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Dr. Kelly Hereid Profile picture
Dr. Kelly Hereid
@KellyHereid
Climate scientist/geo into all flavors of hazards at Liberty Mutual: hurricane, flood, wildfire, earthquake, volcano? Views mine. 🟦🌫️ @kellyhereid.bsky.social
Jul 19, 2023 • 32 tweets • 6 min read
So this piece is making the rounds, and it's disappointing that a genuinely useful message is undercut by some basic errors. But in a sense, that's precisely the (unintentional) point here, so saddle up, long 🧵 time 1/ First of all, some points are just wrong. If you're going to criticize models for not including feedbacks, you need to get the list right. 2/
Feb 17, 2023 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
SUPER excited to see this paper out in the world - quantifying property overvaluation from climate-influenced flood risk. Was lucky enough to see an early draft, so let's dive in shall we? 🧵nature.com/articles/s4155… 1/ Image First, I want to emphasize the value that catastrophe models can bring to interesting climate/economic problems if they're willing to publish (few are). Tools that tie hazards to economic impacts are really powerful for laying out adaptation choices. Too few are public. 2/
Aug 29, 2021 • 13 tweets • 4 min read
So, there is going to be a lot of Monday morning quarterbacking about the decision to not issue mandatory evacuations in NOLA, as Ida is now a 150mph beast and maybe still climbing. Compiling a few threads from the last few days, so, saddle up. 1/n First of all, this was an incredible track forecast. Spot on, days ago. 2/n
Aug 29, 2021 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
Helpful map of where levees are under 15ft. These will be at risk of overtopping, so hopefully if that happens their armoring will hold.

Storm surge from Ida could overtop some West Bank levees; officials say they will hold nola.com/news/hurricane… via @nolanews For context, here's the NHC potential inundation layer, with intertidal areas off to see depths better. Forecasting surge depths over coastal marsh is tough, though.
Aug 9, 2019 • 16 tweets • 4 min read
So, I imagine @oneconcerninc is currently formulating a response to this @nytimes piece, but here are some personal thoughts, from yours truly, sitting in a space that intersects with its field fairly closely. nytimes.com/2019/08/09/us/… 1/n So to wade in... What One Concern has built is a catastrophe model. We can quibble about how it's done it, whether it uses public data/AI/magical fairy dust/whatever, but that's what it is - a model that predicts damage from a disaster 2/n