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Kyle đźš„ Profile picture
Kyle đźš„
@KyleTrainEmoji
The ONLY official @KyleTrainEmoji account. Articles in @monthly_review and @TheIntlMagz. Subscribe to substack for free at https://t.co/LBLlcxW36h. Book in bio!
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Sep 10 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
The biggest story about Haiti is that the U.S. has invaded, occupied, and overthrown Haiti’s government multiple times, and in 2009, on behalf of U.S. corporations that super-exploit Haitian labor, the U.S. embassy and USAID prevented Haiti from raising its minimum wage to $5/day “WikiLeaks Haiti: Let Them Live on $3 a Day The US Embassy aided Levi's, Hanes contractors in their fight against an increase in Haiti's minimum wage.” Before that, after Haiti finally won independence from a century of the most brutal slave system in the Western hemisphere, it was forced to pay a $20 billion indemnity to France for their “lost property”
Aug 14 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
Often one of the most interesting things about a theorist is their errors.

In 1991, Wang Huning thought the U.S./Japan imperial alliance would fracture, and Japan would be a main rival.

Today, that alliance is more solid than ever.

China has surely learned from this mistake 🧵

“The power of the solar empire has grown like nuclear fusion: in 1985, one dollar was worth 240 yen, today it is worth 130 yen. Susan Chira, writing in the New York Times (1988. 11.28), said. Japanese companies can easily outperform their competitors and purchase American property or companies. Japanese investors have lent huge amounts of money to the United States, mostly buying Treasury securities, and they can shake up the market. Japan became the ruler of the local economy and the currencies of other countries and regions did not appreciate as fast as the yen. Japan has significant inve...
“The question is why did it end up this way? In addition to various reasons such as the management system, the difference between the two cultures is an important reason. A certain system is bound to have an effect that does not depend on human will, but a certain culture will have an effect that does not depend on human will. The end of the economic competition between the United States and Japan is the product of the different genes of the two cultures. To a large extent, this is more of a cultural constraint rather than an institutional constraint. Some people say that the United States ... The Soviet Union also made a similar error, and in their case it was fatal.

It’s somewhat understandable, since exploiting the contradictions within the imperialist world was key to the Soviet victory in the Second World War.

Stalin, in 1951:
marxists.org/reference/arch…
“Consequently, the struggle of the capitalist countries for markets and their desire to crush their competitors proved in practice to be stronger than the contradictions between the capitalist camp and the socialist camp. What guarantee is there, then, that Germany and Japan will not rise to their feet again, will not attempt to break out of American bondage and live their own independent lives? I think there is no such guarantee. But it follows from this that the inevitability of wars between capitalist countries remains in force.”
Jul 15 • 17 tweets • 7 min read
What’s happening to China’s banks?

According to Western newspapers, nothing good! Due to bad loans to developers and local governments, many are now “vanishing”, which will surely be bad for The Economy.

But actually, I think it’s quite good news… 🧵
economist.com/finance-and-ec… To get an idea of how the West would prefer China and other countries to manage their banking systems, look no further than the International Monetary Fund (which is a predatory, imperialist institution controlled by the United States government—see below).
Jul 5 • 31 tweets • 9 min read
There’s been some discourse lately on homelessness, or the lack thereof, in Beijing.

Since there’s very little data on it, I attempted to find some evidence myself, in the most systematic way I could as an individual. 🧵

Image
Image
Image As a mega-city of >20 million, Beijing should be ground zero for the neoliberal hell of rough sleeping, if China’s system is really similar to the United States’. You’d expect the problem to be FAR worse there than in a much smaller city, like, say, Portland, Oregon (<1 million)
Jul 1 • 44 tweets • 12 min read
There have been some posts arguing about alleged Chinese “colonization” of Tibet lately.

Though this thread will show that Tibet is not actually a colony, I don’t find the “Mao already freed Tibet” line to be the most convincing, and prefer an alternate approach. 🧵 For one thing, it was not the immediate goal of the PRC to “free” Tibet in 1951, no matter how awful conditions of feudalism were for the serfs. In fact, Mao was initially prepared to allow Tibet to remain feudal for a century if necessary, as Politburo records have shown. “According to the Chairman [Mao] no reforms in the twentieth century.... No reforms for several decades or for fifty to one hundred years ... This is based on [the model of] the Far East Republic... Even if the 1.2 million serfs remain [in Tibet], this will not affect our socialist construction [in the rest of China]. Leave the Tibetan currency and the Tibetan army alone. We should make an agreement with them —we give them some money and let them do the work. Even if they embezzle all the money, leave them alone.... In Tibet, it [reforms] will take decades.”
Jun 29 • 14 tweets • 5 min read
The U.S. Supreme Court overturning the Chevron precedent may end up deregulating corporations more than any policy in a generation.

