Data-driven, empirical observations on #AI and autonomy, #drones, and civilian protection/#CIVCAS. Yes I love data! Opinion my own, RT endorsements.
May 2, 2024 • 14 tweets • 4 min read
Just saw this thread. As my article was fact checked by @just_security before publication, I’m just going to point out two supposed falsehoods that aren’t, and then try to reframe this debate in a constructive way. 🧵
1. On @AIRWARS data, and supposedly getting it wrong, we were in consultation with AIRWARS in the writing of the Raqqa report. I even provided a reference to the report. For those who don’t want to read it (too bad, it’s a great report), I offer a snapshot of the relevant part:
Dec 31, 2023 • 17 tweets • 3 min read
To show how the IDF are not doing everything possible to protect civilians in Gaza, we can also compare operations in Gaza to recent U.S. and coalition/multinational operations, particularly in Mosul and Raqqa. Another thread.
2. For Mosul and Raqqa, both of those operations had relatively high rates of civilian harm. So, as I compare Gaza to them, Mosul and Raqqa were not great examples of civilian protection. Instead, I’m contrasting three operations that didn't effectively mitigate civilian harm.
Dec 31, 2023 • 15 tweets • 3 min read
As the year ends and the Gaza war continues, is the IDF doing everything possible to mitigate civilian harm?
The clear answer is no. The IDF could do much more than it is now. We see this by assessing the data we have on hand and then by comparing with what has been done before.
2. Let’s first consider the data.
The IDF has not been transparent with details of civilian harm they assess that they have caused. The most information they have given is that they believe they have a 2:1 ratio of civilians to enemy combatants killed.
Sep 21, 2021 • 13 tweets • 14 min read
@Brian_Castner@marcgarlasco@JABell27 Thanks Brian. While I don’t expect the investigation to seek out subject matter experts on civilian harm—I’ve never seen it done before, sadly—since you paged me, I will mention a few things the investigation team should consider to finally learn from recurring mistakes. 🧵
@Brian_Castner@marcgarlasco@JABell27 (2) the first point is to remember that the US has committed thousands of civilian harm incidents. And they all have things in common, patterns that emerge. The best way to improve is to identify the patterns and find ways to mitigate them. See the forest for the trees.
