Kacper Piotr Kaminski Profile picture
Active Trader. Lifelong Investor. Founder of Cerlogic Markets Research. Sharing real positions and trend alerts in equities, metals, energy, FX & agriculture.
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Nov 19 โ€ข 16 tweets โ€ข 10 min read
Tin Deep Dive - Part 1 ๐Ÿงต

Weโ€™ll cover one by one both the producers and developers/explorers that make up the investable universe for this metal - breaking down fundamentals and charts. Enjoy!

Producers (majority revenue from tin):
โ€ข Alphamin Resources $AFM (TSXV) โ€“ Materials ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฆ
โ€ข Andrada Mining $ATM (LSE AIM) โ€“ Materials ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง
โ€ข Metals X $MLX (ASX) โ€“ Materials ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡บ
โ€ข Malaysia Smelting Corporation $5916 (Bursa Malaysia) ๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡พ
โ€ข PT Timah $TINS (IDX) ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฉ
โ€ข Minsur S.A. $MINSURI1 (BVL) ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ช
โ€ข Yunnan Tin Company $000960 (SZSE) ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ

Developers / Explorers:
โ€ข Cornish Metals $CUSN (LSE AIM, TSXV) ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฆ
โ€ข First Tin $1SN (LSE) ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง
โ€ข Elementos Limited $ELT (ASX) ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡บ
โ€ข Stellar Resources $SRZ (ASX) ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡บ
โ€ข TinOne Resources $TORC (TSXV) ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฆ
โ€ข Tincorp Metals $TIN (TSXV) ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฆ
โ€ข Rome Resources $RMR (LSE AIM) ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง
โ€ข Eloro Resources $ELO (TSX) ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฆImage Tin Deep Dive - Part 2 ๐Ÿงต

Alphamin Resources $AFM (TSXV)๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฆ

Weโ€™ve got to start with perhaps the most popular tin company out there. Itโ€™s in the DRC, so youโ€™ve got to be comfortable with jurisdiction risk. Long life, expansion completed, low cost producer, you can find everything you could wish for here.

Now to the chart. We all want to know whether itโ€™s a bargain after all. Letโ€™s put it this way: if I were a larger shareholder, I would hold my position and enjoy the ride, looking for a trend change as a signal to exit. If I werenโ€™t, Iโ€™d probably wait for a larger pullback like we saw in March April this year, or less dramatic one.Image
Nov 15 โ€ข 13 tweets โ€ข 6 min read
Time for another PGMs update - Thread ๐Ÿงต (1/13)

Eventful past few weeks after all!

Platinum, palladium, rhodium โ€“ the forgotten metals, until recently that is. Wild volatility, thin markets, and big leverage in the stocks.

Weโ€™ll go through the charts metal by metal, then stock by stock.

Starting with $PL / $PPLT, $PA / $PALL and Rhodium.

Then on deck: $SBSW $VALT $IMPUY $NPH $ARI $PLG $SLP $ELR $SPDImage ๐Ÿงต(2/13) Platinum โ€“ $PL / $PPLT

Beautiful price action! All about $1,550 now; as long as it holds, the momentum is on.

In that case, let's see if we push higher towards the $1,740 recent high and above, or enter longer range-bound consolidation.Image
Nov 10 โ€ข 14 tweets โ€ข 8 min read
Offshore Drilling Deep Dive - Part 1 ๐Ÿงต

In this thread, weโ€™ll walk through key publicly traded offshore drilling companies, reviewing their fundamentals and chart setups to get a clearer sense of where we are in the cycle.

Note: There are outstanding experts in this field, and we rely on their deep, precise analysis. We use that bull case, watch for catalysts in the broader sector cycle, and trade it when the setup aligns.

