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Hongqiao LIU Profile picture
Hongqiao LIU
@LHongqiao
Tracking #China #environment #energy #climate since 2010. 2x @TEDTalks, @risj_oxford fellow, @voxdotcom visionary change agent" ✍️ https://t.co/2iewHFrlnv 中/EN/FR
Oct 5, 2022 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
Spectacular!!

China's provincial announced wind and solar installed targets add up to *874GW* in the current five-year plan period (2021-2025), according to industrial news portal in-en.com

China has delivered 103GW in 2021 and is expected to add 150GW in 2022 The above list covers almost all mainland provincial administration's 14FYP targets for wind and solar capacity

The targets come from provincial 14FYPs on renewable energy development, which were gradually released in the past year or two

163.com/dy/article/HIT…
Sep 6, 2022 • 9 tweets • 4 min read
China Building Materials Federation, an industry association, says the building materials sector shall aim for peaking emissions "by 2025"

The cement industry, in particular, shall lead the sector-wide decarbonisation, aiming to peak "before 2023"

cenews.com.cn/news.html?aid=… Earlier, the “14FYP on raw material industry development” and the "Implementation plan to peak emissions in the industry sector" only cited the nationwide deadline, requiring the building materials sector to ensure emissions "peak before 2030"

gov.cn/zhengce/zhengc…
Sep 4, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
China's steel industry might have "hit the roof", reports Caixin

Similar to coal power, the real estate slump and general economic downturn might have accelerated the peak demand – and peak emissions – of the steel industry

weekly.caixin.com/2022-09-02/101… Image Caixin: Two leading industry associations – CISA and MMAC – are laying out a "keynote project" to strengthen China's independency in iron ore

Target: domestic ore + steel scrap + overseas equity mines = "over 60%" of ore consumption in China by 2025

Jun 16, 2022 • 11 tweets • 3 min read
Last night, I had a few intriguing conversations on China and climate @AsiaSocietyCH.

I asked a private banker whether/how the climate discussion has transformed his industry.

He told me: "I'm afraid that climate is seen as a women's issue and a next-generation issue." Like the majority of the banks out there, his doesn't have a clear fossil-free strategy, although due to the increasing physical risks caused by climate change, the bank no longer provides advice to clients on fossil assets.

"But if they are determined, we have to process."
Jun 15, 2022 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
“5月份，全社会用电量6716亿千瓦时，同比下降1.3%，日均用电量环比增长2.2%。分产业看，第一产业用电量88亿千瓦时，同比增长6.3%；第二产业用电量4754亿千瓦时，同比下降0.5%；第三产业用电量1057亿千瓦时，同比下降4.4%；城乡居民生活用电量817亿千瓦时，同比下降2.4%。” National statistics show coal power generation continues the trend of negative growth in May


Vs. FT""China ramps up coal power to boost post-lockdown growth"
ft.com/content/68bc7f…

Confusing, right?
Jun 14, 2022 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
The thread gets more attention than I expected, so I decided to add a few more thoughts here

It is essential to acknowledge that Chinese & diaspora journalists who work in a typical Western newsroom face no less, if not more challenges, in their reporting and career development One challenge is fitting into the stereotyped narratives on China while you clearly know the world has changed immensely since the Colonial Era? Cold War?

A close friend left Bloomberg after her white superior twisted her reporting with prejudgments contrary to her investigation
Jun 13, 2022 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
In a recent discussion, I shared the challenges I face as an independent journalist covering China and climate

Facing a room mixed with Chinese & "Westerners", I packed my views diplomatically

...till a diaspora speaker shouted out: "Shall we just call it what it is? Hostile." Yes, "hostile". But believe it or not, based in Europe, the hostility that I now face on a daily bases comes more from structural discrimination from the "West" rather than the deteriorating political & media environment in China (for which I left journalism in the first place).
May 25, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Li warns that China's economy is *in danger of slipping out of the reasonable range*

He adds that once slipped out of the reasonable range, it'd be very difficult to pull it back without *paying a huge price*, and it will take a longer time.

(based on unofficial meeting minute) The unofficial meeting minute is circulated on the Chinese internet, but not yet published on State Council's website.

In his speech, Li showed deep concern about the record-low GDP growth rate and record-high unemployment rate.

"We cannot accept [GDP growth] below 3%", he said
May 25, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
The sudden video conference dedicated to "establishing the fundamentals of the national economy" (稳住经济大盘) aims to mobilize the administrative bodies, not party leaders (altho often overlapped), of all levels to implement State Council's recent policies on economic recovery. In contrast to Xi's consistent address on sticking to zero-covid policy, the State Council has been heavily invested in measures that would give a boost to the economy since at least April. "People's livelihood" is repeatedly mentioned in these meetings.

Apr 1, 2022 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
Mastering the language is the first step, and it's not even the most difficult one. Yet, this fundamental skill is not even considered a must-have in many China-related affairs.

So many non-Chinese speakers are the go-to sources / experts on China affairs. Why? I was actually invited to be an independent reviewer of these applications but eventually, I was not selected -- perhaps I am too Chinese or too independent?

