The most complicated federal election in this country's history.

And why traditional national polls can not be the only diagnostic tool.

Types of contests

Labor v Coalition
Labor v Coalition v Greens
Labor v Greens
Independents v Coalition
Independents v Labor

1/ Labor v Coalition

Aston (VIC)
Bennelong (NSW)
Blair (QLD)
Bruce (VIC)
Bullwinkel (WA)
Casey (VIC)
Chisholm (VIC)
Corangamite (VIC)
Dobell (NSW)
Dunkley (NSW)
Gilmore (NSW)
Greenway (NSW)
Hawke (VIC)
Holt (VIC)
Hunter (NSW)
Lingiari (NT)
Lyons (TAS)
McEwen (VIC)
Macarthur (NSW)
Macquarie (NSW)
Parramatta (NSW)
Patterson (NSW)
Reid (NSW)
Robertson (NSW)
Shortland (NSW)
Sturt (SA)
Werriwa (NSW)

*too close to call, within the margin of error, seats to watch

Mundine has been talking about his pitch to migrant groups for months. Clearly that pitch is not working.

Follow this thread for the data which we have in part shared before. Vic based poll. 2. First up. We wanted to see what frames work best for the Yes campaign. As you can see. Recognition and empathy are really good frames.

1. After 3 election loses, the Victorian Liberal Party recorded its lowest ever primary vote since 1952 when the conservative party was still reforming into the Liberal Party. Back then they were still the Liberal and Country Party.

Today? They are mostly a country party 2. The last time the Liberal Party won in Victoria (2010)

Millennials were under 15% of the voters’ roll. Baby boomers & older were closer to 60%. Last year Millennials and Gen Z made up 36% of the voters roll. Baby boomers and older dropped to 38%, lower in Melbourne.

1. It’s clear that parts of the Liberal Party are convinced that mirroring the hard Right conservative approach of the U.S Republicans is the solution to their problems.

They have their supporters of course. Sky after dark.

In Aus, it’s political suicide.

Here is why 2. The hard Right doctrine has some electoral viability in the U.S because enough of their states are dominated by older, whiter, rural communities, where most of the electoral opportunity can be sourced in small town America.

That’s not Australia.

1. In much of Australia, there is a housing attainment crisis. Not just an affordability crisis. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne.

It’s largely hitting Millennials and Gen Z. The property boom will go down in Aus history as the worse policy failure

Here is why - 2. To enter the housing market, most Australians had to access historic levels of personal debt. Up to 15 X their annual salary.

Hence, the interest rate hikes will now trigger depression like stress across millions of homes. It already is happening.

Then there are renters..

1. The Aus housing market. How it helps Labor in Melbourne and hinders Labor in Sydney. (PS. I still think Labor may win).

Unlike Melbourne, a significant number of Sydney’s diverse communities live in electorates that contain a very high number of rental dwellings. 2. Urban sprawl has indeed occurred but the types of people buying the 900k 3 bedroom homes in Camden (NSW) are not the same you find buying 600k homes in Craigieburn (VIC).

Median household incomes in Camden are about $2300 a week. Craigieburn? Under $1700.

1. Why are Millennials not following in the footsteps of older generations and becoming more conservative as they age?

Here are some underlying drivers to consider.

Among all living generations, they take the top spot for the following; 2.

% who grew up with divorced parents
% who grew up with both parents working
% who grew up in single parent households
% who rent
% with a BA or higher qualification - 49% in Melbourne and Sydney alone

They are the most diverse generation, especially in NSW and Vic

1. What if I told you that the result for the LNP in Victoria is actually worse than it appears?

Over 750,000 Victorians did not cast a formal vote last November, via a combination of not turning up or voting informally.

Firstly, over 565,000 of them did not turn up. 2. Turn out at this election was the lowest since 1943, at around 87% of all enrolled Victorians. In 1943 there was a global event that kind of made it difficult for some to vote.

Over 210,000 of all enrolled Victorians voted informally. The second highest in Victorian history.

1. Why are Millennials and Gen Z to older generations? Why are they remaining progressive longer?

Asset wealth.
Education.

Two big ones.

Under 40 year olds with BA and above higher ed

Sydney – 49%
Melbourne – 49%
Brisbane – 38%
Adelaide – 40%
Perth – 38%
Hobart – 45% 2. Why do we focus on the capital cities of each state? They matter.

75% of Victoria’s population is in Melbourne. Versus 48% of QLD population who live in Brisbane.

Larger urbanised numbers matter. Coupled with education levels and rental status.

