Tin Deep Dive - Part 1 🧵

We’ll cover one by one both the producers and developers/explorers that make up the investable universe for this metal - breaking down fundamentals and charts. Enjoy!

Producers (majority revenue from tin):
• Alphamin Resources $AFM (TSXV) – Materials 🇨🇦
• Andrada Mining $ATM (LSE AIM) – Materials 🇬🇧
• Metals X $MLX (ASX) – Materials 🇦🇺
• Malaysia Smelting Corporation $5916 (Bursa Malaysia) 🇲🇾
• PT Timah $TINS (IDX) 🇮🇩
• Minsur S.A. $MINSURI1 (BVL) 🇵🇪
• Yunnan Tin Company $000960 (SZSE) 🇨🇳

Developers / Explorers:
• Cornish Metals $CUSN (LSE AIM, TSXV) 🇬🇧🇨🇦
• First Tin $1SN (LSE) 🇬🇧
• Elementos Limited $ELT (ASX) 🇦🇺
• Stellar Resources $SRZ (ASX) 🇦🇺
• TinOne Resources $TORC (TSXV) 🇨🇦
• Tincorp Metals $TIN (TSXV) 🇨🇦
• Rome Resources $RMR (LSE AIM) 🇬🇧
• Eloro Resources $ELO (TSX) 🇨🇦 Tin Deep Dive - Part 2 🧵

Alphamin Resources $AFM (TSXV)🇨🇦

We’ve got to start with perhaps the most popular tin company out there. It’s in the DRC, so you’ve got to be comfortable with jurisdiction risk. Long life, expansion completed, low cost producer, you can find everything you could wish for here.

Now to the chart. We all want to know whether it’s a bargain after all. Let’s put it this way: if I were a larger shareholder, I would hold my position and enjoy the ride, looking for a trend change as a signal to exit. If I weren’t, I’d probably wait for a larger pullback like we saw in March April this year, or less dramatic one.

Time for another PGMs update - Thread 🧵 (1/13)

Eventful past few weeks after all!

Platinum, palladium, rhodium – the forgotten metals, until recently that is. Wild volatility, thin markets, and big leverage in the stocks.

We’ll go through the charts metal by metal, then stock by stock.

Starting with $PL / $PPLT, $PA / $PALL and Rhodium.

Then on deck: $SBSW $VALT $IMPUY $NPH $ARI $PLG $SLP $ELR $SPD 🧵(2/13) Platinum – $PL / $PPLT

Beautiful price action! All about $1,550 now; as long as it holds, the momentum is on.

In that case, let's see if we push higher towards the $1,740 recent high and above, or enter longer range-bound consolidation.

Offshore Drilling Deep Dive - Part 1 🧵

In this thread, we’ll walk through key publicly traded offshore drilling companies, reviewing their fundamentals and chart setups to get a clearer sense of where we are in the cycle.

Note: There are outstanding experts in this field, and we rely on their deep, precise analysis. We use that bull case, watch for catalysts in the broader sector cycle, and trade it when the setup aligns.

$NE – Noble Corporation 🇺🇸
$VAL – Valaris Ltd. 🇺🇸
$RIG – Transocean Ltd. 🇺🇸/🇨🇭
$SDRL – Seadrill Limited 🇧🇲 (Bermuda)
$BORR – Borr Drilling 🇧🇲 (Bermuda)
$ODL – Odfjell Drilling 🇳🇴
$2883 – China Oilfield Services 🇨🇳 (Hong Kong)
$2382 – ADES Holding 🇸🇦 (Saudi Arabia)
$SHLF – Shelf Drilling Ltd. 🇳🇴/ 🇦🇪 (HQ Dubai)
$APEX – Apexindo Pratama Duta 🇮🇩 (Indonesia)
$JINDRILL – Jindal Drilling 🇮🇳 (India)
$ABAN – Aban Offshore 🇮🇳 (India) Offshore Drilling Deep Dive - Part 2 🧵

$NE – Noble Corporation 🇺🇸

First note: The energy sector is in the bottoming process, especially oil. We’re looking at contrarian opportunities for the next bull cycle in oil & gas. Each company has its own story, but when the wind turns, we want to be ready.

We have to start with one of the leaders in global offshore drilling. After its 2024 merger with Diamond Offshore, Noble now operates one of the largest and most modern fleets in the industry. Solid backlog and improving day-rates.

