Some numbers that illustrate how quickly Russia has scaled up its defense production for Ukraine versus the West:

The most important: Russia is producing ~250K artillery munitions per month—or ~3M a year, per NATO assessments. West is at 1.2M per year. cnn.com/2024/03/10/pol… Officials say Russia is currently firing around 10,000 shells a day, compared to just 2,000 a day from the Ukrainian side. The ratio is worse in some places along the 600-mile front, according to a European intelligence official.

Just in from the powerhouse team of @ZcohenCNN @evanperez @jamiegangel (and me): IC agencies have been working with the FBI since mid-May to examine some of the classified documents taken from Mar-a-Lago in order to determine their level of classification, sources say. This document-by-document review has also allowed the agencies to determine whether any immediate efforts needed to be made to protect sources and methods as a result of the documents being held at former President Donald Trump’s Florida residence and resort, the sources said.

The US intelligence community assesses that it will take “years” for the Russian military to recover from the damage it has sustained in carrying out its war in Ukraine, director for national intelligence Avril Haines said today. Haines: “And during this period, we anticipate that they're going to be more reliant on asymmetric tools that they have—tools such as cyberattacks, their efforts to try to control energy, even nuclear weapons—in order to try to manage and project power and influence globally."

New w/ @NatashaBertrand: Biden is under increasing pressure from key Middle East allies to come up with a viable plan to constrain Iran, with hopes for reviving JCPOA fading as he prepares for his first trip as POTUS to Israel and Saudi Arabia next month. cnn.com/2022/06/21/pol… The trip comes as Israel appears increasingly willing to take matters into its own hands, ramping up covert attacks on Iranian targets and leaving the US largely in the dark about it, multiple current and former officials familiar with the intelligence told CNN.

Bill Burns is giving his first public speech as CIA director at Georgia Tech — at a "moment of profound change on the international landscape," he says. Live now: Burns emphasizes CIA's focus on human intelligence, its foreign-facing posture and its apolitical mission.

JUST IN: Confirming Newsweek that the U.S. has issued a new warning to the Ukrainian government that the latest intelligence points to a full scale attack imminently, per Ukrainian and US officials.

At particular risk, the warning said, is the northeastern city of Kharkiv. Less than 30km across the border from Kharkiv in Russia, there has been a big build-up of Russian armor & support vehicles.

Ukraine says no plans to evacuate Kharkiv but the Ukrainian pres has called for a state of emergency across the country starting at midnight.

Both separatist regions in eastern Ukraine have now announced civilian evacuation orders, warning of an impending attack by Ukraine that...isn't happening.

Intel officials are closely tracking events in the Donbas, as USG warns Russia will likely use a false pretext to invade. A piece of context worth noting:

Moscow may not know exactly which disinfo thread it may use as pretext. Right now, officials say it's magnifying multiple narratives—any one of which might gain enough traction on social media for Russia to take advantage of it.

News: The CIA is quietly changing how it trains and manages its operations officers, according to multiple officials familiar with the move. cnn.com/2021/12/10/pol… This isn't an exact return to what used to be called "homebasing"—but it's analogous. Officers will stick with a mission center further into their careers, allowing for a little more focused career management over languages, assignments, etc.

I can confirm that there were scheduled meetings canceled as of today. On what grounds or until when, it’s not clear.

https://twitter.com/jonathanvswan/status/1339942641488842754

A defense official characterizes this change as “a very small change in schedule based on bandwidth and calendar.” Says responses to RFIs—requests for information—will continue. The “handful of meetings today were rescheduled to after Jan 1.”

KABUL—Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Mark Milley this week met with Taliban negotiators in Doha, the second such meeting he has had amid peace negotiations & rising violence, and the first known meetings between a Joint Chiefs chair and the Taliban. READ: defenseone.com/threats/2020/1… Milley also met with Ghani in Kabul on a four-day swing through the region. “The most important part of the discussions I had with both the Taliban and the government of Afghanistan was the need for a reduction in violence,” Milley said. “Everything else hinges on that.”