But in the People’s Republic of China, regulations on business are increasing, not declining. Here’s a thread of a few recent ones 🧵 (All these new regulations were created within the past five years, and are from 2021 in particular unless otherwise noted.

Again, a more complete and detailed list is available in my book, WHY THE WORLD NEEDS CHINA, now available where books are sold: )ischinagood.org
Jun 28 • 18 tweets • 7 min read
The destruction of the Soviet Union had a profoundly negative effect upon not just its former republics, but the entire world.

This thread will list quantitative changes to Western imperialism following the fall of the USSR 🧵
Image
Image I’ve described the disastrous effects upon Eastern Europe itself previously, and you can read them in the quoted thread here.

The rest of the world, however, also suffered as imperialism became more overt.
Jun 26 • 18 tweets • 6 min read
When was the last time the People’s Republic of China had an economic recession?

Let’s find out together. In this thread I will take you on a journey back through time 🧵 A recession in the U.S. was (until 2022, for some reason) traditionally defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth.

In 2020, when the U.S. (and most of the world) fell into recession due to the pandemic, China had only one negative quarter, so no recession. Image
Jun 19 • 19 tweets • 5 min read
What happens when a ruling Communist Party is subverted or overthrown, as some claim China’s has been?

There are several very clear examples of this happening in the early 1990s. A comparison between those countries’ experiences and China’s Reform period may be enlightening. 🧵 (Before I continue, please note that you can find a much longer and more detailed version of this thread in my book WHY THE WORLD NEEDS CHINA, available now from Clarity Press)
ischinagood.org
Jun 19 • 14 tweets • 4 min read
From 2021 to 2024, the total wealth controlled by billionaires in China’s mainland declined by 47%, from $2.5 trillion to $1.3 trillion.

This thread (🧵) will present a selected list of Chinese billionaires who have been ordered arrested or sentenced over the last decade. (A longer list and more detailed analysis can be found in my book, WHY THE WORLD NEEDS CHINA, which is now available from Clarity Press at the link below, and also in many other places books are sold.)
ischinagood.org
Jun 15 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
The rumors are true—I wrote a book!

WHY THE WORLD NEEDS CHINA is an analysis of modern imperialism, how the People’s Republic of China is undermining it, and a close look at Chinese domestic policy. It’s available from Clarity Press and in stores now 🧵
ischinagood.org If you consider yourself left-wing but are uncertain what to think of the PRC or don’t know where to find independent analysis, this book is for you. Rather than anecdotes or dogma, it relies mainly on studies, data, and comparative analysis to understand China’s transformation.
Jun 14 • 22 tweets • 11 min read
2023 was almost certainly China's fossil fuel peak.

According to UK news org Carbon Brief, a permanent drop in emissions in 2024 is "essentially locked in."

The original plan was to peak by 2030; this is 7 years ahead of schedule.

Thread 🧵

carbonbrief.org/analysis-china…


“Carbon Brief Analysis: China’s emissions set to fall in 2024 after record growth in clean energy”
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Image Electric vehicles are now a majority of all car sales. In March, BYD predicted this would occur within 90 days. Others didn’t expect it until 2028.

Actually, it took less than three weeks after their prediction was printed.
arenaev.com/chinese_ev_car…

“BYD says plug-in electrics will exceed 50 pct of new car sales in China in next 3 months”
“Chinese EV car sales exceed 50% for the first time ever”
Dec 19, 2023 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
“Does the wealth of the Western world still come from imperialist extraction?”

In very large part, yes. IMF-classified “advanced economies” drain $10 trillion from the rest of the world each year, through unequal exchange underlying international trade.🧵
sciencedirect.com/science/articl… “Is that a lot?”

Yes. It’s over a tenth of the entire world’s GDP. And it doesn’t even include lesser mechanisms of exploitation like the payment of interest in debt, royalties for patented technology, or other forms of rent.

The actual number is likely a bit higher.
Sep 1, 2023 • 11 tweets • 4 min read
Housing prices fell dramatically in the US in 2007-2008.

Housing prices are falling dramatically in China right now.

What's the difference?

In one sentence: Chinese banks will not make people homeless.

In several sentences... 🧵 The reason why so many people lost their homes during the 2008 financial crisis has to do with adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs).