Currently consolidating after the April market crash rebound, a pattern seen across much of the sector. We have no position at the moment, but we’re watching closely for the first accumulation entry.

Agriculture Deep Dive | Fertilizers - Part 1 🧵

Starting a series where we look at leading agricultural companies and their charts.

First focus: fertilizer producers, the foundation of global food supply 🌾

Bear with me, it’ll take a bit to get through them all. Some today, others later.

Producers :

$NTR – Nutrien Ltd – Potash, Nitrogen, Phosphate – 🇨🇦 Canada
$SQM – Sociedad Quí. y Min. de Chile – Potash, Phosphate – 🇨🇱 Chile
$MOS – The Mosaic Company – Phosphate, Potash – 🇺🇸 United States
$CF – CF Industries – Nitrogen – 🇺🇸 United States
$YAR.OL – Yara International – Nitrogen, NPK – 🇳🇴 Norway
$ICL – ICL Group – Potash, Phosphate, NPK – 🇮🇱 Israel
$SDF.DE – K+S AG – Potash – 🇩🇪 Germany
$2020.SR – SABIC Agri-Nutrients – Nitrogen – 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia
$ATT.WA – Grupa Azoty – Nitrogen, NPK – 🇵🇱 Poland
$0297.HK – Sinofert Holdings – NPK – 🇨🇳 China
$IPI – Intrepid Potash – Potash – 🇺🇸 United States
$PHOR.ME – PhosAgro – Phosphate – 🇷🇺 Russia
$NPK.TO – Verde AgriTech – Potash – 🇧🇷 Brazil
$UAN – CVR Partners, LP – Nitrogen – 🇺🇸 United States
$IFOS.V – Itafos – Phosphate – 🇨🇦 Canada

Developers / Explorers

$DAN.V – Arianne Phosphate – Phosphate – 🇨🇦 Canada
$MNB.AX – Minbos Resources – Phosphate – 🇦🇴 Angola
$GSP.V – Gensource Potash – Potash – 🇨🇦 Canada
$KP2.L – Kore Potash – Potash – 🇨🇬 Republic of the Congo
$EML.L – Emmerson plc – Potash – 🇲🇦 Morocco
$PHOS.CN – First Phosphate Corp – Phosphate – 🇨🇦 Canada
$PHO.AX – PhosCo Ltd – Phosphate – 🇹🇳 Tunisia
$AEV.AX – Avenira Ltd – Phosphate – 🇦🇺 Australia
$AMN.AX – Agrimin Ltd – Potash – 🇦🇺 Australia
$AGR.AX – Aguia Resources – Phosphate – 🇧🇷 Brazil
$SAGE.V – Sage Potash Corp – Potash – 🇺🇸 United States
$MLP.V – Millennial Potash Corp – Potash – 🇬🇦 Gabon

x.com/Kacper_PK_CH/s… Agriculture Deep Dive | Fertilizers - Part 2 🧵

$NTR – Nutrien Ltd – Potash, Nitrogen, Phosphate – 🇨🇦 Canada

Full disclosure, I'm a shareholder. It's a go-to name in the fertilizer sector; it has everything one could want. It's also where big funds move first when seeking exposure.

They've bought back a lot of stock in the last 5 years; I assume they can do even more with right profit. Major production in Canada, but also in the USA. Still, the tariffs situation remains unclear. Earnings are in 3 days, so we'll have more detailed information.

It will require patience; technically, it's not in an immediate uptrend. It's a giant and won't move as much as some alpha plays, but it has something many other companies don't - a quite liquid options market.

Fear & Greed Index - Thread 🧵

There are so many posts about it with little understanding, I felt I should break it down a bit.

We're not at 43, in FEAR, yet almost at all-time highs, so what does it really mean? Fear & Greed Index Thread 🧵(1/7)

Indicator Number 1 - Market Momentum

Extreme Greed right now

There are 7 Fear & Greed indicators, first one is momentum. Easy to understand, largely depends on the direction / trend and speed, here driven by darlings of the market, with $NVDA on the top.

