Over the last 20 years, how many stocks do you think have 100x’d?

27

Some of these are still very low quality, speculative companies so I added additional filters:

10 year revenue growth > 1% per year
10 year diluted EPS growth of over 1% per year. With those very simple filters, we’re down to 12 companies that have 100x’d over the last 20 years.

Here they are.
$TPL
$NFLX
$NVDA
$WT
$MNST
$MYRG
$ISRG
$DECK
$AAPL
$WPM.TO

My 8,194 subscriber email newsletter is on pace to generate $22,320 in subscription revenue and $40,000 from consulting revenue this year.

I started it in 2019 and over 60% of my subscribers have joined this year.

I have no short cuts but this is what has worked for me. Before I get into what has worked lets cover things that don’t matter at all.

- Your newsletter name
- Your URL
- Your newsletter artwork
- The day/time you send
- Knowing your exact topic
- Perfect grammer
- Having a big following when you start

🚨Personal Update🚨

Friday was my last day @ConvertKit. Sincere thank you to @nathanbarry and the team. I truly enjoyed working together.

Today, I joined @beehiiv to help @denk_tweets build the Ad network.

I'm also moving my newsletter from @SubstackInc to beehiiv I've been thinking about switching to beehiiv for a while and I finally made the leap for these reasons.

1. I didn't like sharing 10% of my paid revenue
2. Increased monetization through the Ad network
3. Beehiiv's integrated referral program
4. Amazing customizability

Here's what $1,000 invested in the top 10 performing S&P 500 stocks since 2000 is worth today
1. $MNST $1.4M
2. $TSCO $1M
3. $ODFL $319K
4. $NVDA $190k
5. $AAPL $160k
6. $IDXX $120k
7. $ANSS $92k
8. $UNH $89k
9. $POOL $88k
10. $ORLY $76k

How can you find stocks like these early? TAKEAWAY #1

The key factor in all of these returns is earnings per share growth.

It's so easy to overcomplicate investing.

Long-term outperformance is primarily driven by a company's ability to increase earnings per share.

Redfin provides home value estimates for over 92 million homes in 43 states and the District of Columbia

They expect 2023 to be the slowest housing market year since 2011

Here's what that means for the value of your home... Slowdown coming but not 2008 style

"We expect home sales to sink to their lowest level in more than a decade as high mortgage rates keep housing costs up and prevent people from moving. High homeowner equity and a resilient job market will stave off a wave of foreclosures."

Jeff Bezos believes that stock prices are most closely correlated with cash flow. "It's such a straightforward number. Cash flow is what will drive shareholder returns"

Here are 5 market-beating companies trading at or below their historical free cash flow multiples #1 Mastercard $MA
CAGR since 2007: 25.37%
S&P 500 CAGR: 8.53%

Historical FCF Growth Rate 21.8%
Average P/FCF: 31.53

Current P/FCF 33.48
Expected FCF growth
2023: 20%
2024: 21%
2025: 15%

Blue line = historical P/FCF
Orange line = P/FCF Growth Rate of 1
Dotted lines = estimates

Snowflake CFO Mike Scarpelli recently spoke at a Barclays Global Tech conference

Here's what he had to say about the state of Snowflake's business and how the weakening economy is impacting cloud vendors

I'm a shareholder, so I've included a basic DCF analysis at the end

$SNOW Q: What do you see in terms of new customer business?

A: No change. When a customer has decided to move to the cloud they aren't making decisions for the next 3 to 6 months. They are making 10 - 15 year decisions

Our average time to close in 7 months, large customers 1-2 years

Brookfield Asset Management has $750B in assets under management & 100+ yrs experience investing in the backbone of the economy

They call this “a hinge moment in history” w/profound implications for inflation, interest rates, & investing

Their macro update & investment plan… Mark Carney, Brookfield Chair argues that inflation is not just high because of energy prices and other short-term factors. Today’s inflation is broadly based.

“Underlying inflation is very firm in most industrial economies with the exception of Japan.”

Legendary investor Howard Marks just released a new memo.

“In my 53 years in the investment world, I’ve seen economic cycles, manias and panics, bubbles and crashes, but I remember only two real sea changes.  I think we may be in the midst of a third one today.”

My Notes… The price you pay for a stock matters.

If you bought the Nifty Fifty in 1969 and held until 1974, you were sitting on losses of more than 90% . . . from owning pieces of the best companies in America.

Today is my last day as an Emerging Manager @socialcapital.

Monday is my first day at @JoinCommonstock.

Here are all the juicy details you're dying to know about my experience working for @chamath Chamath was incredibly personable, empathetic, and supportive from the initial interview through today.

I'll never forget the interview when he cared more about learning about my family (and asking about my wife and kids by name) than he did about investing.

Coinbase $COIN is down 11% after reporting Q3 Earnings

Revenue: $1.3B missed $1.57B est.
Monthly Transacting Users (MTU): 7.4M vs 7.09M est
Trading Volume $327B vs $309B est
Adjusted EBITDA $618M vs $662M

Thread on my notes from shareholder letter + call ⬇️ "We are focused on investing for long-term growth. Our business is volatile. $COIN is a long-term investment in the growth of the cryptoeconomy & our ability to serve users through our products & services. We encourage our investors to take this point of view"

1/ This type of crap is exactly what drives bubblish activity... and people to rush in and get hurt. I can almost guarantee @tyler won't be buying meaningful amounts here... but he and @michael_saylor are happy to drive the hype train higher.

https://twitter.com/tyler/status/1340694515074691077

2/ $TSLA and other real companies might put 1%... or 5% of a balance sheet in at a maximum. The key is MIGHT.

What pisses me off is that these people who are already big-time $BTC owners continue trying to drive the hype train with these absurd types of claims.

THREAD1/

January Investment Portfolio Review (as of close on 1/30)
5Y +235% // S&P500 +62%
3Y +200%
1Y +30%
YTD +29%

Largest Drawdown -39% (2019)

others who share: @ZimVC @David_Kretzmann @TMFStoffel @BrianFeroldi @FoolMCochrane @TMFInnovator @TMFSymington 2/ Top 5 holdings = 61%. This concentration can be risky, so plz don’t just follow. These 5 will drive most my portfolio performance.

Concentration is also what has provided outsized returns.

$AYX 23%
$DDOG 15%
$TTD 9%
$CRWD 9%
$ROKU 6%

1/I’m rereading 100 Baggers by @chriswmayer. Another great book is Intelligent Fanatics by @iancassel and @iddings_sean.

These two books could be the only “investing books” you need to read for life-changing investment returns for normal people who invest.

A thread 2/ the book is based on a study of stocks that returned 100 times your money (or more).

This turns $10k into $1million.

These stocks are more common than one would think.

1/ $TWLO @twilio reports today after the close.

Position size 16%
Shares 576
Avg Purch Price: $65.41

I'd like to see:
Total Rev: $302.25M
169k customers
DBNER: 137%-140%

Read my full company overview and earnings preview here: 👇

austin.substack.com/p/company-over… 2/ $TWLO @twilio Why I own?

- Huge fan of Founder and CEO @jeffiel
- Solid leadership team
- Reshaping communications: ~$1.2B+ TAM
- 86% YoY revenue growth (w/SendGrid) & 140% DBNER (~Same Store Sales)