Part III
Where are we headed? We have a media environment where critical voices are being stifled. ICE is set to massively expand, creating a partisan paramilitary force of masked agents who have already shown a propensity to arbitrarily arrest U.S. citizens and legal residents.

https://twitter.com/LatAmerElection/status/1968811256069910706

Politicized law enforcement and regulatory agencies will pressure and threaten Democratic donors, making it harder for the opposition to raise funds. And my bet is that if Trump is still alive in 2028, he will try to run again.

Part II
Sidelining the Opp 3: Universities & Students: The administration has deported international students for their speech, w/ ICE “scour[ing] the internet for social media posts...that the administration could argue showed sympathy toward Hamas.”
nytimes.com/2025/03/12/us/… x.com/LatAmerElectio… A federal prosecutor sent a letter to Georgetown law school threatening to blacklist applicants from the school if they continue to do DEI work. apnews.com/article/trump-…

🧵I’ve been studying democratic backsliding for some years now, and I think the 🇺🇸 passed a dangerous threshold this week. I’m worried we’re quickly approaching a point of no return. Long🧵on how we got here and where we might be headed, with lots of links. I’ll use the categories from Levitsky & Ziblatt: capturing the referees, sidelining the opposition, and rewriting the rules of the game.
1: Capturing the Referees – let’s start with federal law enforcement

🇻🇪 🗳️#Venezuela's election Sunday is likely to be the country's most consequential since 1998. Maduro's regime will try everything to prevent an opposition victory. But even authoritarian elections can produce liberalizing outcomes – especially when the opposition is united.🧵 The opposition is united, organized, & energized. They're mobilizing poll watchers and get-out-the-vote activists. The primary process, and Machado's campaigning on González’s behalf, have lit a fire that Chavismo may not be able to extinguish.
apnews.com/article/venezu…

A lot of uncertainty this morning about Guatemala’s election. In this 🧵I'll share some analysis (see the end for some of the latest news links). The situation pits the law versus power. First, the law: As many have noted, prosecutors’ effort to suspend Semilla’s registration between the 1st and 2nd rounds is illegal under Guatemala’s electoral law (which has constitutional status). It's not a murky area in a law - this is clearly illegal.

For anyone preparing syllabi on Latin American politics, here is a megathread on some of the readings I am assigning this spring in my undergrad class. They are readings I have had success with in past semesters, or new things I think are going to work well for my students.
🧵 I don’t use a textbook. But if I did, I would probably choose the new text from @GerardoMunck and @anulolbapnauj. It looks like it will be new leading text in the field.
cambridge.org/us/academic/su…