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MądryKot316 Profile picture
MądryKot316
@MKot316
Nov 29 • 16 tweets • 4 min read
Recently, using information from Colonel Mashovets, I tried to estimate the pace of production and modernization, and how long the Russians will be able to use the tanks and IFVs stored in warehouses. In this thread, I will try to perform the same analysis for artillery systems. Again, I am not focusing on the numbers themselves, but on the trend of whether the Russians are able to replenish their losses on an ongoing basis.
Oct 31 • 18 tweets • 3 min read
Voenkor Kotenok is one of the Russian milbloggers. I sometimes quote him, although his channel is very nationalistic and mostly repeats the official Kremlin narrative. Therefore, the post I would like to quote really arouses surprise and hope that finally in Russia they are beginning to notice the real situation of their homeland: "Our assessment of the military situation in the zone of the Northern Military District by the public and
Oct 26 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
#Wuhledar I have pointed out several times that Army Group "Vostok" formed approximately 10,000 shock group near Staromayorske. After several reconnaissance battles, yesterday they decided to launch offensives supported by armored equipment towards Velyka Novosilka, Image Shakhtarske and the western part of the Berestove Gorge. Most of the attacks were defeated, but north of Złota Niwa they managed to occupy approximately 12 km2 of terrain (Petrenko's maps) Image
Oct 19 • 16 tweets • 4 min read
Yesterday, a video appeared in which residents of the Far East (probably citizens of the DPRK) were dressing in Russian uniforms. Earlier, Ukrainians, such as Kirill Budanov, reported Koreans in Russian uniforms. Of course, this may be a Russian PSYOPS, as various Russian telegram accounts are trying to emphasize, which is supposed to cause fear in the West and force Ukraine and Western countries to agree to Russian conditions.
Oct 13 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
#Zaporizhzhia a few days ago there was a small Russian offensive action north of occupied Vasylivka, about 40 km from the city of Zaporizhzhia. Specifically, it is the villages of Kamianske and Plavni. Image
Image Of course, Russian telegram channels reported a great success, and the channel "Alan Parker Returns" even announced the creation of a bridgehead on the right bank of the Dnieper (!!!!!) and ordered the city of Zaporizhzhia to prepare... Image
Sep 30 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
#Kursk since my last thread on this fighting area, not much has changed, both sides have not completed their assigned tasks, and the activity of both sides has clearly decreased. However,🇷🇺still intend to oust the AFU from the Kursk region, which is why they continue to move military units north from other directions. In this way, the 38th and 64th Mechanized Rifle Brigades, which have so far operated in the Polohy area,will be transferred from AG Wostok
Sep 19 • 17 tweets • 4 min read
#Kursk as we remember on September 10, the Russians launched a counteroffensive in the western sector of the Kursk region occupied by Ukraine, which I wrote about in the attached thread. The Russians reinforced the troops fighting in the Koronevo area with the following units: the 56th regiment of the 7th airborne assault division and the 51st and 173rd regiments of the 106th airborne division. All of these units were relocated from the Eastern Front.
Sep 14 • 18 tweets • 4 min read
A few days ago, US vice-presidential candidate JD Vance presented the so-called "peace plan", allegedly authored by Donald Trump. I am attaching a link with a detailed analysis of this project. The basic issue is that the plan was not presented by Trump himself, but by "his man". In this way, the presidential candidate left the door open for introducing changes and then accusing Vance of "not understanding something"
Aug 29 • 12 tweets • 3 min read
#Pokrovsk I read yesterday on the portal "Wolya" a very long article about the situation in Donbas and the forecasts of its development. I don't know how much truth there is in it, but it contains the answer to the questions asked in the attached thread.
I will not translate the entire text, but only the conclusions drawn from it. Once again, I will emphasize that I do not know to what extent they will turn out to be true, but they provide some explanation for the current activities of the AFU in Donbas:
Aug 27 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
#Pokrovsk I am attaching a thread by Dr. Marek Kozubel regarding the current situation in Novogrodivka and the causes of the problems that have arisen there for the AFU. Just yesterday I wrote that the situation in Novogrodivka is very strange, the AFU is not fighting, but is methodically withdrawing from the city, which has not happened in this direction so far.
