Marc Goldwein Profile picture
Proud dad. Nonpartisan budget wonk + econ prof. Tweeting on fiscal & economic policy & the world. Thoughts are ๐ฆ๐ฒ ๐จ๐ฐ๐ง!
Oct 28 โ€ข 11 tweets โ€ข 4 min read
๐ŸšจFINAL ANALYSIS๐Ÿšจ

Vice President Harris would add roughly $4 trillion to the national debt, under our central estimate.

President Trump would add almost $8 trillion to the national debt, under our central estimate.

READ: via @BudgetHawks

Short ๐Ÿงตcrfb.org/papers/fiscal-โ€ฆImage 2) Over the past year or so, my team has painstakingly tracked, interpreted, & estimated every policy proposal put forward by @realDonaldTrump and @KamalaHarris.

We did our best* to translate campaign-level detail to policy and created a high, low, and central estimates.

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*When campaign documents did not provide enough detail, we used information from conversations with campaign staff, speeches, press interview, proposals in the budgets the candidates have previously supposed, and other similar proposals. Our ranges often reflect different possible interpretations, with the central being what we view as the most likely interpretation.
Oct 21 โ€ข 12 tweets โ€ข 5 min read
๐Ÿšจ BREAKING ๐Ÿšจ - Pres Trumpโ€™s campaign plans would lead to a ๐Ÿ‘๐Ÿ‘ ๐ฉ๐ž๐ซ๐œ๐ž๐ง๐ญ ๐’๐จ๐œ๐ข๐š๐ฅ ๐’๐ž๐œ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ฒ ๐‚๐ฎ๐ญ โœ‚๏ธ by driving the #SocialSecurity to ๐’Š๐’๐’”๐’๐’๐’—๐’†๐’๐’„๐’š by ๐Ÿ๐ŸŽ๐Ÿ‘๐Ÿ.

See crfb.org/blogs/what-wouโ€ฆ

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The Trump plans will drain $๐Ÿ.๐Ÿ‘ ๐ญ๐ซ๐ข๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ข๐จ๐ง from the trust funds by ending taxation of benefits, eliminating taxes on tips and overtime, deporting immigrants, who currently pay payroll taxes, an increasing cost-of-living, and thus COLAs through higher tariffs.Image 2) Under current law, CBO projects #SocialSecurity will run out of reserves by 2034 โ€“โ€“ nine years after the next president takes office โ€“โ€“ leading to a 23% across-the-board benefit cut.

Under Trumpโ€™s plans, beneficiaries face a ๐Ÿ‘๐Ÿ‘ ๐ฉ๐ž๐ซ๐œ๐ž๐ง๐ญ benefit cut starting in 2031.

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Jan 10 โ€ข 19 tweets โ€ข 6 min read
๐Ÿšจ New Analysis ๐Ÿšจ

Deficits and debt have exploded since 2001.

๐‘ฉ๐’๐’•๐’‰ ๐’๐’๐’˜๐’†๐’“ ๐’•๐’‚๐’™ ๐‘จ๐‘ต๐‘ซ ๐’‰๐’Š๐’ˆ๐’‰๐’†๐’“ ๐’”๐’‘๐’†๐’๐’…๐’Š๐’๐’ˆ ๐’‚๐’“๐’† ๐’•๐’ ๐’ƒ๐’๐’‚๐’Ž๐’†

@Budgethawks has the receipts to prove it - read here:

๐Ÿงตcrfb.org/papers/riches-โ€ฆ 1) Since 2001, the US turned a $128 billion surplus into a $1.7 trillion deficit a tripled debt-to-GDP to 98 percent.

We try to explain causes of this deterioration 2 ways:
1) By analyzing the cost of policy actions since 2001
2) By analyzing differences between 2001 & 2023

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Oct 4, 2023 โ€ข 23 tweets โ€ข 8 min read
๐Ÿงต๐–๐จ๐ง๐ค-๐“๐ก๐ซ๐ž๐š๐๐Ÿงต

With interest rates at a 16-year high and surging, itโ€™s a good time to talk what ๐‘ ๐ฏ๐ž๐ซ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฌ ๐† means for debt dynamics.

In summary:
โฆฟ ๐‘<๐† improves debt sustainability
โฆฟ ๐‘<๐† doesn't guarantee sustainability
โฆฟ ๐‘>๐† now, so that's bad!

๐Ÿงต 1) Letโ€™s start with some basicsโ€ฆ

R = the average interest rate in government debt.
G = the average growth rate of GDP.

For the last 15 years, and much of history, R has been below G (๐‘<๐†).

Thatโ€™s good for debt sustainability, but it might be over.

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Oct 13, 2022 โ€ข 9 tweets โ€ข 3 min read
๐ŸšจWe have a new paper on ๐™๐™ž๐™จ๐™˜๐™–๐™ก ๐™‹๐™ค๐™ก๐™ž๐™˜๐™ฎ ๐™ž๐™ฃ ๐™– ๐™๐™ž๐™ข๐™š ๐™ค๐™› ๐™ƒ๐™ž๐™œ๐™ ๐™„๐™ฃ๐™›๐™ก๐™–๐™ฉ๐™ž๐™ค๐™ฃ๐Ÿšจ

The tl;dr -- The Federal Reserve is and should be in charge if fighting inflation. But when things are this bad, fiscal policy should help.

๐Ÿงต

crfb.org/papers/fiscal-โ€ฆ 1) The Federal Reserve should lead the fight against inflation.

@jasonfurman & Elmendorf explained, the Fed can

"Act quickly & effectively to adjust interest rates, using its technical expertise & political insulation to balance competing priorities"

brookings.edu/research/if-whโ€ฆ 2/
Oct 11, 2022 โ€ข 5 tweets โ€ข 2 min read
Student debt analysis cancellation is NOT justified to rectify financial harm from COVID-19:
โšซBorrowers are already richer from COVID relief
โšซDelinquency spike claims are based on a math error
โšซInflation erodes debt
โšซCancellation is poorly targeted

crfb.org/blogs/student-โ€ฆ 1/ Remember, personal income was HIGHER in 2020 and 2021 than trend thanks to $6 trillion of COVID relief. And now unemployment is at a 50-year low.

The White House has bragged that โ€œhousehold finances are stronger than pre-pandemic."

We don't need debt cancellation. ImageImage
May 25, 2022 โ€ข 8 tweets โ€ข 3 min read
๐ŸŽ‚ HAPPY CBO DAY ๐ŸŽ‚

The @USCBO is releasing their new โ€œbaselineโ€ today at 2pm.

We expect it to show a one-time fall in deficits and debt-to-GDP, followed by perpetual increases.

A short ๐Ÿงต 1) After running $3 trillion deficits in 2020 and 2021, the 2022 deficit will likely be closer to $1 trillion.

No one has enacted โ€˜debt reductionโ€™ to achieve this.

The main reason for this drop is the expiration of most COVID relief - which cost ~$2 trillion in 2021.

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Apr 7, 2022 โ€ข 10 tweets โ€ข 5 min read
๐Ÿšจ๐ŸŒ NEW ANALYSIS๐ŸŒ๐Ÿšจ - A carbon tax would strengthen BBB's climate provisions. Together they could generate up to $900b of net savings and reducing emissions by 30%!

Via @BudgetHawks: crfb.org/papers/can-carโ€ฆ

THREAD. 1) Build Back Better would spend $550 billion to slow the effects of climate change, including $325 billion of tax breaks and $225 billion of spending.

According to analysis by @EnergyInnovLLC, this would reduce GHG emissions by 17% by 2030 - about half way the Paris target.

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