Great to collaborate with @AndurandPierre on this piece for @CarbonPulse looking at a crucial point: despite record-high carbon prices EU-ETS emissions are actually now going up when they should be declining at 4.2% per year if we are to align with 2030 cap and NZ target beyond.
Self-evidently, this means that EUA prices are not yet high enough to drive structural decarbonization. Against this backdrop, how should the market and policymakers be thinking about the pricing framework for EUAs from here?
Jan 1, 2022 • 12 tweets • 3 min read
1/12 After watching the brilliant/funny/disturbing #DontLookUp I was reminded of 'Hamlet': for 'Hamlet' is also about the perils of inaction, and 'Hamlet' can also be read as a parable on climate change. Quick Shakespeare-inspired new-year's thread on the need for climate action.
2/12 Hamlet is the heir to the Danish throne whose father, the King, has been murdered by Hamlet's uncle (the King's brother). Not content with fratricide, the uncle then marries the King's widow (Hamlet's mother) and usurps the throne.
Dec 21, 2021 • 23 tweets • 5 min read
1/With EU already reeling from record high energy prices Germany will close 4GW of nuke capacity next week and then on 31 Dec 2022 its final 4GW will also close. Forever. This will mean higher power and CO2 prices, and reduced security of supply. THREAD @OilSheppard@JavierBlas
2/To start with, let’s be clear about this: current record-high energy prices are not going to stop this from happening. Germany's new Environment Minister stated yest that the definitive phase-out of Germany’s remaining nuclear power is “irreversible”: rnd.de/politik/bundes…
Dec 17, 2021 • 16 tweets • 4 min read
The Potsdam Institute for Climate research (PIK) published a report two days ago saying that the EU-ETS should face greater oversight to distinguish 'beneficial speculation' from 'detrimental speculation'. Several points to make here, so short thread in order.
First, the PIK is a highly respected world-leading institute on the science of climate change, and having dealt with them many times over the years I have nothing but the highest respect for them. But what is their authority to be opining on the efficiency of financial markets?
May 3, 2021 • 13 tweets • 5 min read
1/12: Typically insightful thread from @Sustainable2050, and surely right that German Constitutional Court (GCC) ruling will require a (much) tougher 2030 German emissions target. This is yet another bullish undercurrent for EUAs. @CarbonBubble@CarbonPulse@RedshawAdvisors
2/12: At its heart, the Court's ruling is about freedom: specifically, the freedom (@Luisamneubauer, #FridaysForFuture, and others) from disproportionately large – and hence excessively freedom-restricting – emissions reductions after 2030. Per the ruling: bundesverfassungsgericht.de/SharedDocs/Pre…
Apr 26, 2021 • 12 tweets • 4 min read
1/11: Yet another new all-time high in EUAs this morning (€47.73/t) so seems like a good moment to offer a reminder on the new pricing paradigm we have entered and how underlying fundamentals justify the market's bullishness (@CarbonBubble, @CarbonPulse, @RedshawAdvisors).
2/11: The EU will very soon have a legally binding target for net zero by 2050, and the EU-ETS is the principal policy tool for delivering this public-policy objective. Meanwhile, the introduction of the MSR in 2019 has made the market much more confident the EU-ETS can deliver.
Dec 31, 2020 • 51 tweets • 10 min read
1/9 What if some of Shakespeare's most famous works were prescient parables about climate change? A look at 'Hamlet', 'Macbeth", 'A Midsummer Night's Dream', and 'King Henry IV, Part 2' through the lens of anthropogenic global warming. First thread of four, this one on 'Hamlet'.
2/9 Hamlet is the heir to the Danish throne whose father, the King, has been murdered by Hamlet's uncle (the King's brother). Not content with fratricide, the uncle then marries the King's widow (Hamlet's mother) and usurps the throne.
Dec 29, 2020 • 11 tweets • 4 min read
1/10 A quick journey through energy markets in 2020 via my articles for the FT this year. TLDR: 2020 is just the trailer for the full feature film that will play out over the next decade (@BNPPAM_COM, @CarbonBubble, @CarbonPulse).
2/10 First, and key to everything else, is this fundamental insight: renewable energy i(wind and solar) is intrinsically deflationary, while fossil fuels are intrinsically inflationary. I set out the logic of this argument in this FT piece of 16 December: ft.com/content/f2a27d…
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