Aug 26 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
#Pokrovsk DeepState update has been released. Looking at it, it can be estimated that the Russians have taken about 1/3 of Novogrodivka. Image No matter how you look at it, it is quite a mysterious trend that in a few days Russia is taking about 1/3 of a city that had 15 thousand inhabitants before the war.
Aug 22 • 15 tweets • 4 min read
#Pokrovsk about 3 weeks ago I pointed out that after the Russians captured Avdiivka, the width of the front in the Pokrovsk direction is constantly decreasing. You can't conduct an endless offensive in this way, because it exposes the flanks and disrupts the logistics of the assault groups.
Aug 18 • 13 tweets • 3 min read
I came across a post by one of the lesser-known Russian propagandists, a certain Andrei Medvedev (he's not the "Wagner" soldier, he probably has nothing to do with Dmitry either). The post is very interesting because it concerns the forecast development of the situation on the front in the near future. Apart from some propaganda nonsense (for example, comparing the offensive in the Kursk Oblast to the action near Krynki),
Aug 13 • 16 tweets • 4 min read
#Pokrovsk everyone is following the AFU offensive on Kursk Oblast, which started about a week ago. Check out the advanced the Russians made in the sector where their main offensive forces are concentrated, i.e. in the direction of Pokrovsk (DeepState maps). On August 7, the Russians' progress was significant and covered: about 700 m2 west of Tymofiivka; in the center of Ivanivka (occupied about 500 m2); Sergiivka came under their control, and advanced posts advanced towards Grodivka (occupied about 4 km2) and
Aug 12 • 11 tweets • 3 min read
#Kursk in the attached tweet I explained that for now I will not write anything about the actions in this direction due to OPSEC. However, information appears in Ukrainian open sources on an ongoing basis, so I am starting to publish some things. On the night of August 6, the AFU attacked two villages in the Kursk region, namely Svierdlikovo and Oleshna. The first one was captured without military action, in the second there was a small shootout.
Aug 6 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
A very interesting post about the situation in the Toretsk and Chasiv Yar direction by Kirill Sazonov from the 41st brigade, I think it is worth translating it in its entirety, as it raises many important issues: "Friends, briefly about the situation. They are climbing more and more actively towards Toretsk, but they are unable to make a gradual, confident advance. The area is specific, and in a one-story building, our assault groups periodically enter their positions, where they did not expect.
May 17 • 12 tweets • 3 min read
General Syrskiy: "Due to the complication of the situation in the east of Ukraine, I have been working for several days in a row in the units that are conducting combat operations in the Kharkiv Region. The enemy expanded the zone of active hostilities by almost 70 kilometers, thus trying to force us to use an additional number of brigades from the reserve.
May 13 • 17 tweets • 7 min read
How many tanks does Russia have in its active fleet at the moment? Before the start of the conflict in Ukraine, the Russian army had, depending on the sources, between 2,600 and 3,500 tanks, let's assume this larger number. altyn73.livejournal.com/1460276.html
Image According to Minister Shoigu's annual reports for the Duma, in 2022 Russia produced and repaired about 800 units, while in 2023 the production was almost symbolic, and Russia relied almost exclusively on repairs, thanks to which it introduced 1500 units to the line.
May 10 • 17 tweets • 5 min read
Observing the daily 🇷🇺 losses, everyone focuses on armored vehicles and artillery, ignoring the MLRS. On the surface, this is justified, because these losses are not significant, and according to the graphics of Euromaidan of Russia, there is still a lot of this equipment left. Image Let's take a look at what it looks like in reality. Thanks to @robbertt4321, we can see how many MLRS Russia had at the beginning of the war and compare them with @Rebel44CZ data. Thus, at the beginning of the war, Russia had about 1150 pcs. in the active army. Image
Apr 15 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
I'm attaching a photo that recently appeared on the X platform, which shows the T-72 tanks remaining in long-term storage warehouses. Image Of course, at first glance you can see that the tanks are incomplete, you don't have to be an expert to notice even the open hatches, which cause rainwater to flood the equipment inside, causing rusting.
Mar 19 • 14 tweets • 4 min read
#Kupyansk It's been about 1.5 months since Forbes magazine announced the start of a major offensive on Kupyansk involving 500 tanks and hundreds of armored vehicles. So far, no major offensive has begun, and according to the words of a Ukrainian soldier nicknamed Balu, Russian actions consist of storming Ukrainian positions in groups of 5-6 people using a minimum amount of equipment. Image