I know some of these take a few minutes to read, but sometimes it takes a few minutes to really dig into a topic.
Please read and share this. We keep hearing about how Donald Trump might be a felon but his policies are good for the economy. No they aren't. He would be a disaster.
Before getting into that, though, let's clear up some misconceptions about Trump's first-time performance. He inherited a strong economy, and the first three years were just the ripple effect of that economy.
But what he is saying he would do if he had another term is not merely "repeat" what he did his first term. He wants to double down on his worst policies, which could send us into the worst economic disaster since the Great Depression and arguably even worse.
His policies would cause runaway inflation, a contracted economy, a massive increase in poverty, food scarcity, another housing crisis, and a massive spike in crime.
Since I can't do inline links, I will include a citation such as [1] which will correspond with a link in a subsequent post.
RUNAWAY INFLATION
There are several reasons inflation would be an issue.
First, he says there will be mass deportations, using the police, the National Guard, and, if necessary, the military to carry that out. [1]
The plan is to open up massive deportation camps and send the immigrants there before deporting them. This would include parents and spouses of American citizens. [1]
About 36% of field workers in the US are undocumented workers [2]. Some say it could be as high as 75%. [3]
This would have a massive impact on produce [1, 4], but there are other areas, such as dairy [5] where the question "Who will milk our cows?" arises. Estimates are that it would cost us 50% of our milk production [4].
The basic premise of prices is that it's an issue of supply and demand. If you cut down supply by 50% with no corresponding decrease in demand, the price is going up.
But furthermore, Trump wants to put an across-the-board tariff of 10% on all products [1]. We rely on imports for about 42% of our produce [4]. So if you slap a 10% tariff on that produce, that means a 10% increase on prices of imports while you're also forcing a massive price increase on domestics, due to the lack of goods.
And it's not just agriculture. Per Robert J. Shapiro of the Washington Monthly,
Despite the popular misconception that most of these unauthorized immigrants are farm workers, only 4 percent, or 283,000, work in agriculture. Mass deportation would be particularly damaging to the construction industry, which employs 1.5 million or 21 percent of all working unauthorized immigrants, and hospitality companies, which employ 1.1 million or 16 percent. Another 1 million or 14 percent of working unauthorized immigrants have jobs providing professional, scientific, technical, or administrative services; 10 percent or 714,000 work in manufacturing; and 8 percent or 570,000 have jobs in retail.
So, the construction industry and the hospitality industry would have a huge impact, too. As would manufacturing.
That would mean the prices of all those things would also go up. And when you have prices from multiple industries go up, that causes the prices of other things to go up.
And on top of all that, Trump promises to cut interest rates, which would also cause inflation. (The whole point of raising them was to cut inflation.)
So if you are REALLY worried about inflation, the worst thing you can do is vote for Trump.
UNEMPLOYMENT
There's this myth that undocumented workers are "bad" because they "take our jobs." But the reality is that when you deport undocumented workers, it actually increases unemployment among American citizens.
In fact, "For every one million unauthorized immigrant workers seized and deported from the United States, 88,000 U.S. native workers were driven out of employment." [6]
With 11 million undocumented workers, that would come out to almost 1 million American jobs lost--as well as the millions of jobs vacated by the undocumented workers.
Why is that? "Business owners hit by sudden reductions to labor supply invest less in new business formation. They invest their capital in other industries and in technologies that use lower-skill labor less intensively, reducing demand for U.S. workers too."
So you'd be talking about the combination of high inflation and high unemployment at the same time, which is reminiscent of the recession in 1980.
But that's not all.
HOUSING
Here's something you may not have thought about. Undocumented workers own about 3.4 million homes in the United States.
Now, think about that. That's how many mortgages? And in turn, how many foreclosures? For perspective, in 2008 there were 3.1 million, and that caused the economic collapse and housing recession.
And that in turn affects wages. One study from 2017 shows that mass deportations could drop median household income by as much as 47%! [7]
Now, think of the impact of that recession stacked on the recession of 1980. And then, as a result of not having the farm labor, think of all of that combined with the food scarcity of the Dust Bowl during the Great Depression.
How long before tech starts more massive layoffs? How much is that going to impact car sales? And so on and so forth.
Furthermore, to deport 11.2 million workers would cost the US Government between 400 billion and 600 billion dollars. And that study was from 2015! It would obviously be higher now. [8]
And the economy would actually contract by as much as 9 percent [9], which would significantly reduce tax revenue. The combination would have a massive impact on the national debt.
