I haven’t been tweeting lately because of *gestures at everything* but I can’t resist sharing some shots I took in ⁦@YosemiteNPS⁩ last week. ⁦Hope you enjoy! ⁦@YoseConservancy⁩

El Capitan in clearing mist Bridalveil Falls peeks out behind a striking redbud bush
@YosemiteNPS @YoseConservancy

On the comps issue: I have spent a lot of time on grad program reform, and it is very frustrating. The basic problem is that it’s hard to assess how any feature of the program affects the outcomes we care about, which depend on many factors and are only realized years later. 1/ There’s lots of variation across programs, which in principle could be used to study the effectiveness of different models, but in practice there is too much heterogeneity in other characteristics. Should we all go to oral comp exams because Harvard PhDs do well on the market? 2/

I’m sure I’ll regret weighing in on this, but: most people aren’t questioning the science behind the CDC’s recommendation, they’re questioning the social science. 1/4 One of the key lessons of social science is that self-interested behavior often means that first-best outcomes from the perspective of society aren’t possible, and we’re in a world of second bests (at best). 2/4

The "not a democracy" crowd is engaged in a dishonest bait and switch where reasonable limits on majority on rule are used to justify more expansive assaults on democratic rights and norms. 1/8

https://twitter.com/SenMikeLee/status/1314089207875371008

Most agree that liberal democracy requires some limits on what majorities can do, so that they do not run roughshod over the rights and welfare of minorities. And the US system has plenty of mechanisms that check majority rule which we consider consistent with democracy. 2/8

I don't know the answer to this puzzle, but I think there are three classes of candidate explanations, which we can call impatience, incompetence, and ideology. I don't think they are mutually exclusive.

1/11

https://twitter.com/dhnexon/status/1282368100504145920

The first center on Trump's personal traits, esp. his narcissism and inability to delay gratification. Beating this required high short-term costs for long-term benefit. But he is so obsessed with "winning" each daily news cycle that he was incapable of making this trade-off. 2/

I don't know what Trump is going to do, and even if he does take this moment to de-escalate, it's likely temporary, since the underlying issues are not resolved.

But the question has come up if Trump would incur audience costs for backing down, and I want to weigh in.

Thread... First, in Fearon's original conjecture, audience costs were not an automatic response from the public. Instead, he argued that backing down in a crisis gave domestic political opponents ammunition to charge the leader with soiling the country's honor or credibility.

OK, time to cross the streams of the “Colonialism is good” thread and the #Nambia gaffe with a charming story of Western ignorance. 1/n Wonder why Namibia has that odd strip of land pointing east like a finger? It’s the Caprivi Strip, after German chancellor Leo von Caprivi.