Vic election. It’s not a 2 horse race

Labor v LNP
Labor v Greens
Labor v Western Melb Indis
Lib v Teal
Lib v Country Indi
Country Indi v Nats

All are serious contests

It is a 2 horse race for who gets to govern. LNP need a uniform 10% swing. Plus not to lose any seats

1 Seats they claim they can win, they have never held. Labor worries about Cranbourne, but it has held it since its creation in 2002. The same applies to Narre North and many other seats that they need to win to get to 18.

They also need to hold back teals and country indis.

2

Political ads. When done well

Here are some examples.

An ad that reinforced progress.

An ad that offered hope - (factor in the time it was done).

Our Herald Sun commissioned poll. Conducted during the 1st week of the campaign. Note, it's a window into what the electorate looked like back then. Numbers will/may change.

What do they mean?

🧵plus methodology

1/

heraldsun.com.au/news/victoria/… Firstly. Short methodology on what has been published. We are proud members of the Australian Polling Council. More will follow as the client reports the findings.

2/

redbridgegroup.com.au/herald-sun-sur…

Enjoyed the interview this morning.

Key question that gets asked. Is there an anti Dan sentiment out there.

The answer is complex.

Firstly, the majority of the anti Dan currently sits in the Coalition column. However, a smaller but still critical group sit elsewhere…

1/ This group is in fact two. Firstly the portion of the Labor vote, around a few %. It’s here where Labor’s greatest vulnerability sits. It’s also this group the Coalition is focusing on with their advertising campaign. They want this campaign to be a referendum of Dan Andrews.

2/

Resolve Poll - looks about right

The devil is in the detail. Thread

Firstly, the 31% LNP. The last time they won in Vic, it was over 44%. The Liberal primary alone was 38%. Close to 60% of voters were boomers or older

In this sample, the Liberal primary will be about 27%.

1/ One reason (amongst many) it’s 27% is because today, boomers+ voters now make up only 38% of the voters roll. You can see the impact of this dynamic in Resolve’s age break downs.

2/

Interesting feedback. People have highlighted dozens of issues.

Most upgrades in preparing these areas for growth were done before 2010. Bracks/Brumby.

It has been a relative drought ever since. Even though these growth corridors doubled in size in just 10 years.

1/

https://twitter.com/KosSamaras/status/1582299994610024448

The problem we have is a systemic one. Those who control the purse strings, from both sides of politics, make calls on funding - on roads, they never plan to rely on, estates they don't live in and only confront when forced to drive through.

Perspective is an issue too

2/

4 of Melbourne’s fastest growing growth corridors. 20 years apart. You will see a pattern across every single one of them.

Postcode 3064 Melton

ABS facts on COVID deaths. It's 20 X deadlier than the flu. 2017 was a horrific flu season but on ave, around 500 a year. Most COVID deaths have been this year

Over-represented in the deaths - lowest quintile, esp those born in the Middle East, SE Europe, Oceana and Africa.

1/ Most deaths are over 80. Amongst the mentioned ethnicities, it's lower. For Middle Eastern and Oceana, it's cutting their lives short

Chronic cardiac conditions were the most common pre-existing condition for those who had COVID-19 certified as the underlying cause of death

2/

State electorates have demographic faces. Politicians spend a lot of time and sadly a ton of money trying to convince themselves that they can alter the look of a seat. Delusional.

Follow me here.

Here is what inner city seats look like. Note the young renter class.

1/ What does a Liberal seat look like? Well not like Hawthorn, Richmond or Brunswick.

More like this. Note the much older population and huge home owner cohort.

2/

I have posted this before. Median mortality rates by LGA.

See that white spot in the west? They live a little longer than people in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

So when you watch all these new hospital announcements, note, they are all in the healthy populated areas The poor areas. The working class areas, they can’t even access a GP right now. All the COVID dying has also been mainly in the west and north. Before and after vaccines. They have the highest rates of diabetes, cardio disease etc

The injustice. The brutality of the injustice 2/

Thread. Some nuance. These areas have the greatest number of occupants who own their homes outright. We do know that asset wealth, does skew people towards voting Liberal. This may occur as they get older or the time it takes to pay off the home.

So what’s going here? 1/ Take a look at the inner west. 15 years ago, it experienced a large influx of Gen X and young boomers, taking out mortgages. This part of Melbourne, during that time, recorded a marked increase of outright ownership, decline in mortgages.

What else happened?

2/

Why does Melbourne attract Alt Right rallies?

Because Melbourne is hostile territory for the conspiratorial Right. Follow me here.

Melbourne is most defined by its progressive & prevailing culture. Our institutions, government to footy, have come to be defined by this culture It is this culture in which the Right feels most isolated, and threatened. Outcasts with little opportunity to engage with the broader community. Hence they retreat to online communities. When able, they try to express, connect with their in group - normally via online.