Share this page!

Enter URL or ID to Unroll

You can paste full URL like: https://x.com/threadreaderapp/status/1644127596119195649
or just the ID like: 1644127596119195649

How to get URL link on X (Twitter) App

  1. On the Twitter thread, click on or icon on the bottom
  2. Click again on or Share Via icon
  3. Click on Copy Link to Tweet
  4. Paste it above and click "Unroll Thread"!
  5. More info at Twitter Help
ARBE Profile picture
ARBE
@KiteX3
Mathematician. Confessional Lutheran. Free speech absolutist. Linux geek. Math over at @KiteX3math.
rmack2x Profile picture 1 subscribed
Apr 10, 2020 • 13 tweets • 6 min read
I did some mathematical analysis of the IMHE model. EVEN IF we assume deaths are normally distributed, this model has some serious numerical stability problems.
#Mathematics #COVIDー19 With a (relatively low) 500 points generated N(0,10), the best-fit sigmoid for the data we do have varies wildly during the early phase of an epidemic. No wonder the estimate is jumping so much day-by-day!
#mathematics