Technical & Sentiment Signals: What the Tape Is Saying

Indices at all-time highs do not tell the whole story.

The technical backdrop is sending both caution and confirmation signals at the same time.

Here is how the current setup looks under the hood. 2/
Start with the S&P 500 ($SPY).

The index has closed above its upper Bollinger Band in 7 of the last 8 sessions.

Historically, this means momentum is very strong, but the short term is stretched.

Sectors & Style Factors: Where’s the Smart Money Rotating?

The index headlines say “all-time highs,” but under the hood there is a major shift in which sectors and style factors are driving the tape.

Here is what’s moving beneath the S&P’s record levels. 2/
First, a snapshot.

Last session, Consumer Discretionary, Materials, and Energy led declines, each down more than 1 percent on the day.

Meanwhile, classic defensives like Utilities and Consumer Staples squeezed out modest gains.

Breadth was negative, resembling a classic post-holiday hangover.

The Macro Backdrop: “No Recession, No Problem?”

If you’re wondering why risk assets keep climbing despite warnings of a slowdown, look no further than the macro tape.

The US labor market remains resilient:
Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) have beaten expectations for multiple months, keeping the consumer engine alive. 2/
Strong jobs mean strong households.

US consumer discretionary spending hasn’t cracked, yet the sector remains under-owned versus historical levels.

In this week’s sector snapshot, XLY was the worst performer (–1.47% week-to-date) but could benefit as investors rotate out of defensives.

The Small Cap Summer Trade

Small caps are back on the radar and the setup into mid-July is turning heads for good reason.

The Russell 2000 ($IWM) is up ~6.3% YTD and ~2.4% MTD, outperforming the S&P 500 on a rolling 5-day basis for the first time in weeks. 2/
What’s driving it?

Bank capital relief and signs of easier lending are a tailwind for small business credit.

Renewed stimulus chatter for SMEs.

Strong NFP prints for months point to no imminent recession.

An improved QSBS tax benefit is making private small-cap equity more attractive.

4 THINGS WE LOOK AT BEFORE WE INVEST

In private markets, due diligence doesn’t start with spreadsheets, it starts with filters.

Most investors think great deals are about upside.

But upside is cheap if you can’t protect the downside first.

The best private investors spend 90% of their energy killing bad deals fast, so they can say yes to the right one when it appears.

Here’s the 4-point filter @LumidaWealth runs on every single deal. 🧵 1/ Provenance - Where Did This Deal Come From?

We care deeply about where an opportunity originates.

In private markets, the source of a deal is often more important than the deal itself.

Did it come through a trusted network?

Was it shown to us early - or did it get shopped around 15 times already?

Was it curated by a sponsor or investor with real skin in the game?

Good provenance means we know who touched it, who vetted it, who believes in it.

Poor provenance is where hidden liabilities live - regulatory landmines, misaligned sellers, shady middlemen.

In short: If we can’t trust the chain of custody, we’re out.

Huberman’s Daily Blueprint

7 Science Tools for Focus, Mood & Sleep

@hubermanlab spent decades decoding how your brain really works.

Here’s how to run yours better — daily. 🧵 1/
Know your body clock

Write down when you wake up → find your temperature minimum (~2 hrs before).

Your peak focus window? ~4–6 hrs after that point.

Why the Fed Blocked America’s Most Compliant Crypto Bank

Wall Street veteran Caitlin Long built Custodia Bank to fully align crypto with U.S. regulation.
Wyoming consulted the Fed 100+ times creating its SPDI charter—yet Custodia was denied a Master Account.
Even Sen. Cynthia Lummis called it “unacceptable.”

@CaitlinLong_ @custodiabank #CryptoBanking From Wall Street to Bitcoin

Long spent 22 years managing $500B+ at Morgan Stanley & Credit Suisse.
In 2012, she discovered Bitcoin and saw it as a solution to everything broken in finance:

☑️ Opacity
☑️ Counterparty risk
☑️ Monetary manipulation

#Bitcoin #FinanceReform

1/ Daily News Round-Up:

- China’s AI startups challenge global leaders.  
- Trump grants temp tariff relief for automakers.  
- Rising mortgage rates hit homebuilder stocks. 2/ Lufthansa reported a challenging 2024, with net profit declining to €1.38 billion from €1.67 billion the previous year.

lumidanews.com/lufthansa-eyes…

1/ Daily News Round-Up:  

- US job growth slowed in January amid weather disruptions.  
- Trump plans reciprocal tariffs on trade partners.  
- Google exits Snowflake investment, selling all shares.  
- Market rally expands beyond Big Tech.  
- Crypto firms ramp up D.C. lobbying.  
- Judge blocks Musk from Treasury data. 2/ The US labor market showed moderation in January, with job growth cooling after two strong months, partly due to winter weather and Los Angeles-area wildfires.

lumidanews.com/global-economy…

1/ Daily News Round-Up:

- OpenAI's 99.9% accurate AI text detector remains unreleased
- FedEx to cut costs by eliminating duplicate trucks
- China's GDP grows 4.9%, fueled by government spending
- US credit traders hedge against economic downturn 2/ Credit traders are aggressively hedging against potential economic downturns in the US, signaling rising concern about economic stability. 

> Over the past month, the cost of credit default swaps (CDS) on US investment-grade debt surged by 20%.

lumida.com/us-economy-wob…