Voting for Trump's policies is a vote to destroy the economy while increasing the national debt—two things the GOP keeps saying they're against.
CRIME
Republicans also say they're against crime (unless it's Trump committing them, but that's another thing). Trump's plan includes police being committed to rounding up and guarding undocumented workers in the aforementioned camps.
That means local police are not there to take care of actual crime, which, in turn, will cause an increase in crime. Along with that, the spikes in unemployment and poverty will also cause an increase in crime.
But there won't be any police to stop it.
So, honestly, if you're worried about crime, inflation, and the economy, voting for Trump is the worst thing you can do.
On the other hand, I discussed Biden's vastly underrated impact on the economy in the first link below.
When he discussed the car industry, he mentioned imposing a 100% tariff on cars from China built in Mexico if he were elected.
Then he said if he doesn't get elected, it will be a bloodbath for the country.
That statement makes no sense in the context he was talking about. He's not even saying it will be even worse for the Chinese car industry because he said "for the country," not "for the auto industry."
And again, he wasn't talking about the "auto industry." He was talking about Chinese cars built in Mexico.
And it's not like Trump has never strayed off-topic.
So stop trying to justify what he said.
I looked it up. China is currently selling an electric car in Mexico called "BYD." They are looking to open a plant there to sell cars in Mexico.
I don't see anything indicating that they want to start selling them in the US.
The whole thing makes me wonder about his recent meeting with Elon, though. Suddenly he's about protecting the US electric car industry?
Here's the thing about Britt's misleading story. It actually makes the opposite point.
Her story was about a woman who was forced, as a young girl, into human trafficking by the cartels.
This means we should be making it easier for these children and young women to get asylum, not harder.
Also worth noting: Republicans have somehow made it out that they are the party that wants to prosecute child sex trafficking (as though Democrats must be against it since they are for it).
The reality is that convictions went up under Obama and down under Trump.
So I went through and read Hur's report, and the way the media at large has been presenting things is borderline malpractice.
Please take the two minutes it requires to read this tweet because it really does matter.
Let me lay it out for you. Hur is alleging there are two counts of Biden willfully retaining classified documents: The Afghanistan docs that were found in his Delaware home and his own personal notebooks.
During an interview with a ghostwriter, he made reference to classified documents that were "downstairs" in his rented Virginia home.
The supposition is that these are the Afghanistan documents that were later moved to his Delaware home in 2019 and then found by the FBI.
Hur indicates that in order to convict Biden of willfully retaining classified documents, the prosecution would have to prove that 1. These are the same documents and 2. That Biden remembers that single sentence from 2017.
It's against this backdrop Hur says:
When Mr. Biden told his ghostwriter about finding ''all the classified stuff downstairs," his tone was matter-of-fact. For a person who had viewed classified documents nearly every day for eight years as vice president, including regularly in his home, finding classified documents at home less than a month after leaving office could have been an unremarkable and forgettable event.
Notably, the classified Afghanistan documents did not come up again in Mr. Biden's dozens of hours of recorded conversations with the ghostwriter, or in his book. And the place where the Afghanistan documents were eventually found in Mr. Biden's Delaware garage-in a badly damaged box surrounded by household detritus-suggests the documents might have been forgotten.
In addition. Mr. Biden's memory was significantly limited, both during his recorded interviews with the ghostwriter in 2017, and in his interview with our office in 2023. And his cooperation with our investigation, including by reporting to the government that the Afghanistan documents were in his Delaware garage, will likely convince some jurors that he made an innocent mistake, rather than acting willfully-that is, with intent to break the law-as the statute requires.
Another viable defense is that Mr. Biden might not have retained the classified Afghanistan documents in his Virginia home at all. They could have been stored, by mistake and without his knowledge, at his Delaware home since the time he was vice president, as were other classified documents recovered during our investigation. This would rebut charges that he willfully retained the documents in Virginia.
Given Mr. Biden's limited precision and recall during his interviews with his ghostwriter and with our office, jurors may hesitate to place too much evidentiary weight on a single eight-word utterance to his ghostwriter about finding classified 5 documents in Virginia, in the absence of other, more direct evidence. We searched for such additional evidence and found it wanting. In particular, no witness, photo, email, text message, or any other evidence conclusively places the Afghanistan documents at the Virginia home in 2017.
In other words, the totality of the case on the Afghanistan documents would come down to whether he remembered a single un-noteworthy sentence he spoke seven years ago that may or may not have referred to the Afghanistan documents.