$NE โ€“ Noble Corporation ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
$VAL โ€“ Valaris Ltd. ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
$RIG โ€“ Transocean Ltd. ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ/๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ญ
$SDRL โ€“ Seadrill Limited ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฒ (Bermuda)
$BORR โ€“ Borr Drilling ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฒ (Bermuda)
$ODL โ€“ Odfjell Drilling ๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ด
$2883 โ€“ China Oilfield Services ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ (Hong Kong)
$2382 โ€“ ADES Holding ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฆ (Saudi Arabia)
$SHLF โ€“ Shelf Drilling Ltd. ๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ด/ ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ช (HQ Dubai)
$APEX โ€“ Apexindo Pratama Duta ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฉ (Indonesia)
$JINDRILL โ€“ Jindal Drilling ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ณ (India)
$ABAN โ€“ Aban Offshore ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ณ (India)Image Offshore Drilling Deep Dive - Part 2 ๐Ÿงต

$NE โ€“ Noble Corporation ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ

First note: The energy sector is in the bottoming process, especially oil. Weโ€™re looking at contrarian opportunities for the next bull cycle in oil & gas. Each company has its own story, but when the wind turns, we want to be ready.

We have to start with one of the leaders in global offshore drilling. After its 2024 merger with Diamond Offshore, Noble now operates one of the largest and most modern fleets in the industry. Solid backlog and improving day-rates.

Currently consolidating after the April market crash rebound, a pattern seen across much of the sector. We have no position at the moment, but weโ€™re watching closely for the first accumulation entry.Image
Nov 2 โ€ข 31 tweets โ€ข 17 min read
Agriculture Deep Dive | Fertilizers - Part 1 ๐Ÿงต

Starting a series where we look at leading agricultural companies and their charts.

First focus: fertilizer producers, the foundation of global food supply ๐ŸŒพ

Bear with me, itโ€™ll take a bit to get through them all. Some today, others later.

Producers :

$NTR โ€“ Nutrien Ltd โ€“ Potash, Nitrogen, Phosphate โ€“ ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Canada
$SQM โ€“ Sociedad Quรญ. y Min. de Chile โ€“ Potash, Phosphate โ€“ ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฑ Chile
$MOS โ€“ The Mosaic Company โ€“ Phosphate, Potash โ€“ ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ United States
$CF โ€“ CF Industries โ€“ Nitrogen โ€“ ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ United States
$YAR.OL โ€“ Yara International โ€“ Nitrogen, NPK โ€“ ๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ด Norway
$ICL โ€“ ICL Group โ€“ Potash, Phosphate, NPK โ€“ ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ Israel
$SDF.DE โ€“ K+S AG โ€“ Potash โ€“ ๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช Germany
$2020.SR โ€“ SABIC Agri-Nutrients โ€“ Nitrogen โ€“ ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Saudi Arabia
$ATT.WA โ€“ Grupa Azoty โ€“ Nitrogen, NPK โ€“ ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฑ Poland
$0297.HK โ€“ Sinofert Holdings โ€“ NPK โ€“ ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ China
$IPI โ€“ Intrepid Potash โ€“ Potash โ€“ ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ United States
$PHOR.ME โ€“ PhosAgro โ€“ Phosphate โ€“ ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ Russia
$NPK.TO โ€“ Verde AgriTech โ€“ Potash โ€“ ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ท Brazil
$UAN โ€“ CVR Partners, LP โ€“ Nitrogen โ€“ ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ United States
$IFOS.V โ€“ Itafos โ€“ Phosphate โ€“ ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Canada

Developers / Explorers

$DAN.V โ€“ Arianne Phosphate โ€“ Phosphate โ€“ ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Canada
$MNB.AX โ€“ Minbos Resources โ€“ Phosphate โ€“ ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ด Angola
$GSP.V โ€“ Gensource Potash โ€“ Potash โ€“ ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Canada
$KP2.L โ€“ Kore Potash โ€“ Potash โ€“ ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฌ Republic of the Congo
$EML.L โ€“ Emmerson plc โ€“ Potash โ€“ ๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Morocco
$PHOS.CN โ€“ First Phosphate Corp โ€“ Phosphate โ€“ ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Canada
$PHO.AX โ€“ PhosCo Ltd โ€“ Phosphate โ€“ ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ณ Tunisia
$AEV.AX โ€“ Avenira Ltd โ€“ Phosphate โ€“ ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡บ Australia
$AMN.AX โ€“ Agrimin Ltd โ€“ Potash โ€“ ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡บ Australia
$AGR.AX โ€“ Aguia Resources โ€“ Phosphate โ€“ ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ท Brazil
$SAGE.V โ€“ Sage Potash Corp โ€“ Potash โ€“ ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ United States
$MLP.V โ€“ Millennial Potash Corp โ€“ Potash โ€“ ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Gabon

x.com/Kacper_PK_CH/sโ€ฆImage Agriculture Deep Dive | Fertilizers - Part 2 ๐Ÿงต

$NTR โ€“ Nutrien Ltd โ€“ Potash, Nitrogen, Phosphate โ€“ ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Canada

