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Kasper Planeta Kepp Profile picture
Kasper Planeta Kepp
@KasperKepp
Computational biochemistry & biomedicine; protein evolution, disease modeling. Ph.D. Lund; Postdoc Yale & Stanford.
Nov 24, 2023 • 14 tweets • 9 min read
Since IndieSAGE now tries to revise history to appear mainstream, a short thread on what they actually were, what they did, who they were associated with, and why it matters for science and our democracy. /1 First of all, IndieSAGE is a zerocovid group: It recommended zerocovid in England as late as Aug 2020 and members supported zerocovid even into 2021. Trying to revise history, claiming "advice was largely in line with SAGE" is thus misinformation. /2


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Sep 17, 2023 • 12 tweets • 6 min read
Below a list of misinformation from @DrEricDing from the zero-covid group World Health Network who has been repeatedly debunked by others, documenting the scientific problem of @peterhotez's endorsement. whn.global/meet-our-team/
1. Danish @SSI_dk debunking misinformation on Danish covid numbers. cphpost.dk/?p=131358
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Aug 31, 2023 • 4 tweets • 4 min read
Just noting that the editor has a company selling N95 masks so for legal reasons and in democratic/public interest it may be fair to label the below advocating for intense post-pandemic use of HCW masks as a commercial / marketing advertisement.
co2radical.com.au/co2-monitoring…


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1) vaccines "last resort" that you "don't want to have to use" 2) chronic disability a "catastrophe for our species"; 3) "they killed the last queen by infecting her with covid"; 4) amplifying debunked Mpox fake news.




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Jun 30, 2023 • 10 tweets • 4 min read
@US_FDA is likely to approve #lecanemab next week after advisors "voted" for efficacy. Yet while statistically significant, this effect is very small (2.5%) & below clinically meaningful (MCID) (figure by my dear colleague prof. Poul Høilund-carlsen). /1
https://t.co/DmVr64jHvQcontent.iospress.com/articles/journ…
Three papers on minimal important difference exist; they all set CDR-SB at >1. https://t.co/gbeJU92EUB https://t.co/dUeSzdGrr8 Unfortunately Van Dyck et al. did not cite any of them when they claimed this regarding their 0.45 effect: /2 https://t.co/3uu5wI2ytPpubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/36641605/
pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/31417957/
ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P…
Jun 16, 2023 • 7 tweets • 4 min read
Jeg havde egentlig lagt pandemidebatten bag mig, men nødt til at reagere, da det her er Alternativets kampagneleder. Skolelukninger er nok det mest afklarede spørgsmål overhovedet i den pandemiske debat -holdning i strid med lang række studier og udmeldinger fra organisationer. Konsekvenser:
1) Scale of education loss ‘nearly insurmountable’ @UNICEF unicef.org/press-releases…

2) 15% flere børn ikke i stand til at læse simpel tekst
unicef.org/press-releases…

3) 39 milliarder tabte måltider, mange børn mistet vigtigste ernæringskilde
dlvr.it/RryRW8
Jun 1, 2023 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
I really hope that we can identify new preventable dementia causes and I consider certain infections to be plausible, although not proven, risk factors of dementia. However, this preprint and associated tweet (with 13,000 likes!) does not convince me. /1
The studied effect (Figure 3) is a slope-difference measure (regression discontinuity) of dementia risk of people eligible or not for vaccination. Such estimates require high precision, since slopes are very sensitive, but the data are very scattered. /2
Nov 5, 2022 • 7 tweets • 4 min read
Our analysis of pandemic excess deaths for the Nordic countries 🇩🇰🇫🇮🇮🇸🇳🇴🇸🇪is now published. #tldr:
-major dependencies on method and time-period used
-unusual 2018/2019 mortality years affect estimates
-concerns about @IHME_UW model. /1
doi.org/10.1093/ije/dy… IHME @IHME_UW (doi.org/10.1016/S0140-…) is a major outlier, giving 2x total Nordic excess death vs. other models. Our estimate of IHME expected deaths (red) seem inconsistent with register data and substantially too low, causing too high excess deaths for 🇩🇰🇫🇮🇸🇪. /2
Oct 29, 2022 • 13 tweets • 9 min read
I valgkampen ses nu en (gen)fortælling af minksagen som en fornuftig indsats, der ”blot” manglede lovhjemmel og kun lidt der kunne gøres anderledes. Nedenfor lidt om, hvorfor det er en temmelig misvisende udlægning af en af Danmarkshistoriens måske dårligst styrede kriser. Mink som virus-reservoir er en trussel, som forskerne var/er enige om skal håndteres. Den trussel var man bevidst om og handlede på i DK til sommer 2020, hvor syge mink blev slået ned, en standardpraksis anbefalet af bl.a. ECDC (også efter 4/11 2020).
ecdc.europa.eu/sites/default/…
Feb 6, 2022 • 14 tweets • 33 min read
Since Denmark decided to open, misinformation has circulated, incl. conspiracy theories reg. officially manipulated numbers, implying Danish doctors don't treat our patients ("eugenics"), reinfections, & misrepresenting data on psychiatric patients & children. 1/ Danish omicron infection is very high. As we test routinely on admission, we find many cases, incl. incidental admissions, as anticipated. Please see background by @M_B_Petersen & chief consultant at @SSTSundhed @sneermark /2