The Hur says:
We have also considered that, at trial, Mr. Biden would likely present himself to a jury, as he did during our interview of him, as a sympathetic, well-meaning, elderly man with a poor memory. Based on our direct interactions with and observations of him, he is someone for whom many jurors will want to identify reasonable doubt. It would be difficult to convince a jury that they should convict him-by then a former president well into his eighties-of a serious felony that requires a mental state of willfulness.
That's the entire context. Do you remember every sentence you spoke in 2017? I sure as hell don't.
Oh, and regarding the notebooks. There is no controversy over whether Biden knew he had those. He had handwritten notes with classified information on them.
However, Biden claims that they are personal and points to Reagan (who did the same thing) as a historic precedent.
Note it was Biden who made this argument, not his lawyers. (In fact, he made this argument to his lawyers.) Hur declined to prosecute this on the grounds that Biden is probably right.
Not bad for a dude with dementia.
Jan 11 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
I was in the Air Force from 1986-1990. There was a small group of gays and lesbians at the Air Station I was assigned to. Most of them were friends of mine.
The AFOSI (Air Force Office of Special Investigations) ran a sting operation to bust the gays. One of them was undercover, pretending to be gay.
One night, he told me he was "gay" and asked me if I was interested in a relationship. I told him I wasn't, but I could introduce him to some gay friends of mine.
The next day, I was called into the OSI and asked to write a sworn testimony against my friends. I refused to do it.
Prior to that point, I was an orderly room clerk (a status position for my AFSC), I sat on the board for Airman of the Quarter boards, etc. I was about to be fast-tracked to get my star (the promotion from Senior Airman to Buck Sergeant).
Then all hell happened. I started getting written up for typos. I failed a room inspection for having dust on my service cap. Any little mistake was a write-up.
In the Air Force, the lowest punishment is a letter of counseling. Three LOCs and you can get a Letter of Reprimand. Three Letters of Reprimand, you can get an Article 15, and kicked out.
Within 2 months, I was getting an Article 15 and kicked out. I lost my GI Bill, which would have paid for my college.
All because I wouldn't testify against people for being gay. And I wouldn't do that because it would have been far worse for them. They literally could have gone to Leavenworth.
When people say that we haven't made progress in the last few decades, that's because they don't know how much things were different then.
I am only posting this now because this is the kind of thing that the GOP would like to return us to.
Joe Biden might not be perfect. And I have problems with Gaza too. But there is more than one thing in the world.
Dec 8, 2023 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
Taylor Swift gave bonuses totalling over $55 million to every person working on the massive Eras Tour.
And she gave donations to food bank communities at every stop. In at least one case, she funded enough to feed 500,000 people for a full year in the Bay Area.
She has also given millions to cancer patients and research.
What's more, she doesn't publicize it. It's only through the recipients that we hear things.
I don't listen to the radio. I don't know most contemporary music. But I know a good person. I don't care who she is dating or why.
I do care that some people choose to share their wealth.
You don't have to be a fan of Taylor Swift's music to be a fan of Taylor Swift.
Mar 27, 2023 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
Here are my ideas on how to reduce gun violence.
1. Make every person register every gun they own and have a federal registry.
2. If your gun is stolen, and you don't report it, you are criminally and civilly liable for what happens with it.
3. If you sell your gun to someone who wouldn't clear a back check, you are criminally and civilly liable for what happens with it.
4. Require a "gun license" which requires you feel a background check that you must show to buy a second-hand gun.
Mar 26, 2023 • 29 tweets • 5 min read
🧵Please bear with me for what might end up being a lengthy, yet (hopefully) thought-provoking thread on racism.
I'm going to say something that seems ridiculous, but hear me out: We need to take the stigma out of racism if we want to do something about racism.
First off, racism is so ubiquitous in this country that it's just impossible to not be affected by it.
Whatever is that PERVASIVE is going to be INVASIVE. Subtle aspects and stereotypes are going to imbed into you, just by existing in our society.
Mar 15, 2023 • 23 tweets • 4 min read
🧵Elon Musk is the biggest threat to his stated philosophy of free speech, and here is why.
Before diving in, though, let's establish a couple of things.
1. There is absolutely not 1st Amendment right to "tweet". 2. Elon's version of the "new town square" calls to mind an old town square that never existed, so it's kind of bullshit. But let's ignore that.
Aug 19, 2022 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
If you think 87,000 IRS agents are coming to your house with AR-15s, you might be a low-info voter.
First, it's not 87,000 new agents. It's not even 87,000 agents. That's a lie. It's replacing 50,000 retiring agents. Shoring up the 13,000 agents they're behind, and includes hiring people for tech support etc.
