Chopper of water, carrier of wood, reader of the fucking article, devourer of fools
Mar 5, 2024 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
The fact that there's little evidence to support many of the govt's interventions is the point. The govt sees its role as disrupting the rational, evidence-oriented policy process in favour of things that feel righteous, because expertise is woke. The antagonism is the purpose
Of course they'll lean on evidence where it is available and supports their existing direction, everyone does. But the direction is more important than the evidence, and the lack of evidence yields its own sort of virtue, being brave enough to break the orthodoxy of expertise
Jul 23, 2023 • 43 tweets • 9 min read
This will result in two primary shifts:
* Treating game species as a resource to be managed and monetised
* Consequently greater restriction and regulation of recreational hunting that will raise barriers to entry and reduce hunting rates, with consequently higher herd sizes
This was on the cards when the Game Animal Council was formed in 2013 as contra for Peter Dunne supporting the 2011 Nat govt so Key had arbitrage against ACT and TPM.
This was the era when the United Future umbrella included people like the Outdoors Party, now led by Sue Grey
Mar 27, 2023 • 23 tweets • 11 min read
So. I have had people grumbling that it's not fair to attribute agreement to the FSU when its job is just to go into bat for free speech.
And like so much about the FSU, that is true in principle. But also like so much about the FSU, it is bollocks when you look at the merits.
But this is a question upon which we have objective data: do the Free Speech Union leaders substantively agree with Posie Parker and her arguments about trans and queer people?
In developments that will shock nobody, as it turns out, yes they mostly do. So here's some receipts.
Feb 1, 2023 • 13 tweets • 3 min read
The arguments against continuing the fuel excise cut are broadly the same as the arguments against middle-income tax cuts: they cost a lot in foregone revenue and most of that goes to people above the middle-income line because it scales sharply with income (or fuel consumption)
As a temporary measure when it looked like petrol prices were going to hold above $3 this was defensible to some extent. The longer it persists, especially as fuel prices have fallen more or less back to normal, the stronger the argument for better use of this foregone revenue
Jan 30, 2023 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
Conventional wisdom (including mine!) was that Jacinda standing down would be bad for Labour polling. What the polling bump proves to me: the former PM, as she did in 2019 with Chch and in 2020 with the rona, understood something that hardly anyone else understood and acted on it
Now on the other side of that poll result, just as it was immediately following the events of March 2019 and March 2020, reality now begins to conform to that understanding -- which few of us had -- to the extent that it now seems obvious, like a kind of destiny.
Apr 9, 2020 • 20 tweets • 4 min read
Here is the thing about global emergency decision-making processes, which I have worked on for some years, including on this specific one: the main determinants of response are 1. information inputs 2. Ideological constraints
There are others (a lot of others including capability) but those are the main ones.
In our present situation, condition 2 (ideological constraints) has been essentially removed from the equation. Everyone credible basically agrees on the optimal course of action.
Mar 1, 2020 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
Not to go on about it but here is my analysis of what the Nats' latest idiotic boomer meme (that I shall not share and nor should you) is for:
1. Base activation/reassurance 2. Oppositional outrage production 3. Ideological polarisation by eliciting these two divergent responses
Here's how it works.
1. Base activation. "Yeah crims bad, gangs bad, bloody Cindy wants to give them a hug."
The merits here are: this is bullshit, but it helps if you set aside the actual merits. These people DGAF about the merits; it's the vibe they care about.
Jun 20, 2019 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
This gun dealer and ammo manufacturer Paul Clark is skipping straight from soap box to ammo box. The people elected at the ballot box must have something to say about that. At a minimum his contract to supply Police and NZDF with ammo must be reconsidered
Paul Clark's argument is that in a society where law-abiding citizens no longer have recourse tolegal means, they can be forced into illegal means. This is harsh, but basically accurate. HOWEVER. The buyback has provision for gun owners to appeal to court. ...
Mar 15, 2019 • 15 tweets • 4 min read
A brief explainer on the distinction between Category A & Category E firearms licenses, since this is a topic of some confusion.
"Category A" is your bog standard arms license. It permits ownership of bolt, lever and similar action rifles and shotguns, and some semi-autos. ...
"Category E" is a license endorsement over and above Cat A for "Military-Style Semi-Automatic" rifles (MSSAs). This is where it gets complicated.
What defines "Military-Syle" is not actual functionality, nor is it actual use by militaries -- it is literally a matter of style.
