Now: Governing w/ @HarrisCoPct2 Previously: @CGHollins, @LesleyBrionesTX, @JoeBiden, @BetoORourke, @clairecmc and @MoDemParty.
Views are my own.
Feb 23 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
1/ I'm about to ruin a lot of people's timelines.
You know that massive Democratic primary surge in Harris County everyone's losing their minds over?
I looked up whether these "new" voters actually show up in general elections.
Spoiler: 82% of them already do. 🧵👇
2/ Quick context: 48.6% of early voters have little or no Democratic primary history — 39,400 surge voters through Day 6.
A lot of people saw that and assumed these are new voters entering the electorate.
So I pulled their general election records.
Feb 22 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
1/ Yesterday I told you 43.6% of Harris County early voters had zero or minimal Democratic primary history.
Today it's 47.7%.
The surge isn't slowing down. It's accelerating. 📈🧵
2/ Day 5 data just dropped.
→ 34,227 surge voters — nearly HALF the electorate
→ 76,555 total votes — more than DOUBLE 2024 at this point
→ 15,247 voted Saturday alone — strongest Saturday in any recent Dem primary 🗳️
Feb 21 • 6 tweets • 1 min read
1/ Everyone's talking about the massive surge in early voting in Texas.
Nobody's asking the right question: who are these people? 🤔
I pulled the voter file. Here's what I found 🧵
2/ I matched every early voter in Harris County against their history in the last 3 Democratic primaries.
43.6% have ZERO or minimal primary history.
17,204 voters. Nearly half the electorate. People campaigns weren't targeting.