Milley: "There’s always comments about the force is tired, it’s been at war for 20 yrs. To a certain extent that’s true, but most of your younger part of the force has not actually deployed. And if there’s one common theme I get as I talk to troops is they would like to deploy." You can follow along here: brookings.edu/events/a-conve…

SCOOP: I got ahold of the draft passback, a working doc that shows the back&forth between DOD officials crafting the budget & OMB.

The detailed request shows what budget analysts say is an obvious effort to box in President-elect Biden. w/ @MarcusReports: defenseone.com/policy/2020/12… Most of the additional funds OMB is demanding DOD add to its budget request are “fabricated,” if not impossible given modest GDP growth and growing national debt, said one defense official involved in crafting the budget. And Biden will submit his own budget, of course. But:

In a particularly frank moment during an exit interview, departing Syria envoy Jim Jeffrey acknowledged to me that when it came to troop levels there, “We were always playing shell games to not make clear to our leadership how many troops we had there." defenseone.com/threats/2020/1… (It's hard not to read that in the context of Esper's dismissal — in part motivated by a perception in the White House that the Pentagon was slow-rolling withdrawal orders.)

I left an enormous amount on the cutting room floor from this interview. A few highlights:

.@MarcusReports and I can confirm that Anthony Tata is now the performing the duties of the top policy chief at the Pentagon following James' Anderson's resignation, according to a succession memo signed by Acting Defense Secretary Christopher Miller and obtained by @DefenseOne. Tata is deeply, deeply controversial. Trump nominated him to hold the position permanently, but his confirmation tanked over the summer. defenseone.com/policy/2020/07…

From Guard Maj. Adam DeMarco's prepared testimony on Lafayette clearing:

"From where I was standing, approximately 20 yards from the demonstrators, the announcements were barely audible and I saw no indication that the demonstrators were cognizant of the warnings to disperse." This is maybe the most 👀 part: According to Maj. DeMarco—who was acting as the liaison between the DC National Guard and the DC Government’s Department of Health and was on the scene at the time—the Park Police told him tear gas wasn't being deployed. But DeMarco recognized it.

I just spoke v briefly to DOJ spox @KerriKupecDOJ—who has confirmed presence of BOP personnel in DC—& asked why they're declining to ID themselves. (BOP is part of DOJ & some of these officers have been identifying themselves as DOJ.) "I don't know anything about that," she said.

https://twitter.com/GarrettHaake/status/1268233764070731778

I've asked for information on what authority they are operating under; how many of them there are; and what's up with their broad refusal to identify themselves. More to come, I hope.

JUST IN: Acting Navy Secretary calls for a follow-on investigation of the COVID outbreak on the Roosevelt, citing "unanswered questions" that call for "a more fulsome understanding" of the situation — delaying a decision on the possibility of reinstating Brett Crozier. Reaction from House Armed Services Committee Chair Adam Smith, D-Wash.:

https://twitter.com/AlexWardVox/status/1255502157215825920?s=20

DOD in 2019, summed up in one quote from Eric Chewning, the chief of staff to the acting defense secretary, who briefed reporters today on DOD's succession plans:

"It’s very important for everybody in the world to know, we have a plan." Chewning con't: "Only one person will serve as the secretary of defense. That person has all the authorities necessary at the appointed time to defend American interests and protect the homeland."

HFAC ranking member Mike McCaul, R-Texas, on competing with China in Africa: "The U.S. is their preferred partner. But we are simply not there." McCaul also says that he is concerned that the proposed reduction in SOF on the continent is "premature."

This is sort of wow: UK Maj. Gen. Chris Ghika, deputy commander for strategy and information for the US-led counter-ISIS mission, tells Pentagon reporters "We don’t see any increased threat from [Iranian-backed militias] at this stage." Ghika: "We’ve seen no change in the posture or laydown of the PMF. Of course PMF is a very broad range of groups. Many of the are compliant and we have seen no change in their posture since the recent exchange between the U.S. and Iran."

Hey from Hart 216, where CENTCOM head Votel is appearing before the Senate Armed Services Committee right now, likely for the last time. You can see where ranking member Jack Reed is going to go today—in his opening statement, he talks ISIS capabilities and "contradictory statements" from POTUS, Bolton and others on Syria withdrawal that he says "underscore that this decision was anything but thoughtful."