What Trump unveiled Wednesday is stupid, wrong, arrogantly extreme, ignorant trade-wise and addressing a non-problem with misguided tools. Yet, as near as I can tell it will fade and fail and the fear is bigger than the problem, which from here is bullish. I was not much vocal on Biden’s errors or Trump’s in first term & don’t usually go there with any POTUS but on tariffs Trump is beyond the pale by a long shot.

Not quite but almost back to normal and improving relatively steadily. Another subcomponent expression of the supply chain improvement via transportation and warehousing.

Recent Fed comments have investors worried about recession. But underappreciated positives abound globally. For example, pretty much everywhere you look the yield curve is positive sloping. Most importantly, the US 3-month-10 year spread. (1/4) Historically, recessions are rare when long-term rates exceed short-term and banks have profit motive to lend. Loan growth among most developed markets remains healthy. (2/4)

These visuals show that being down 4% per month off the top this far in time is very unusual if it’s a bear market, and where that rarely has happened, like 2007-09 or 1990, there was a lot better time to get out much later on. This is a great time for calm clarity. Generally bears mostly move to 2% per month over their duration, 4% per month is mostly too much, too fast, too long before long. I still think this is an elongated correction, like 2011, not a bear market. But I could be wrong, of course.

It is either correction or bear market. If bear, which I disbelieve, there is still likely a better time ahead to get out of those things that have lagged on the downside. Bear market rallies favor the previously punished. Patience is a virtue, almost always. It is a weaker effect by sector but still there.

1st of four: Fed up with, “Don’t fight the FED”????? Visuals like this one bred the concept but it’s false. Look closer at 2, 3, and 4 to see it’s a long way to the top if you want to rock a bull with rate hikes. 2nd of 4 showing stats that should seriously dissuade the masses now believing 2022 rate hikes should kill stocks. Ridiculous notion. Stocks may or may not thrive, but it won’t be from rate hikes. I remain bullish seeing double digits by yearend.

For weeks media has said Sweden & it’s no lockdown & almost 100% voluntary actions would backfire. It hasn’t. It’s curve flattened. Yet few study them for even partial clues for success. If herd immunity can be built, they must be far faster than elsewhere. Sweden’s deaths/day peaked 10 days ago & have fallen almost to the floor, which seems one definition of success. Hard to see why more western nations aren’t emulating, experimenting with or studying that. Instead they negatively compare to Finland, Denmark & Norway. Why?

Entering the Holidays in a grim period, more on my grandpa following my tweets of the 7th. His Medal of Honor was from the French Government where he served with the American Expeditionary Forces. Name in lower left, twice. He was early into France. My grandpa's identity card showing rank etc. and where he served. The group he went with were exceptional. Born in 1875 he was over 40, didn't have to do this. These people were brave.