In the US, ARM-dealing was highly predatory, promising very low interest ("teaser rates") to begin with, which would then greatly increase later on. Image
Jul 22, 2023 • 21 tweets • 7 min read
Sometime in the next seven years, a human being will set foot on the Moon for the first time since 1972.

That human will probably be a Chinese taikonaut, and the outrage from the West will be like nothing we’ve seen.

A thread 🧵 on China 🇨🇳 and the New Space Race 🚀 A picture of the moon Let’s briefly review the history of the United States’ Moon policy.

JFK’s famous promise of a Moon landing by 1970 was fulfilled. But it may not surprise you to learn that Western plans since then have been…overly optimistic. A picture of an Apollo landing
Jul 15, 2023 • 43 tweets • 16 min read
The progress China has made in renewable energy just THIS YEAR makes the entire rest of the world look like it's standing still.

I wrote in December that to call China the "world leader in renewable energy" was a colossal understatement.

That’s even more true today.

Thread 🧵
Huainan floating solar farm in Anhui Province.
Huainan floating solar farm in Anhui Province. Even the Western press considers the PRC's climate target to be all-important to preventing complete global disaster. It was estimated to reduce projected temperature by 0.3 degrees Celsius, the largest *drop* ever calculated by climate models.
foreignpolicy.com/2020/09/25/xi-…
May 1, 2023 • 9 tweets • 4 min read
Sudan’s government did everything the IMF told it to. It devalued its currency by 10x, cut fuel subsidies, and normalized relations with Israel.

But instead of forgiving Sudan’s debt as promised, the Paris Club reneged. Sudan’s debt is still increasing.
https://t.co/Nn8ubmAhB2country.eiu.com/article.aspx?a…


“Recent economic reforms include the removal of fuel subsidies and a sharp exchange rate devaluation under an IMF-monitored programme required to enter HIPC. Another condition for accessing HIPC was removal from the U.S. list of state sponsors of terrorism, achieved last year after Sudan agreed to provide compensation to victims of attacks and normalize relations with Israel.”
Image
“In mid‑June the Paris Club announced the suspension of debt relief for Sudan through its Enhanced Initiative for Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) owing to the October 2021 military coup. We expect the indefinite suspension of the HIPC for Sudan to continue at least until discussions with the IMF resume after the 2023 elections; this will widen the external debt to GDP ratio over the 2022‑26 forecast period.” The power the IMF (and its puppet masters the US and Europe, which control its policy decisions) has over countries like Sudan is immense. To make a deal for debt relief, the victim country must enact “reforms” FIRST, before receiving anything.
Apr 19, 2023 • 26 tweets • 10 min read
France is the second-strongest economy in the EU, the only nuclear power, and is energy-independent. If any country can lead Europe out from under the US thumb, it’s France.

However, it can’t without undergoing some fundamental social changes.

Thread 🧵 “Europe must resist pressur...“China completes first yuan...“BEIJING, March 28 (Reuters... Everyone is saying the word “multipolarity” these days. When do we get there, exactly?

The best academic writing about it I know of is from Samir Amin. In 2006, his take was that an anti-neoliberal, anti-imperialist Europe was a key criteria for a multipolar world to exist. “Real advances towards a di...
Mar 31, 2023 • 19 tweets • 7 min read
We're often told that Belt and Road Initiative projects go unfinished, take too long, are bad for the environment, don't hire locals, displace communities, cause too much debt, &c.

But these criticisms usually rely on selectively-chosen cases, not a comprehensive analysis. 🧵 Though we're so often told that the opposite is true, a study by McKinsey of infrastructure projects across eight African countries found that Chinese enterprises “overwhelmingly employ and train local workers”.
mckinsey.com/featured-insig…
Mar 14, 2023 • 12 tweets • 3 min read
When the United States has a crisis, the government bails out the corporations

When China has a crisis, the government bails out the people

Thread 🧵 When the Evergrande Group defaulted in 2021, western media expected it to get a multi-billion-dollar bailout like the US govt gave AIG in 2008.

Evergrande’s billionaire chairman Xu Jiayin was in the Party, and the Party’s corrupt, right? So of course there’d be a bailout.

Wrong
Mar 12, 2023 • 26 tweets • 10 min read
People keep saying China is going to “collapse” at any minute.

If they give a reason, it’s almost always an aging population, and housing oversupply.

Those are surely challenges for China. But both problems are worse—much, much worse—in Japan.

Thread 🧵 Let’s compare population pyramids real quick. Yes, China’s is getting a bit top-heavy, but Japan’s is positively teetering.

The proportion of the Chinese population older than 60 is just under 20%.

In Japan, it’s already 36%.