Full disclosure, I'm a shareholder. It's a go-to name in the fertilizer sector; it has everything one could want. It's also where big funds move first when seeking exposure.

They've bought back a lot of stock in the last 5 years; I assume they can do even more with right profit. Major production in Canada, but also in the USA. Still, the tariffs situation remains unclear. Earnings are in 3 days, so we'll have more detailed information.

It will require patience; technically, it's not in an immediate uptrend. It's a giant and won't move as much as some alpha plays, but it has something many other companies don't - a quite liquid options market.Image
Oct 30 โ€ข 9 tweets โ€ข 4 min read
Fear & Greed Index - Thread ๐Ÿงต

There are so many posts about it with little understanding, I felt I should break it down a bit.

We're not at 43, in FEAR, yet almost at all-time highs, so what does it really mean? Image Fear & Greed Index Thread ๐Ÿงต(1/7)

Indicator Number 1 - Market Momentum

Extreme Greed right now

There are 7 Fear & Greed indicators, first one is momentum. Easy to understand, largely depends on the direction / trend and speed, here driven by darlings of the market, with $NVDA on the top.Image
Aug 10 โ€ข 9 tweets โ€ข 14 min read
Weekly Markets Update โ€“ August 11, 2025 - Part 1

โ€œLetting your emotions override your plan or system is the biggest cause of failure.โ€ โ€“ J. Welles Wilder Jr., inventor of RSI โ€“ Relative Strength Index, 2007 Interview for TradersLog.com

J. Welles Wilder Jr. was an engineer and a highly successful real estate developer before turning his attention to commodity trading. He started strong, booked solid profits, but then learned the hard way that you can also lose money in commodity markets. Methodical and driven, he studied technical analysis to truly understand market behavior. And at the time, technical analysis was neither advanced nor widely used, so he developed his own trading system. This work led to the publication of "New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems" book (1978, self-published). The rest is history. He is now considered the father of modern technical analysis and is best known for creating the Relative Strength Index (RSI), Average True Range (ATR), Directional Movement (DMI), and the Parabolic Stop and Reverse (SAR).

I chose this quote because Wilderโ€™s work was fundamental to my own market journey. It helped shape my process, which is built entirely on logic and strict reasoning. The goal is to determine what arguments are valid, weigh the evidence, and assign probabilities to arrive at the best possible conclusions.

The process is straightforward. I read the trend using techincal analysis, overlay market participant positioning, weight in fundamentals and allocate accordingly. When all these factors align, I go big, I make the position matter, and stick with it until the underlying setup changes. Those who have been following for a while will remember some of the key turns we caught: the gold and silver breakout in 2024, the summer 2024 carry trade unwind, the dollar surge late last year, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq collapse in April, the recent platinum and palladium moves, and the copper tariff rug pull. I will never catch every move, but I will catch enough. And more importantly - when the time comes I will follow the process and I will exit, no matter how uncomfortable, I will sell even my favorite names or sectors if the setup changes, regardless of how strong the long-term story appears to be.

This sets the tone for the week. Short enough to read, but hopefully useful. Here is what is ahead, with highlights before Monday. This is update number forty-seven. Over the last year, I have shared trades, setups, and insights with a focus on what matters. The summary table remains clear, covering indices, forex, treasuries, metals, energy, and agricultural commodities.Image Weekly Markets Update โ€“ August 11, 2025 โ€“ Part 2

Trend Changes - August 4 โ†’ August 11, 2025:

Short-Term Trend Changes:

