Stinson 🌲🪓 🏠 Profile picture
#Lumber trader, short hedger, working dad of 4. Fly Fishing. Chiefs. #BuildMoreHomes ⬆️4LNGR; “birds”
Mar 3 4 tweets 1 min read
#Lumber thoughts:
seems like we are going to break the all-time high.The industry largely accepts this. $2000/mbf is on everyone's mind.

Why? Some are caught short...again...BUT most folks did good job buying but have gotten absolutely hosed by rail logistics out of Canada 1/x There are stacks of lumber piled up at the producer that are stuck there. 100% of sold, and likely sold at numbers below $1000. But rail cars can't get to the producers to get loaded. Maybe 8 weeks behind now? 2/x
Aug 17, 2021 15 tweets 3 min read
Shall we revisit my offer to buy lumber swaps at $1,300 for next two years? I think it’s time for a status update. Here is the original bid I posted:
Jun 18, 2021 5 tweets 1 min read
Why hasn't my supplier shown me lower prices:

Suppliers average cost is still very high. They have to buy a lot of cheaper lumber to offset the costs of a lot of expensive lumber.

No one has bought a lot of cheap stuff yet to bring their avg cost down! Market still falling in a weird way, you're quotes won't come down until the market bottoms. That happens when your supplier steps in to buy more, often making market bounce.

So, once the bottom is in and that lower price works its way into avg costs, THEN quotes get cheaper.
May 20, 2021 5 tweets 1 min read
Lumber thoughts:
Things I’m seeing now that are new to this rally:

1- demand side is finally pushing back. Capacity complaints more so than price complaints.

2- lumber yards willing to buy for deliveries 8 weeks out. Trying to get coverage for q3 at record higher prices.

🧵 3- May futures expiration was kinda....boring. If there was a scramble for prompt wood, May contract would have shot up that last week of trading. It didn’t.

4- My business of JIT truck delivery is slow and volatile. Not much panic.

5- Sawmill inventories trending up per data
Apr 12, 2021 4 tweets 1 min read
To understand what is happening in the near term lumber market, here are a few scenarios:

Framing packages for home builders were agreed to 30-45 days ago. Lumber yards didn’t cover that commitment anticipating prices would dip soon. No dip, deadline approaching, gotta cover. Home builders have delayed issuing POs to lumber yards thinking prices we dip. They delayed q4 projects to q1. No dip came, deadlines approaching, gotta start the project no matter what.

Same dynamic as before.