Chief Economist, Financial Products at Bloomberg LP (ECAN & WSL ELECTION Mastermind) mmcdonough10@bloomberg.net *views are my own*
Aug 27 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
(1/5) A look at what is driving the US Unemployment Rate through ECAN<Go>:
Contribution to the US Unemployment Rate from Permanent Job Losers & those Completing Temporary Jobs:
(2/5) Contribution to the US Unemployment Rate from people on Temporary Layoffs: *I think this one is notable*
Nov 29, 2023 • 14 tweets • 2 min read
I just quickly used DS<Go> to conduct a Beige Book-style analysis on U.S. consumers, focusing on insights from recent earnings call transcripts of S&P 500 companies: (This is a very very small sample of the results)
"As lower-income consumers responded to the accumulated impact of inflation and reduced government benefits, we saw a notable pullback in spending, particularly in higher-margin discretionary categories." -Rick Dreiling, Chairman/CEO Dollar Tree
Nov 8, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
(1/5) Election Day Fodder
& a good excuse to use this app I built ages ago
Comparing the Democratic Large Cap Core ETF $DEMZ vs. the Point Bridge America First EFT $MAGA
Firstly, the two ETFs are in fact quite different. They are both also pretty small:
(2/5) Despite the differences in composition, the ETFs are loosely correlated with an R^2 of 0.72:
Nov 7, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
The Bank of England just updated October mortgage rates , the 2Y fixed rate went to 6.01% from 4.17%.
Applying this rate to the nation-wide average house price, and assuming a 15% down payment, your monthly payment would be £1,369 up from £764 at the start of the year: {ECAN}
U.K. mortgage-to-income ratio: {ECAN}
Oct 21, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
(1/2) There has been a significant swing in which party is expected to control the Senate with just 18 days left until the midterm elections. To track this we've added a new US Election section on {ECAN<GO>}.
(2/4) Control of the House is becoming even less competitive: {ECAN<GO>}
Aug 9, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
(1/3) Starting to think about potential labor hoarding... In that vein, here is a chart showing the change in EPS estimates for the Russell 3K vs. the change in the US Unemployment Rate since 1996: (pretty self-explanatory)
(2/3) I was actually somewhat surprised to learn that Russell 3K companies employ nearly 40 million people (so it is a fairly representative index, admittedly though not all of them are located in the US)
Jul 29, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
PCE Price Index up 6.8% YoY, Here's What Drove It: {ECAN<Go>}
PCE Price Index up 6.8% YoY, Here are the Top 5-Subcomponent Contributors: {ECAN<Go>}
Apr 12, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
U.S. CPI YoY% Contributions: {ECAN<Go>}
Digging Deeper on U.S. CPI YoY% Contributions:
Mar 21, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Evolution of Annual CPI Forecasts (dotted lines) vs. Actual (white circles)
Evolution of Annual Unemployment Rate Forecasts (dotted lines) vs. Actual (white circles)
Mar 17, 2022 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
The U.S. Census 2016-2020 ACS 5-year Estimates were released today and I've been building some tools to analyze the data, so you may be seeing a disproportionate amount of Census data charts today. For example, net change of PhDs by county (2020 vs 2019)
Percent of PhD's to Total Population by County: #LosAlamos
Jan 14, 2022 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
U.S. Retail Sales Unexpectedly Dropped 1.9% MoM in December (forecast was -0.1%), What Led the Drop? Online Sales (non-store retailers)! Take a Look:
Here are the Retail Sales levels:
Dec 10, 2021 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
U.S. CPI MoM% & Contributions to Change:
Digging deeper into what drove the CPI MoM% Data:
Nov 15, 2021 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
Quick Look at Inflation & Drivers From Around the World (1/10)
(2/10) U.S. CPI YoY%
Sep 14, 2021 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Breaking Down U.S. CPI MoM%:
Window Coverings ^^^
May 12, 2021 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
CPI YoY: Contributions to Percent Change
Distribution of sub-components (April vs. March)