How to get URL link on X (Twitter) App
https://twitter.com/al_in_sweden/status/1432230677886427140(2/n) Ultra simple trial. Coin with unknown p=Prob(heads).
https://twitter.com/lakens/status/1429313825413779456(2/n) I’m just going to focus on the “how do you value an experiment prior to conducting it”. This is a practical problem for a funding agency evaluating grants, or for a regulatory agency deciding in advance if a study is likely to generate sufficient information for approval.
https://twitter.com/WesPegden/status/1424930180196356099(2/10) For safety events, required sample sizes are driven by the baseline rate of the event and the magnitude of change you are trying to detect. Smaller baseline rates require bigger sample sizes, as do smaller effects.
https://twitter.com/DrWoodcockFDA/status/1394306898753638402(2/n) First and foremost…FDA is wonderfully encouraging of these designs! Lots of comments on accelerating drug development. Also notes the extra complexity and startup time. Emphasis on “early and often” discussion with FDA.
https://twitter.com/ADAlthousePhD/status/1317087321112576003(2/n) Bias feels backward to a Bayesian confronted with data. Bias is phrased as “suppose we knew the true rate was X, would would our average data look like”. We are in the reverse situation. We know the exact data, we want to know the true rate.
https://twitter.com/DrewQJoseph/status/1247245804861116416(2/20) I don’t have the details of the interims. If someone has them, I’ll followup with this specific trial. Without them, I’m going to discuss the general principles. The principles are easier to see in a single arm trial. They generalize completely to two arms.