๐Ÿ“ˆ Indices
โ€ข NASDAQ 100: Sideways ๐ŸŸจ โž Uptrend ๐ŸŸฉ
โ€ข MSCI EAFE โ€“ Developed Markets: Sideways ๐ŸŸจ โž Uptrend ๐ŸŸฉ
โ€ข MSCI EM โ€“ Emerging Markets: Sideways ๐ŸŸจ โž Uptrend ๐ŸŸฉ
โ€ข HSI Hang Seng โ€“ Hong Kong, China: Sideways ๐ŸŸจ โž Uptrend ๐ŸŸฉ
โ€ข NIKKEI Yen Denominated: Sideways ๐ŸŸจ โž Uptrend ๐ŸŸฉ

๐Ÿ’ฑ Forex โ€“ Currency Pairs
โ€ข DXY โ€“ USD Dollar Index: Sideways ๐ŸŸจ โž Uptrend ๐ŸŸฉ
โ€ข CHF/USD โ€“ Swiss Franc: Sideways ๐ŸŸจ โž Downtrend ๐ŸŸฅ
โ€ข ZAR/USD โ€“ South African Rand: Downtrend ๐ŸŸฅ โž Sideways ๐ŸŸจ
โ€ข SGD/USD โ€“ Singapore Dollar: Sideways ๐ŸŸจ โž Downtrend ๐ŸŸฅ
โ€ข KRW/USD โ€“ South Korean Won: Sideways ๐ŸŸจ โž Downtrend ๐ŸŸฅ
โ€ข TWD/USD โ€“ New Taiwan Dollar: Sideways ๐ŸŸจ โž Downtrend ๐ŸŸฅ

๐Ÿ“Š Treasuries
โ€ข 2-Year T-Note: Sideways ๐ŸŸจ โž Uptrend ๐ŸŸฉ
โ€ข 5-Year T-Note: Sideways ๐ŸŸจ โž Uptrend ๐ŸŸฉ

๐Ÿ›ข Energies
โ€ข Crude Oil (CL): Uptrend ๐ŸŸฉ โž Sideways ๐ŸŸจ
๐Ÿ”ฉ Industrial Metals
โ€ข Aluminum: Downtrend ๐ŸŸฅ โž Sideways ๐ŸŸจ
โ€ข Uranium Spot Price: Downtrend ๐ŸŸฅ โž Sideways ๐ŸŸจ
โ€ข Zinc: Sideways ๐ŸŸจ โž Uptrend ๐ŸŸฉ

๐ŸŒพ Agriculture
โ€ข Urea Fertilizer (USA): Uptrend ๐ŸŸฉ โž Sideways ๐ŸŸจ
โ€ข Coffee C: Downtrend ๐ŸŸฅ โž Sideways ๐ŸŸจ
โ€ข Lumber: Uptrend ๐ŸŸฉ โž Sideways ๐ŸŸจ
โ€ข Rough Rice: Downtrend ๐ŸŸฅ โž Sideways ๐ŸŸจ
โ€ข Soybean Meal: Downtrend ๐ŸŸฅ โž Sideways ๐ŸŸจ
โ€ข Lean Hogs: Downtrend ๐ŸŸฅ โž Sideways ๐ŸŸจ

Medium-Term Trend Changes:

๐Ÿ“ˆ Indices
โ€ข S&P 500 VIX: Sideways ๐ŸŸจ โž Downtrend ๐ŸŸฅ
โ€ข Russell 2000: Sideways ๐ŸŸจ โž Uptrend ๐ŸŸฉ
โ€ข DAX โ€“ Germany: Sideways ๐ŸŸจ โž Uptrend ๐ŸŸฉ

๐Ÿ“Š Treasuries
โ€ข 30-Year T-Bond: Downtrend ๐ŸŸฅ โž Sideways ๐ŸŸจ

๐Ÿ”ฉ Industrial Metals
โ€ข Zinc: Downtrend ๐ŸŸฅ โž Sideways ๐ŸŸจ
โ€ข Nickel: Downtrend ๐ŸŸฅ โž Sideways ๐ŸŸจ

๐ŸŒพ Agriculture
โ€ข Cotton No. 2: Downtrend ๐ŸŸฅ โž Sideways ๐ŸŸจ
โ€ข Soybeans: Downtrend ๐ŸŸฅ โž Sideways ๐ŸŸจ