Latest Twitter Threads by @M_McDonough on Thread Reader App

Aug 27, 2024 • 5 tweets • 2 min read

(1/5) A look at what is driving the US Unemployment Rate through ECAN<Go>:

Contribution to the US Unemployment Rate from Permanent Job Losers & those Completing Temporary Jobs:

(2/5) Contribution to the US Unemployment Rate from people on Temporary Layoffs: *I think this one is notable*

Nov 29, 2023 • 14 tweets • 2 min read

I just quickly used DS<Go> to conduct a Beige Book-style analysis on U.S. consumers, focusing on insights from recent earnings call transcripts of S&P 500 companies: (This is a very very small sample of the results) "As lower-income consumers responded to the accumulated impact of inflation and reduced government benefits, we saw a notable pullback in spending, particularly in higher-margin discretionary categories." -Rick Dreiling, Chairman/CEO Dollar Tree

Nov 8, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read

(1/5) Election Day Fodder
& a good excuse to use this app I built ages ago

Comparing the Democratic Large Cap Core ETF $DEMZ vs. the Point Bridge America First EFT $MAGA

Firstly, the two ETFs are in fact quite different. They are both also pretty small:

(2/5) Despite the differences in composition, the ETFs are loosely correlated with an R^2 of 0.72:

Nov 7, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read

The Bank of England just updated October mortgage rates , the 2Y fixed rate went to 6.01% from 4.17%.
Applying this rate to the nation-wide average house price, and assuming a 15% down payment, your monthly payment would be £1,369 up from £764 at the start of the year: {ECAN}

U.K. mortgage-to-income ratio: {ECAN}

Oct 21, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read

(1/2) There has been a significant swing in which party is expected to control the Senate with just 18 days left until the midterm elections. To track this we've added a new US Election section on {ECAN<GO>}.

(2/4) Control of the House is becoming even less competitive: {ECAN<GO>}

Aug 9, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read

(1/3) Starting to think about potential labor hoarding... In that vein, here is a chart showing the change in EPS estimates for the Russell 3K vs. the change in the US Unemployment Rate since 1996: (pretty self-explanatory)

(2/3) I was actually somewhat surprised to learn that Russell 3K companies employ nearly 40 million people (so it is a fairly representative index, admittedly though not all of them are located in the US)

Jul 29, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read

PCE Price Index up 6.8% YoY, Here's What Drove It: {ECAN<Go>}

PCE Price Index up 6.8% YoY, Here are the Top 5-Subcomponent Contributors: {ECAN<Go>}

Apr 12, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read

U.S. CPI YoY% Contributions: {ECAN<Go>}

Digging Deeper on U.S. CPI YoY% Contributions:

Mar 21, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read

Evolution of Annual CPI Forecasts (dotted lines) vs. Actual (white circles)

Evolution of Annual Unemployment Rate Forecasts (dotted lines) vs. Actual (white circles)

Mar 17, 2022 • 8 tweets • 3 min read

The U.S. Census 2016-2020 ACS 5-year Estimates were released today and I've been building some tools to analyze the data, so you may be seeing a disproportionate amount of Census data charts today. For example, net change of PhDs by county (2020 vs 2019)

Percent of PhD's to Total Population by County: #LosAlamos

Jan 14, 2022 • 6 tweets • 2 min read