🧵: Ukraine-Russia Peace Talks – Key Takeaways
1/ Whatever the outcome of today’s talks in Turkey, this week marks a milestone in the Ukraine-Russia war, or rather the peace process to end it.
#Ukraine #Russia #Geopolitics 2/ This thread is based on our weekly analysis and in-depth private briefings. Please subscribe to get full weekly reports on #Ukraine straight in your inbox as well as access to future sessions insights.kyivindependent.com/newsletters

📩Our weekly report is out! 🧵 Subscribe to read full weekly reports on #Ukraine straight in your inbox: insights.kyivindependent.com/newsletters

🇺🇸 @ZelenskyyUa challenges US minerals deal, demands security guarantees; says he'd step down for @NATO membership. Meanwhile, Russia counters with Arctic energy & minerals proposals from occupied territories. EU nations pivot toward strategic independence from US. #Ukraine #Diplomacy 🚨 Starlink shutdown threats raise alarm over Ukraine's US dependencies. Despite aims for 2025 budget independence, Ukraine remains vulnerable with $31B US aid (2022-24). @realDonaldTrump 's Russia pivot & $500B resources deal add pressure. Critical military & comms infrastructure at stake. #UkraineWar #Diplomacy

📅 The Week Ahead: Key Global Security & Ukraine Developments 🧵

Europe will hold an emergency summit on security and Ukraine in Paris on Feb. 17 after the Trump administration’s explosive comments and moves last week. Key Euro states, NATO, the Commission and Council will attend – Zelensky’s participation is unclear. #Zelensky #MSC 🇺🇸🇺🇦Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg, is scheduled to visit Kyiv on Feb. 20. He was supposed to come before but didn’t — will this time be different? If yes, he may try to provide reassurance after last week’s shocks (but unclear how much weight that carries) #Ukraine #Trump

Ukraine’s mobilization data drive ended yesterday.
TLDR: enough people have submitted their information to meet mobilization needs (financing them is a different issue)
The bigger problem is up to 4M “lawbreakers”, a major social and political headache
A 🧵 The deadline for military aged men (and some women) to update their data ended July 16.
So far, just ~4.5M have done so, 3.2M via the purpose-built Reserve+ app.
An est. 8-9M people should have updated their data in the legally required term of May 18-July 16

🇸🇰 #Fico ’s political allies quickly blamed independent media and the opposition for “causing” the attack on the Slovak PM.

What are the political consequences of the assassination attempt? Our take 🧵👇 TLDR: The attack will be used to justify more control over media (ia public broadcaster), financing to civil society and the judiciary (ia prosecutor’s office)

It will raise Fico’s profile (strong-man mythos), possibly leading to a top role among EU eurosceptics/ conservatives

✉️ Our weekly digest is out! This week’s highlights: the largest military aid packages for 🇺🇦, social tensions over restrictions on men abroad, a reboot of the Ukrainian energy system, and regulating online gambling
🧵 🛡 The UK is sending a significant military package, potentially including #ATACMS missiles, following the US aid decision. At the same time, Scholz's position on sending #TAURUS missiles to Ukraine remains unchanged. Spain, at the #Ramstein meeting, pledged to send #Patriot system missiles, expected this week.

🔍 We believe the goal is not to help Ukraine win back territory….