Feb 5, 2022 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
Hvor mange liv blev reddet ved "nedlukning"? 🤔
Det (igen relevante) spørgsmål illustrerer hvor polariseret coronadebatten har været, selv her i Danmark: I stedet for at forstå problemet og finde en konsensus får vi to ekstremer der let skydes ned.
Kan gøres bedre #dkmedier /1 Tallene er usikre, med en del misforståelser og forsimplinger, herunder hvad nedlukning dækker over, immunitet, sæson, heterogenitet, og tidshorisont:
De parametre, man skal inddrage, er velkendte men bliver sjældent omtalt, hvilket svækker debatten og giver "skyttegravskrig". /2
Jan 12, 2022 • 11 tweets • 4 min read
Reg. Alzheimer's disease (AD) & covid-19:
As a scientist with a research interest in both I'd like to clarify that there is no evidence that covid-19 causes AD, even less so a "steep rise" upon covid-19. There are (unsurprising) associations, but no data suggesting causality. /1 AD & other forms of dementia are important to the covid-19 discussion especially because i) dementia is a comorbidity of covid-19; ii) dementia patients are at special risk due to the pandemic (social isolation, mental and physical inactivity). /2
doi.org/10.1016/S0140-…
Jan 11, 2022 • 20 tweets • 26 min read
Reg. long-covid statements from Finland:
Claims of prolonged symptoms in 1 of 2 infected adults & sharp rise in Alzheimer's currently spread on social media. As this could have major implications for policy, full transparency and scrutiny is essential. /1
reuters.com/article/us-hea… The claims come from a Finnish government advisory panel on long-covid, making this notable. The panel stated that review of >4000 documents indicates 1 in 2 infected adults may suffer long-term symptoms and increase risk of Alzheimer's. Panel below: /2 stm.fi/documents/1271… Image
Dec 23, 2021 • 24 tweets • 8 min read
Vores massive testsystem, kapacitet & hvordan man måler epidemien er igen et emne, så nedenfor en tråd om både baggrund, nutid & fremtid for betydningen af test, både som tiltag til at kontrollere smitte og ift at overvåge epidemien i en "omikron-tid". ⬇️
videnskab.dk/forskerzonen/k… Den primære grund til at jeg kom på Twitter okt. sidste år den interne ophedede debat ml. forskere om testdynamik og positivprocent, hvor smittekurver ukritisk blev antaget at måle epidemiens størrelse selvom testtallet firedoblede fra maj til sep 2020. /1
Oct 28, 2021 • 6 tweets • 4 min read
Epidemien stiger som ventet -men @StineEskildsen der lavede den frygtskabende historie med Eric Ding om variant C.1.2 (de-bunket af forskerne bag studiet) har nu brugt Viggo Andreasen til at hævde at de små skolebørn på 6-11 år er det særlige problem.
1/6
ekstrabladet.dk/nyheder/samfun… Først et par ekspertudsagn om Eric Ding og debunking af Eskildsens C.1.2 historie:
2/6












Sep 9, 2021 • 7 tweets • 10 min read
This tweet summarizes everything that is wrong with the US public science debate right now, seen from Europe. Season, age & other confounders greatly change results but this author ignores them to build the case that FL has failed for political reasons.

