Kaleb Nygaard Profile picture
Centralverse | The Reserve Podcast | currently @Visa | previously @YPFSatYale @chicagofed
Jan 7, 2023 8 tweets 2 min read
Does the Fed use the minutes, published three weeks post-statement, like a mid-cycle meeting? Do they care if anyone reads the minutes? Can the Chair talk about the minutes for forward guidance?

These questions have come up many times in the last few months. I took a look.
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To start, a few months ago it was suggested that the Fed adjusts/shapes the minutes to clean up from the presser or they use it to redirect markets if they think they misunderstood the statement/presser.

Not so. Here's Yellen in June 2016:
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Jan 6, 2023 6 tweets 3 min read
🗣️New data set 📈📉

*Target* Fed Funds Rate 1971-present. I believe this is the first time this dataset has been collected in one place🥳🥳

This isn't available on FRED or anywhere else, as far as I know. docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
1/6 A few months ago @NickTimiraos posted a link to the results of a FOIA requested by @og_giesecke for an internal memo showing the "intended" fed funds rate 1971-84, which was nearly 12 years earlier than was available on FRED. drive.google.com/file/d/1lafHYm…
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Aug 13, 2022 14 tweets 9 min read
"The Federal Reserve is robbed!" 🏦🔫💰

...a headline written waaaay more times than I thought.

This evening I present 13 Fed robberies 🔥

1/15 Jun 1915: @RichmondFed watchman empties his clip at two intruders, squad of cops stake out roof, the intruders get away…until the next day when the head of the Richmond Fed comes out and says the guard “imagined” it all!!

(amazing full story drive.google.com/file/d/1AfWzwQ…)

2/15 ImageImage
Jan 15, 2022 13 tweets 6 min read
🥂Cheers to all of us for surviving the wait for the full suite of Fed nominees 🥂

I’ve written a lot about Fed diversity over the last few years. It’s time for a #FedThread 🎉 on the geographic diversity requirement for Governors.

1/13 The geographic diversity requirement for Governors is quite explicit. And it’s been there since the OG 1913 law.

“...not more than one [Governor] shall be selected from any one Federal Reserve district…”

2/13 Image
Dec 15, 2020 7 tweets 5 min read
In honor of @TheEconomist cover this week...

A sampling of 50 years of inflation on the cover of major magazines (18 in total)

[1/6] Inflation on the cover [2/6]
Nov 15, 2020 34 tweets 22 min read
“The Fed could have done more and probably should have done more” - Chair Powell

Time for a #FedThread on Diversity @federalreserve

- Yellen on why diversity matters
- Bostic’s suggestions
- The first Black Director
- My new database
- Charts 🎉
- More resources

[1/34] So so much could be said about why diversity matters.

But for starters let’s turn to 4 points Janet Yellen, first woman Fed Chair (maybe first woman Treas. Sec.) made at a @BrookingsInst conference:

1) “Basic fairness” - first for a reason, and honestly should be enough

[2/34]
Jul 14, 2020 19 tweets 6 min read
The @federalreserve Chair has been called the 2nd most powerful position in the world. How much do you know about the people that have sat in the chair?

Fed History thread🎉based on a massive new database we built for new Centralverse interactive centralverse.org/FedWatcher/Cha…
[1/19] To start, let me introduce you to the ten Chairs of the Federal Reserve. [2/19]
Feb 20, 2020 12 tweets 8 min read
While designing our "How does the FOMC work?" interactive, we created a database of all 179 members past and present.

[1/12] Here's a #chartthread summarizing what we found.

Full disclaimers at the end. centralverse.org/FedWatcher/FOM… [2/12] Undergrad Degrees:

Econ by far the most common...but only half of all FOMC members studied Econ in undergrad, and about the same breakdown holds for just the Govs/RBPres. Shout out to Allan Sproul for studying Pomology 🍊🍎🍐
Feb 3, 2020 91 tweets 150 min read
@PeterContiBrown @Claudia_Sahm @DavidBeckworth @dandolfa @sam_a_bell Still looking, but here’s an interesting paper on group think that is focused on the research divisions of central banks (as opposed to the policy makers). kolegia.sgh.waw.pl/pl/KAE/Documen… @PeterContiBrown @Claudia_Sahm @DavidBeckworth @dandolfa @sam_a_bell Also🔥🔥🔥from the Romers so I’m sure I’m the only one here who is reading it for the first time haha. “Results may indicate that the FOMC’s attempts to add information to the staff forecast are not just unsuccesful, but may lead to inappropriate actions” eml.berkeley.edu/~dromer/papers…