LazCap Profile picture
https://t.co/c3ziSUw5K3
Apr 21, 2023 9 tweets 3 min read
1/n $RIG

Seen some confounding takes on the name lately.

Mainly revolving around
- contract book
- leverage
- implied value

Thought worth examining if some merit to those points. 2/n

Contract book

- critique: bad contracts and/or contracts rolling off
- actual: strghtfwd exercise checking out FSRs for drillers and see current/fwd dayrates and longest coverage (hint: $RIG scoring best)
- historically, $RIG signed longest contracts at highest rates

ctd.
Oct 17, 2022 12 tweets 5 min read
1/n

Pretty pumped to see two OGs of the $BTU trade joining in on $RIG

@contrarian8888
@NICKRADICAL4

I view $RIG as a repeat of the $OXY, $AR, $BTU playbook ... levered player in a sector left for dead with rapidly improving fundamentals

Below some resources on the trade👇 2/n

My original thesis on $RIG from Oct/21 - was clearly early/wrong as stock has been a laggard thus far, in spite of rising day-rates

lazcap.substack.com/p/project-pose…
Oct 15, 2022 4 tweets 2 min read
$RIG latest FSR dropped Thu night

deepwater.com/news/detail?ID…

1/n

Not a lot in there that wasn’t known previously but think clear trend in dayrates visible w decent chunk of contracts signed at ~400k+ Image 2/n

Further, there is talks of reactivating Deepwater Orion as part of latest Petrobras tender Image
Aug 3, 2022 4 tweets 1 min read
$TGA - Transglobe Energy

This might be one for the special sits/merger arb crowd.
On July 14 $TGA and $EGY - Vaalco Energy announced a deal whereby $EGY would acquire $TGA in an all stock deal, with $TGA shareholders receiving ~0.67 shares of $EGY each

trans-globe.com/news/news-deta… 2/n

Today $TGA is down ~18% on the back of no news. What happened? $EGY released an operational update, lowering midpoint production guidance by ~750bbl/d. Now $EGY is down ~17% on this update and $TGA too as a consequence.

vaalco.com/investors/news…