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Lukasz Rachel Profile picture
Lukasz Rachel
@LukaszRachel
🇪🇺🇵🇱🇬🇧 Economist. Assistant prof / lecturer @UCL_econ. PhD @LSEecon. Posdoc @PrincetonEcon. Member of @napokolenia.
May 24, 2022 • 22 tweets • 5 min read
Wywiad @Piotr__Wojcik ze Sroczyńskim krytykuje upolitycznioną dyskusje o inflacji, ale sam wprowadza jeszcze więcej zamętu.

Są tutaj opinie słuszne: znaczna część inflacji jest spowodowana czynnikami zewnętrznymi; stopy na lokatach z opóźnieniem reagują na ruchy RPP przez nadpłynność; ani rząd ani opozycja nie oferują rozwiązań, a przerzucanie się inflacyjnymi obelgami jest płytkie i tendencyjne.
Mar 24, 2022 • 21 tweets • 6 min read
The What if?… study on the effects of RU energy ban (below) was published on 7 March, 2 weeks after the start of this atrocious war.

A long-ish thread on (a) how incredible that is, and (b) how it’s been under-utilised by the policymakers. 1/20 2/20 Just let that sink in: *2 weeks* into this war, German policymakers had on their desks a concise, lucid and detailed study of the economic effects of a policy tool (energy ban) that could actually make a difference in this war.
Mar 23, 2022 • 9 tweets • 9 min read
Putin is finding new ways to circumvent sanctions, while EU debate on 🇷🇺 energy ban is stuck

It's totally unsustainable

In a @ProSyn piece w @MSchularick we propose a way to break the deadlock -

forward guidance on sanctions: 1/7

project-syndicate.org/commentary/gra… In recent days, the ruble stabilized and then appreciated sharply.

RU govt bond yields have fallen back.

The consensus forecast for Russia GDP growth in 2022 stands at -8% – a sharp contraction, but hardly a collapse.

It's blatantly obvious we have not done enough. 2/7
Mar 16, 2022 • 19 tweets • 15 min read
The debate on 🇷🇺 oil & gas ban to #StopFundTheWar & #StandWithUkraine is important. 🇺🇦🌻

I put together a list of arguments against the ban, debunking them 1-by-1 (a "myth buster")

Hope it's constructive & useful 4 all involved.

PDF here:

dropbox.com/s/fvd59j8ksp2t…

16 myths: ImageImage MYTH 1:We are not financing Putin’s war (b/c of sanctions, he cannot use the billions of euros/dollars we send him anyway).

FALSE: there’s no doubt that a ban would drastically limit the real resources available for war.

numbers: beyond-coal.eu/russian-fossil…

see links in the PDF
Mar 14, 2022 • 10 tweets • 11 min read
One *super basic* thing that has been missing from the 🇷🇺 oil & gas embargo econ debate is some PERSPECTIVE.

We have seen terms like "poverty", "huge impact", particularly in 🇩🇪 (a pivotal country, so I will focus on it).

To help with perspective, some v basic charts: 1/n First, 🇩🇪 annual GDP growth.

The red diamond is IMF fcast for '22, adjusted lower for the recent rise in energy prices.

The grey swathe is a range of embargo impact e.g. from @GoldmanSachs & @ben_moll @kuhnmo @MSchularick @BachmannRudi and others econtribute.de/RePEc/ajk/ajkp… 2/n
Mar 13, 2022 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
Another input into the energy imports embargo 🇩🇪 debate, now from @MonikaSchnitzer.

Unfortunately rather than the advertised "balanced and unexcited assessment of the tradeoffs" we get a bunch of gut feelings, unsubstantiated claims, and outright errors and misunderstandings. Gut feelings: "huge" economic impact. I don't deny there'll be a cost, perhaps significant. But w/o evidence or analysis, this is scaremongering.

Show us your model / assumptions / simulations / regressions / back of the envelopes
Mar 12, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Can't stop thinking about this:

"Wir reden von Armut" - "We're talking about poverty"

said Robert Habeck, German vice chancellor and economic minister of economy and climate @BMWK

No, he was not reflecting on the fate of 2 million who have fled Ukraine in as many weeks, ... clutching on to a plastic bag with what's left of their life's possessions.

He also wasn't talking about Mariupol's residents destined to die of starvation & dehydration, or shelling.

He was reflecting on the ~0.5-6% (I'm generous*) hit to annual GDP per capita in Germany, ...
Feb 8, 2021 • 14 tweets • 8 min read
📉UNEVEN GROWTH📈– Automation’s Impact on Income and Wealth Inequality, w @ben_moll @pascualrpo

A brand new & improved version of our paper out today @nberpubs:

nber.org/papers/w28440?…

Main idea + key results (thread): 🤖🧵

(tagging some whose great work we draw on🙏) Image What are the distributional consequences of shifts in technology? Who wins and who loses, and why?

Much has been said about the uneven impact of technology on wages of different workers (@davidautor, @lkatz42).
Jul 2, 2019 • 8 tweets • 4 min read
UNEVEN GROWTH: NEW PAPER [Thread] Over the past 4 decades, gains from growth have been very unevenly distributed. Why is that? In a new paper, Ben Moll @pascualrpo & I consider the role of automation in driving the rise in inequality, inc at the v top: princeton.edu/%7Emoll/UG.pdf 1/7 The key feature of our theory is that technology permanently affects rates of return. By raising return to capital automation results in rapid individual wealth accumulation and thus higher wealth inequality. This is related to @PikettyLeMonde 'r-g’ argument. 2/7