.@vonderleyen gave an important speech on the EU’s view of China today. My reactions (thread): I see in it a transformed European attitude and tone, and a signal for significant changes in policy as well - with intra-EU political implications. / ec.europa.eu/commission/pre… In 2019 the EU expressed its view of China as a partner, a competitor, and a systemic rival (depending on policy area). The compartmentalisation remains, and the EU still marks a distance from US-style decoupling. But it will now take a very different approach than it used to. /

In the mainstream EU narrative about Washington's Inflation Reduction Act, this surely counts as a victory. But is it one? /
US bends to EU pleading on access to green tech handouts ft.com/content/dc9e7b… My esteemed colleague @AndyBounds reports that "Washington has offered to make five minerals used in batteries eligible for subsidies under its green-tech promoting Inflation Reduction Act... if they are mined or processed in the EU". /

Germany’s Baerbock condemns Russia for ‘breaking elementary rules of order’ ft.com/content/5b4235… via @financialtimes @FinancialTimes The best statement from western leaders today is @ABaerbock's: "After months of preparing lies and propaganda, President [Vladimir] Putin decided last night to make good on his threats... Russia alone has chosen this path...Ukrainians have done nothing to justify this bloodshed /

Putin has invaded Ukraine for a third time. He had the decency to wait just long enough not to spoil the West’s party in Munich last week. But now things have got real, as real as @ZelenskyyUa was in his speech (dubbed undiplomatic for its harshness) @MunSecConf. So: / / Having failed to deter, the west is in the position it wanted to avoid: making costly choices. Anything insufficiently proportionate to the crime will be worse than merely accepting Putin’s land grab: it will legitimise further ones and destroy west’s credibility elsewhere. /

There is a lot of sound and fury in the public debate (hopefully the scientists are just doing their thing) about whether or not to give the AstraZeneca vaccine and if so to whom. Sadly it's getting caught up in the Brexit wars too. But here are some numbers I find helpful: / The rare but serious condition possibly associated with the AZ vaccine is, as I understand it, a combination of thrombosis, haemorrhage and low platelet count. It is observed more commonly in women than in men. How rare/how common? /

A very sophisticated take on EU China policy from @adam_tooze, in a field with a lot of breathless commentary. I agree with his analysis but have a couple of niggles nonetheless. /

https://twitter.com/adam_tooze/status/1377211107014799362

@adam_tooze "Europe too needs to recognize the limits of its bargaining power... Beijing may choose to "clean up" the cotton production process in Xinjiang. It may lighten the regime of repression in Hong Kong. But that is not going to modify its basic strategic stance on either question." /

The European Council on Thursday is a moment of truth, unlike most events that are billed as moments of truth. It will tell the world definitively whether European countries want to act together or separately when most it at stake. My take: 1/n ft.com/content/69b90e… 2/n The Spanish government has put forward a proposal that shows a way out of the interminable old standoff. The leaders should all unite behind it.
english.elpais.com/politics/2020-…

Norway putting place draconian measures to prevent covid contagion. All childcare & educational institutions closed, from nurseries/kindergartens to universities. All entertainment establishments closed, except cafeterias/restaurants that can ensure 1m distance between people. 1/ Pubs/bars/theatres etc. closed. So are all sports events. So are hairdressers, massage parlours, tattoo parlours, swimming pools, etc. Frontline health workers prohibited from leaving Norway! Normal public transport but all leisure trips and movement discouraged. 2/

Helicopter money is here! The @ECB's stimulus package today includes a measure that gives away (a small amount) of central bank money. 1/ @ecb Banks making use of TLTRO3 loans from the central bank will pay rate up to 0.25pppa below ECB deposit rate if satisfy conditions for lending to businesses. In other words, they will be lent reserves at a rate below that paid (ie charged) for holding those reserves on deposit 2/

Questions I wish broadcast interviewers would ask cabinet ministers and supportive MPs over the new Irish border proposal (thread): 1. The "consent mechanism" provides that Stormont should endorse the new system during the transition period, ie between 1 Nov 2019 and 31 Dec 2020. What happens if NI institutions don't agree to sit in this short timeline? What is the default if consent cannot be expressed?

It’s a good time to re-up my speculation from December that May and Corbyn would strike a deal, and the reasons for it. /1 on.ft.com/2R0OUgJ The most likely deal is one with the two things they both need/want/accept: the withdrawal agreement and imminent elections. (For May, elections immediately after Brexit Day is her best chance at remaining PM for more than a few months, while sticking it to her worst enemies.) /2

Thread: In my latest @FT column, I explain why the Chequers proposal points to what is both the most likely Brexit outcome and the best available Brexit compromise. Its fundamental idea is a free circulation zone for goods. It should be taken seriously.
ft.com/content/db1854… @FT Chequers still clings to some cake-and-eat-it ideas - in particular the parallel customs systems idea; too narrow a scope of regulatory alignment; and governance proposals based on the delusion that the UK and the EU are equal partners.

My first take on the Meseberg agreement (thread) /1

https://twitter.com/MESandbu/status/1009385285749297153

It’s a mistake to focus too much on the economics of the technical detail; the work here was political. Not just in a grand statecraft sense, but in the clever art-of-the possible deal. /2