1/5 We already had data indicating that FL has tougher Summer waves peaking in Aug, but milder Winter waves (FL is in Region 4, CA in R9, TX is R6).

The author could have made the same (flawed) analysis last Summer.

Or same analysis - with opposite conclusion - last Winter.

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Aug 25, 2021 • 8 tweets • 7 min read
This Danish article surprisingly argues for boosters ("3rd shot") for *full* population, due to: 1) waning antibodies 2) "looks like vaccinated people in Israel, where they vaccinated long before us, are getting sick again."

A few comments below.
1/6
 dr.dk/nyheder/viden/… Claim 1: Antibodies are *expected* to fall after infection/vax. But t-cells/B-cells remain. Waning antibodies is *not* equivalent to waning immunity.
2/6


Mar 11, 2021 • 21 tweets • 9 min read
Lidt kommentarer til en historie der i øjeblikket spredes via alle større medier og debatteres heftigt på sociale medier i anledning af 1-året for Danmarks nedlukning. "Forskere: Coronanedlukninger har afværget op mod 35.000 dødsfald i Danmark"

1/16 Mange undrer sig over det store tal og den enorme effekt af nedlukning. Påstande om, at 35.000 dødsfald er blevet undgået ved nedlukning gentages ivrigt. Nedenfor f.eks. Ekstrabladet:
ekstrabladet.dk/nyheder/samfun…

2/16
Feb 17, 2021 • 11 tweets • 6 min read
I forhold til strategien fremover:
Et flertal af forskere ser ud til at mene at:
1) Sars-cov-2 bliver endemisk sæsonvirus
2) Næppe kan udryddes regionalt (zerocovid)
3) Kommer til at minde om influenza på mange måder
nature.com/articles/d4158…
Minoriten for 2 er dog ret stor. /1 Sars-cov-2 er nok ca. dobbelt så smitsom som typisk sæsoninfluenza og 10% af verden har formentlig været smittet, så påstande om at den kan udryddes i Europa hvor den har slået hårdt igennem i to bølger virker usandsynlige. /2
apnews.com/article/virus-…
Jan 26, 2021 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Argumentet for fortsat nedlukning hviler på en misfortolkning af kontakttallet af Heunicke og Kolmos.
Kontakttallet vil automatisk nærme sig 1 efter en bølge, fordi det måler ændringen i epidemien, ikke dens størrelse. 1/3

dr.dk/nyheder/politi…

Flere virker (med rette!) forvirrede over at Rt stiger mens smitten falder. For myndighederne gør intet for at forklare det. En epidemi på konstant lavt blus har Rt ca. 1. Det er den proces vi ser nu - Rt vil nærme sig 1 uanset hvad. Samme proces sås derfor også efter april. 2/3
Jan 26, 2021 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
I stedet for fuld nedlukning (men fastholdte mildere restriktioner og god social afstand) kunne vi give for 25.000 kroner ekstra omsorg til alle vore 40.000 plejehjemsboere - dvs. dem, som primært dør - hver dag!
(hvis nedlukning koster 1 milliard pr. dag). Umiddelbart skønner jeg, fuld nedlukning redder ca. 5 liv pr. dag (om ca. 3-4 uger) i stabilt scenarie Rt=1 (mereffekt ift mildere restriktioner / allerede stor social afstand 33% = 3000 - 2000, =1000 færre smittede, IFR =0,5% = 5 færre døde, hvis PCR fanger ca. 1/3 af smitten)
Jan 15, 2021 • 13 tweets • 6 min read
With many empirical studies now showing more modest effects of lockdowns vs. other NPIs, voluntary behavior, and other confounders, the original model concluding large effects is increasingly criticized, incl. a comment in the journal that published it.
1) "we suggest that the model, and its conclusion that all NPIs apart from lockdown have been of low effectiveness, should be treated with caution with regard to policy-making decisions."
nature.com/articles/s4158…