(1/5) A Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event (SSWE) - defined as a reversal of the zonal mean winds from westerly to easterly at 10 Hpa (~20 miles above the ground) and 60°N - occurred on February 16th. Another SSWE is expected in late Feb/early Mar.. (2/5) The SSWE is "displacing" the Stratospheric Polar Vortex (SPV) off the North Pole and onto the Eurasian side of the globe, and it is forecast to remain there into at least early March. SSWEs often increase, but don't guarantee, the likelihood of colder and snowier weather..

(1/4) Here we go, weather fans! The moment you've all been waiting for has finally arrived: my 2022-2023 Winter Outlook! Two primary winter-season influences will be our third-year, "triple-dip" La Nina and "warm blob" to the north/east of Australia.. (2/4) The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) should be most active in phases 4-7 this winter. Although these phases typically mean milder conditions in the eastern U.S. during the 2nd half of winter, they support periods of high-latitude (NAO/AO) blocking from Dec. through mid-Jan..

1/5 Sleet & frz. rain will overspread the Lower Susquehanna Valley from southwest-to-northeast between ~ 10 p.m. and midnight. Temps. will be within a degree or two of freezing for much of the night, and roadway temps. are still above freezing following the recently warmth.. 2/5 I'm expecting a few hundredths to one tenth of an inch of frz. rain to the south of the PA Turnpike & east of Route 15.. with 0.10-0.25" of ice in areas farther north & west. The greatest chance of 0.25" of ice will be north/west of the I-81/78 corridors..