How Belarus (and Russia) managed to make a NATO & EU country shut down its airports — for days — using balloons.

Yes, balloons. Carrying smuggled cigarettes.

Here’s the strange (and very deliberate) hybrid warfare story 🧵👇 Over the past week, Vilnius Airport in Lithuania — less than 50 km from the Belarus border — had to repeatedly disrupt air traffic.

Why?

Because unidentified balloons were flying in from Belarus.

1/ The U.S. says it wants a stronger Europe. More defense spending, fairer burden-sharing. But history tells a more complicated story. 🧵 2/ Since WWII, American presidents—from Eisenhower to Trump—have urged Europe to shoulder more of its defense burden.
“Why should we keep paying while Europe enjoys the peace?” the argument goes.
Yet not much changed. Why?

In 2013, Ukraine was neutral:

🔹 60% of Ukrainians opposed NATO membership, and NATO wasn’t interested in accepting.
🔹 82% had a positive view of Russia
🔹 Only 6,000 troops were combat-ready
🔹 Euromaidan was about the EU, not NATO - even pro-Russian Yanukovych saw Russia’s limits

No 'NATO expansion threat'. No anti-Russian sentiment. Yet in 2014, Russia invaded, annexed Crimea, and started the war in Donbas.

It was never about NATO—it was about control. data sources:

UA troop numbers:
rand.org/pubs/commentar…

1/ Surprising how little attention the facts about U.S.-EU economic and trade interdependence receive in discussions on transatlantic relations. Here are some key points everyone should know. 🧵 2/ U.S. investments in the EU are 4x higher than in the entire Asia-Pacific region.

🧵1/6 Mind the Gap: at the #MunichSecurityConference, a somber tone prevailed. Ukraine retreats from Avdiivka; European intelligence warns of Russia's threat to NATO in 2-3 years; concerns over potential US withdrawal under Trump raise anxiety. On this, we all seem to agree. 2/6 Yet, when it is time for action, the sense of urgency vanishes. Discussions revert to 'business as usual' terms: navigating complex procurement procedures, untangling bureaucratic red tape, and framing moves within peacetime debt-to-GDP goals.

Let's not kid ourselves: Europe is facing its biggest war since WWII, dismantling what's left of the old security architecture. And this is not just another "remote conflict," even though some in the West still see it that way.
🧵1/5 🧵2/5 Sociologist Stephan Grünewald once likened Germany to a "Gore-Tex Republic," alluding to warm and water-resistant winter clothing.

Amid dangerous developments, the West remained in its small bubble of comfort, believing itself immune to military threats and ignoring that history was taking a grim turn.

Lithuania has finalised building a physical barrier (mostly a 4 m tall steel fence+concertina) on the entire length of border with Belarus (except where natural barriers such as rivers occur). It covered approximately 550km and cost €152mil. The project took around a year to complete.

It aims to stop flows of illegal migration that persist to this day from the Belarusian side. For instance, 125 people were turned back on Saturday alone.

Kaliningrad. A short 🧵

The Kaliningrad issue was always a complex one. It was one of the key dilemmas discussed during trilateral talks among EU-Lithuania-Russia prior to the EU enlargement of 2004. 1/9 For instance, Russia sought a visa-free regime for people traveling between Kaliningrad and Russia's mainland. It also pushed for a military corridor to be able to move its military assets. 2/9