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Mar 5 • 13 tweets • 2 min read
The Hormuz closure is not a 6-week shock. It is an 18-month stress test for the global food system.
Most allocators are trading the obvious: oil up, defense up, gold up.
They are missing the connective tissue. 🧵
One-third of globally traded fertilizer transits Hormuz. Kpler estimates 3–3.9 million tonnes monthly.
There is no strategic reserve for nitrogen fertilizer. Oil has the SPR. Fertilizer has nothing.