That aside, building independent knowledge is essential, and not just for the EU nor on politics

Mar 31, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Chinese Academy of Engineering: China could peak emissions "around 2027" at a peak value of 12.2 billion tonnes of CO2

Building on this basis, with a fundamental shift in development patterns, China could achieve carbon neutrality before 2060
china.huanqiu.com/article/47Q0fj… Despite an early peak, the peak value - 12.2 bn tCO2 - is by far the highest estimated by Chinese experts in recent years

Previous estimations mostly fall in the range of 10.5-110 bn tCO2 (see below)

Mar 23, 2022 • 11 tweets • 3 min read
🧵China just released a 15-year plan on hydrogen development

Highlights:
- mastering core technologies
- prioritising green hydrogen
- prioritising transport & industry application
- market-led commercialisation

SUBSCRIBE to Shuang Tan for more details👇
liuhongqiao.substack.com/about Targets are set for every five years:

2025: a primary hydrogen supply system fuelled by renewable energy & industry byproducts

2030: wide application of green hydrogen, supporting peak emissions

2035: improving the % in total final consumption (TFC)

ndrc.gov.cn/xxgk/jd/zctj/2…
Mar 22, 2022 • 10 tweets • 4 min read
🧵This thread contains my high-level takeaways of China's new five-year plan on energy development
ndrc.gov.cn/xxgk/zcfb/ghwb…

More detailed analysis will be followed in this week's Shuang Tan newsletter

Subscribe now to get it delivered to your mailbox
liuhongqiao.substack.com Confirmed: For the first time, Xi Jinping's announcement on overseas coal power is written in a domestic policy

"China will step up support for...green and low-carbon energy, and will not build new coal-fired power projects abroad"

My previous analysis👇
Dec 10, 2021 • 4 tweets • 3 min read
I was really surprised to read comments of Politburo "toning down" on climate. The reason given by most analysis was that "dual carbon goals" was missing in the communique
gov.cn/xinwen/2021-12…
But how about the emphasis on "new development philosophy" which covers dual-carbon? Similarly, I don't see why acknowledging the "basic national situation" of coal being the dominant energy source should be read as a "softer tone"

Every country's policy is made based on its national situation

Acknowledgement is the first step of science-based policymaking
Dec 10, 2021 • 28 tweets • 4 min read
Two top Chinese government advisors on climate and energy policy sat down with me at COP26 Glasgow for an 80min in-depth conversation

From "coal exit" to "dual carbon" goals, we walked through the "miscomprehension and misunderstanding" around China's climate policy

Read this re: China’s “new development philosophy”

“Any future strategies, as well as actions, that are not in line with such new development philosophies – even a little – will have to be passed.”
Dec 8, 2021 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Unprecedented: Shandong proposes a new "carbon reduction & substitution" scheme for new dual-high projects

Basically, new projects shall accompany a plan in which emissions is offset/substituted by equivalent avoided carbon from de-capacity, tech upgrades, fuel switching etc ImageImage A bit more background:

Dual-high = high energy consumption and high emissions

Already, new dual-high projects in most sectors must meet the requirements of capacity replacement


China is also piloting carbon emission impact assessments for such projects
Dec 8, 2021 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
The captive power plants seem to have captured more policy attention than ever as China aims to peak emissions and achieve net-zero on/ahead of time

- more stringent emissions verification & reporting

- transform for public power generation, and flexibility & system regulation Captive power plants/自备电厂 are power and/or heat generators that are owned and operated by industrial or commercial units, and they mostly exclusively serve for such sites for private uses

@GlobalEnergyMon: Captive power plants generate 13% of total coal power in China Image
Sep 27, 2021 • 4 tweets • 3 min read
CEEIT just released two other "typical cases" on irregulated dual-high projects

1. China Nonferrous Metals Group's Shenyang Mining company
mee.gov.cn/ywgz/zysthjbhd…
2. Fuyun city, Guangdong
mee.gov.cn/ywgz/zysthjbhd… CEEIT even made a graphic to illustrate how backward the energy efficiency in the Shenyang copper smeltery:

Bar = comprehensive energy consumption
(unit: kg standard coal / tonne of copper output)

Red = the company's level
Green = national standard
Blue = national average
Sep 26, 2021 • 22 tweets • 12 min read
THREAD | This round of power rationing & production curtailment has quickly spread to at least 18 provinces (various Chinese media)

They represent around two-thirds of China's CO2 emissions in 2019

China News Daily: "Dual-energy control has lost its shape (能源双控走样)" In addition to the provinces mentioned in my previous tweet, a few more joined the club: Shandong, Inner Mongolia, Liaoning, Jilin, Heilongjiang, Chongqing

Sep 24, 2021 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
China's economic planner NDRC just issued a new notice to formalise the series of crackdowns on the mining of cryptocurrencies initiated by provincial govts in June

It attributed the rectification to concerns on energy conservation, emissions reduction & high-quality development Image When the provincial governments initiated the crackdown in the summer, some argued energy consumption was just a cover for China's real motive

Yet, NDRC's entire ban is built around the "significant meaning" to ensuring peak emissions and achieving carbon neutrality "on time"
Sep 22, 2021 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
Today, China's top economic planner NDRC released a three-part interpretation of the new plan on perfecting the dual-energy control mechanism

This is very rare. Normally, such a ministry-level plan would only be accompanied with a Q&A and infographic

ndrc.gov.cn/xxgk/jd/jd/ The interpretation, penned by NDRC's Energy Research Institute, highlighted a new indicator in China's future energy & economic policy: *energy output ratio* (能源产出率)

NDRC defines it as "economic output per unit energy input" (单位能源投入的经济产出)
ndrc.gov.cn/xxgk/jd/jd/202…