everybody is concerned about China and nobody has a clear idea what to do about it. Here's a thread laying out the argument: nationalinterest.org/feature/no-one… The article takes as a given that policy elites and the public are increasingly anxious about China's rise and would like to prevent China from taking on a more active political role in Asia. But it points to three important problems with existing policy:

This Walter Russell Mead offering is the dumbest thing I’ve read in a long time. wsj.com/articles/the-c… “our technologically sophisticated global way of life is a lot more vulnerable to disruption than the simpler world of our ancestors.” We are literally having groceries delivered to our doors. Also the Spanish flu had its own..disruption.

Here it is. Sohrab Ahmari’s best tweet. All of the Eyes Wide Shut naysayers are like the critics who, having heard it was pornographic, went and reviewed it as “not sexy.” There was nudity, and even screwing, but the naked and screwing parts weren’t sexy. 1/

A thread of unpopular opinions about It’s a Wonderful Life: 1/ The film, structurally, is a recast of a 30s noir film. All the cut shots reveal it, plus it’s about a father of four about to commit suicide before Christmas. 2/

The greatest victory of the Blob is its effective banishment from Washington of those who forcefully reject its basic premises. The effect is to make critics look like fringe lunatics. John Birchers or the Flat Earth Society. 1/ They are not fringe lunatics. According to the three smartest academics who defend the broad strokes of US strategy, “most scholars who write on the future of US grand strategy [think] the time [has] finally come for retrenchment.” 2/ scholar.princeton.edu/sites/default/…

A thread about think tank ethics! Dennis Ross was hired by GOP fundraiser Elliott Broidy to advise him on Middle East issues. Broidy, at the same time, was taking millions of dollars in Saudi/Emirati money to flack for them and against Qatar. 1/ thedailybeast.com/gop-moneyman-e… Ross told Broidy he was placing an anti-Qatar, anti-al Jazeera op-ed in The Hill. Broidy thanked Ross, saying “I’m anxious to launch against in a serious way against al Jezeera (sic)… As discussed, you may invoice me at $10K” 2/