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LeftHandPole Profile picture
LeftHandPole
@LeftHandPole
Engineer by profession. The best advice is both free and reputable; having been underbid in both respects, I make no attempts to offer any.
Apr 4, 2020 • 13 tweets • 5 min read
1\ Monte Carlo update for 1Q2020 $TSLAQ financials.

For your enjoyment, sit down and reroute your bong tubes through a CPAP machine as I explain why this Q1 ""record"" deliveries of 88k vehicles will not translate to a profit. 2\ To be sure, Tesla is truthful when it boasts of record Q1 deliveries. But as usual Musk is careful to conceal the whole truth--namely that his operation does not scale with the efficiency required of an OEM valued at $100B.

Case in point: the Shanghai Gigafactory
Oct 5, 2019 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
1\ ONE YEAR HAS PASSED since we the unworthy beheld the IMMACULATE QUARTER & wept at its glory.
Yet promise of profits ad infinitum failed without growing the revenue line item.
He lies to his flock with lofty dreams of tomorrow, but he cannot lie in casino MONTE CARLO
$TSLAQ 2\ I am a generous analyst, a generalist, giving weight to favorable catalysts:
Appraising ASPs, Energy, & Leasing at prices that cannot be beat, with myriad credits suckled from government teat.
Jul 6, 2019 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
1\ Monte Carlo update for Tesla 2019Q2 Net Income:

Base Case: $233M Loss
Bull Case: $85M Loss
Bear Case: $381M Loss

Probability of Profit: 5.47%

However, there are some things worth noting...

$TSLA $TSLAQ 2\ I penciled in about $250M average for combined credits. Increasing this by two sigma yields $300M (they recorded $215M in Q1). This seems appropriate to account for a new record quarter and any FCA fleet-merger credit accounting. Call it management against an upside surprise.
Jan 12, 2019 • 21 tweets • 7 min read
1\ The Polite Suggestion of Supply and Demand (if it’s not too much trouble): A thread on $TSLAQ ‘s Imminent Demand Cliff

As always, this is not advice. Conclusions drawn from the data shown are merely opinion. Short via put options. 2\ If you Google “US Passenger Car Demand Curve” I doubt you’ll find the neat data you’ve seen in economics textbooks. At least I haven’t. $TSLAQ Bears have been saying for a long time that the company will struggle with demand in 2019, but it’s hard been hard to quantify.
Dec 25, 2018 • 16 tweets • 5 min read
1\ Do you feel lucky: A Monte Carlo Estimation of $TSLAQ Fourth Quarter Profits

(Inaugural Thread on this fine Christmas morning. Not investment advice; academic discussion only. Short via put options) 2\ Sometimes the burden of prescience becomes too great for our profit estimates. It is difficult and error-prone for us to speculate on so many production parameters, oftentimes under reasonable assumptions, that are thrown into disarray on Tesla’s whim.
$TSLAQ