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Zayyan Profile picture
Zayyan
@MCIAZayyan
President of @midstonecentre | National Security | International Affairs | Geopolitics | Militancy | Conflict | UK | Af-Pak | Middle East
Mar 11 • 24 tweets • 4 min read
There’s a lot of talk about the political process that must go alongside military operations in Balochistan. Many see this as a 🥕 & stick approach, where CT is paired with addressing grievances. Sounds logical, but it’s an overused talking point that ignores realities. 🧵👇 1/ People say you can’t win counterterrorism without political engagement. That’s true in the long-term. But in Pakistan’s case, this idea has become an obsession that blinds people to the actual problem in Balochistan.
Mar 11 • 27 tweets • 4 min read
Thread: Why doesn’t Pakistan publicly name Iran when Baloch separatist groups attack, despite their known links to Iran? Instead, Pakistanis often name India. The answer is deeper than just sectarianism, it’s about Iran’s strategic influence operations in Pakistan. 🧵👇 1/ There’s a common misconception that Pakistan avoids blaming Iran due to Islamic or Shia solidarity. That’s an oversimplification. Iran has built a highly tailored influence network inside Pakistan that impacts every major political, ethnic & religious group.
Apr 6, 2024 • 37 tweets • 6 min read
The world nervously waits for what could trigger a devastating conflict — Iran may soon directly respond to Israel after airstrikes on Iran's embassy in Damascus.

This would be the first time either country has directly & openly struck the other.

Here are some thoughts: Israeli intel sees the Iranian retaliation coming through its own forces, & not Hezbollah. What could this look like? Perhaps retaliation could come via Iran's assortment of ballistic missiles, suicide drones, & other weapons. All of this could happen alongside cyber attacks.
Mar 26, 2024 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
Reminder: When Iranian linked Baloch terrorists killed Chinese nationals & sabotaged CPEC, Beijing didn't condemn Tehran. Instead, they told Pakistan to "do more", & rewarded Tehran by shifting their investment interest over to Iran, including Iran's own Balochistan. Nowadays, the Taliban are viewed as a more reliable investment (& even security) partner than Pakistan, & many multinational interests/plans align, including with Iran.
Jan 19, 2024 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
This isn't the end of the world at all.

• De-escalation shows Iran a capable Pakistan that doesn't need to be poked
• Pakistan expressed awareness on Iranian terror sponsoring
• Pakistan demonstrated capacity to conduct military operations The key thing remains a commitment to dealing with Iranian terror, political, religious & economic proxies (yes, all & more exist) inside Pakistan. Some of these elements act willingly or unwittingly in Iran's favour.