While waiting to go on air, @DavidJUrban and I were discussing how the election is playing in Pennsylvania, which led to us speculating how each character on The Office would vote. 🧵 Michael Scott: probably has a dogeared copy of Art of the Deal in his desk. Watched The Apprentice. Obama -> Trump voter.

**sighs in nearly every exit poll result from before 2006**

This is incorrect.

https://twitter.com/theamishdude/status/1590343415874846725

2004. Bush loses voters under 30 by only a single digit margin. Wins voters 30-44 (the age range most of todays millennials are in) by 7.

This weekend, I wrote about how younger voters a less reliable group for Democrats in this midterm.

Now, let's look at the latest CNN poll for some more evidence this might be coming to pass...cnn.com/2022/10/29/opi… On job approval: while voters under 30 are Biden's best age crosstab, it's not great. Only 47% approval. Only 10% *strong* approval. s3.documentcloud.org/documents/2325…

A few interesting poll findings relevant to the House GOP Conference race that concluded this morning. Many of the issues - climate, LGBT issues, immigration - where @RepStefanik took more centrist views are areas where younger and older Republicans differ... Some new polling from @pewresearch shows Republicans under age 35 much more supportive of a pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrations (62%) vs. Republicans over age 35 (46% or less). pewresearch.org/politics/2021/…

Thread on the new @EchelonInsights polling about voter priorities and what Republicans in particular are looking for. Unlike traditional "top issue" questions, here we asked people to rate EACH issue on how much it concerns them. We tested these issues with everyone... Of the issues we presented to ALL respondents, the economic damage from COVID-19 is the top concern in large part because it is the most bipartisan - three-quarters of GOP and Dems are very/extremely concerned.

There are a lot of polls coming out today, tomorrow, and this weekend. Before they do, looking at the data today, even assuming the polls are right, there is still a path for Trump. It is narrow, but it is real. Current polling averages in the Sun Belt states - FL, NC, AZ, TX, GA - all have Trump in striking distance. They are tied or within just a point or two. Not enough for me to say confidently which way they'll go. If they all go Trump, that's ALMOST enough...

This research project is near and dear to my heart: an exploration of where Millennials and Generation Z think their futures are headed, how they define success, and what they think drives access to opportunity.

Report is out today ---> waltonfamilyfoundation.org/about-us/newsr… Our research involved surveys of over 2000 Millennials + 2000 Gen Zers nationwide plus in-depth qualitative with over a hundred respondents.

How Millennials view themselves: Resilient, persistent, entrepreneurs.

How Gen Zers view themselves: Conscious, innovative, outspoken.

Results of new Morning Consult + Monmouth polls: Americans...
-Think protesters have good reason to be angry about racial injustice
-Think police are more likely to use excessive force against Black people
-Like their local police
-Are ok with using military to stop riots Clear majority say the anger that led to the protests is fully justified. (Screengrabs from @databyler’s feed - this is from Monmouth).

NEW POLL: @pewresearch gives us a first glimpse into the political views of Gen Z. Turns out they’re just as left-leaning as the Millennials. GOP now has a TWO generation problem. pewsocialtrends.org/2019/01/17/gen… I am often asked if the pendulum will swing back and if Gen Z might actually be more right-leaning than the Obama-era Millennials. Current verdict: no.