Aug 17, 2022 • 6 tweets • 1 min read
Can we stop and have a little perspective on Joe Biden's first 2 years a President for a moment? Sincerely?
When he took office, the former POTUS had just attempted a coup, 10 million people were unemployed, 4,000 people a day were dying of Covid, and the vaccines were behind.
On top of all that, he had the thinnest possible margin in the Senate, and barely had the majority in the House.
And it was without a doubt the most divided the nation has been since the Civil War.
Aug 16, 2022 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
To put classified intelligence into perspective. When I was in the Air Force, I spent 2 years at San Vito Air Station (now closed) in Italy. The mission there was to collect intelligence from Russia and the middle east.
In fact, ahead of Gulf War 1, it was the primary source of electronic intelligence gathering.
I didn't work in the intelligence part. Everyone that worked there had to go through a highly detailed background check and in fact, everyone on the base had to have a clearance.
Jul 13, 2022 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
Today, I bought an $900 generator and hired an electrician for $2,000 to install it so I can have AC and not die of heat stroke if Gregg Abbott's power grid fails.
Pretty sure that's more than what you spent on a tank of gas.
To those saying solar would have been better: Yes, I'm aware. But I don't have 30,000 for solar panels and another $10,000 for a battery.
Apr 3, 2022 • 21 tweets • 4 min read
So let me explain something. It's a bit of a long story, and very personal, but I think it's quite revealing, so bear with me.
From 1999-2010 I was a campus minister. I had a chronic health condition that prevented me from being able to get around.
So I felt I had to quit.
I had been blogging as a hobby, and it's right about then that Bleacher Report offered me a job. It wasn't a lot of money, just $600 a mos, but it was something.
Between that and my mother's inheritance, I was able to survive, but I was living in the parsonage..
Jan 15, 2022 • 13 tweets • 2 min read
I have a story to tell. The names of the companies are withheld to protect the guilty.
One of the dirty little secrets across the tech industry is that use vendors instead of employees for as much or more than half their work force.
The vendors are second-tier citizens in the Tech industry. So they can say things like "No one in our company makes less than $25 an hour" when they are actually paying half that to some people because they're paying a vendor.
Oct 29, 2021 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Let's enumerate the fallacies in this absolutely irresponsible effort at "reporting."
1. Using "current" case rate is entirely pointless. It's like if a football team gets blown out and then they put together a drive in garbage time and you talk about the "current numbers."
2. Florida lags in their reporting, for whatever reason. I believe this is deliberate. But many of the cases and deaths are reported 2-3 weeks after they occur. So "this week's" numbers are sandbagged, primarily so nitwits can right irresponsible trash like this.
Oct 24, 2021 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
Regarding "puppygate," I would like to point out that Dr. Fauci has absolutely no role in deciding how NIH grants are distributed. He's not even the head of the NIH.
Also, there is an allegation that a lab in Tunisia which has some funding also does research on dogs. There is no evidence America is funding that research or even knows of it, if it in fact exists.
Oct 2, 2021 • 12 tweets • 2 min read
People are always asking me why it matters to me if people aren't vaccinated if I'm vaccinated. The suggestion being that "if the vaccines work, what difference does it make to me if they're not."
There are a lot of very good reasons for that. A thread to explain why.
1. As a human being, I still care what happens to my fellow humans. If I see a child about to touch a hot stove, I'm not going to think, "I'm not going to get burned." I'm going to think "I need to stop it so the kid doesn't get hurt."
Sep 10, 2021 • 6 tweets • 1 min read
Allow me, if you will, to explain the legal reasoning behind vax mandates etc.
The most relevant precedent is Jacobson v. Massachusetts. Jacobson was suing Mass. over a vaccination mandate and he lost.
The court said, "The real liberty for all could not exist under the operation of a principle which recognizes the right of each individual person to use his own [liberty], whether in respect of his person or his property, regardless of the injury that may be done to others."
Sep 4, 2021 • 12 tweets • 2 min read
I keep thinking of what a contrast Beto is to Abbott—and I don't just mean the differences in policy. I mean it in the essence of who they are as men.
Beto is a man who was born into privilege. He went to the right schools because his dad had the money. He could have gotten into serious legal trouble when he was younger, but his dad's position helped him out of it.
Sep 1, 2021 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
So in case you've been wondering about this whole "Bill Gates said the vaccines are to reduce the population" thing that the anti-vaxers like to repeat.
Give me a moment to explain.
There is a quote from 2010 where Gates did say something about how vaccines can help reduce the population, but it has nothing to do with the Covid vaccines.
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