Weekly Markets Update – August 11, 2025 - Part 1

“Letting your emotions override your plan or system is the biggest cause of failure.” – J. Welles Wilder Jr., inventor of RSI – Relative Strength Index, 2007 Interview for TradersLog.com

J. Welles Wilder Jr. was an engineer and a highly successful real estate developer before turning his attention to commodity trading. He started strong, booked solid profits, but then learned the hard way that you can also lose money in commodity markets. Methodical and driven, he studied technical analysis to truly understand market behavior. And at the time, technical analysis was neither advanced nor widely used, so he developed his own trading system. This work led to the publication of "New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems" book (1978, self-published). The rest is history. He is now considered the father of modern technical analysis and is best known for creating the Relative Strength Index (RSI), Average True Range (ATR), Directional Movement (DMI), and the Parabolic Stop and Reverse (SAR).

I chose this quote because Wilder’s work was fundamental to my own market journey. It helped shape my process, which is built entirely on logic and strict reasoning. The goal is to determine what arguments are valid, weigh the evidence, and assign probabilities to arrive at the best possible conclusions.

The process is straightforward. I read the trend using techincal analysis, overlay market participant positioning, weight in fundamentals and allocate accordingly. When all these factors align, I go big, I make the position matter, and stick with it until the underlying setup changes. Those who have been following for a while will remember some of the key turns we caught: the gold and silver breakout in 2024, the summer 2024 carry trade unwind, the dollar surge late last year, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq collapse in April, the recent platinum and palladium moves, and the copper tariff rug pull. I will never catch every move, but I will catch enough. And more importantly - when the time comes I will follow the process and I will exit, no matter how uncomfortable, I will sell even my favorite names or sectors if the setup changes, regardless of how strong the long-term story appears to be.

This sets the tone for the week. Short enough to read, but hopefully useful. Here is what is ahead, with highlights before Monday. This is update number forty-seven. Over the last year, I have shared trades, setups, and insights with a focus on what matters. The summary table remains clear, covering indices, forex, treasuries, metals, energy, and agricultural commodities. Weekly Markets Update – August 11, 2025 – Part 2

Trend Changes - August 4 → August 11, 2025:

Short-Term Trend Changes:

📈 Indices
• NASDAQ 100: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Uptrend 🟩
• MSCI EAFE – Developed Markets: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Uptrend 🟩
• MSCI EM – Emerging Markets: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Uptrend 🟩
• HSI Hang Seng – Hong Kong, China: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Uptrend 🟩
• NIKKEI Yen Denominated: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Uptrend 🟩

💱 Forex – Currency Pairs
• DXY – USD Dollar Index: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Uptrend 🟩
• CHF/USD – Swiss Franc: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Downtrend 🟥
• ZAR/USD – South African Rand: Downtrend 🟥 ➝ Sideways 🟨
• SGD/USD – Singapore Dollar: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Downtrend 🟥
• KRW/USD – South Korean Won: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Downtrend 🟥
• TWD/USD – New Taiwan Dollar: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Downtrend 🟥

📊 Treasuries
• 2-Year T-Note: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Uptrend 🟩
• 5-Year T-Note: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Uptrend 🟩

🛢 Energies
• Crude Oil (CL): Uptrend 🟩 ➝ Sideways 🟨
🔩 Industrial Metals
• Aluminum: Downtrend 🟥 ➝ Sideways 🟨
• Uranium Spot Price: Downtrend 🟥 ➝ Sideways 🟨
• Zinc: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Uptrend 🟩

🌾 Agriculture
• Urea Fertilizer (USA): Uptrend 🟩 ➝ Sideways 🟨
• Coffee C: Downtrend 🟥 ➝ Sideways 🟨
• Lumber: Uptrend 🟩 ➝ Sideways 🟨
• Rough Rice: Downtrend 🟥 ➝ Sideways 🟨
• Soybean Meal: Downtrend 🟥 ➝ Sideways 🟨
• Lean Hogs: Downtrend 🟥 ➝ Sideways 🟨

Medium-Term Trend Changes:

📈 Indices
• S&P 500 VIX: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Downtrend 🟥
• Russell 2000: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Uptrend 🟩
• DAX – Germany: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Uptrend 🟩

📊 Treasuries
• 30-Year T-Bond: Downtrend 🟥 ➝ Sideways 🟨

🔩 Industrial Metals
• Zinc: Downtrend 🟥 ➝ Sideways 🟨
• Nickel: Downtrend 🟥 ➝ Sideways 🟨

🌾 Agriculture
• Cotton No. 2: Downtrend 🟥 ➝ Sideways 🟨
• Soybeans: Downtrend 🟥 ➝ Sideways 🟨