Proud girl-dad. Nonpartisan budget wonk + econ prof. Tweeting less - on fiscal & economic policy & the world. Thoughts are ๐ฆ๐ฒ ๐จ๐ฐ๐ง! Blue check mark.
@Budgethawks has the receipts to prove it - read here:
๐งตcrfb.org/papers/riches-โฆ1) Since 2001, the US turned a $128 billion surplus into a $1.7 trillion deficit a tripled debt-to-GDP to 98 percent.
We try to explain causes of this deterioration 2 ways: 1) By analyzing the cost of policy actions since 2001 2) By analyzing differences between 2001 & 2023
2/
Oct 4, 2023 โข 23 tweets โข 8 min read
๐งต๐๐จ๐ง๐ค-๐๐ก๐ซ๐๐๐๐งต
With interest rates at a 16-year high and surging, itโs a good time to talk what ๐ ๐ฏ๐๐ซ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฌ ๐ means for debt dynamics.
In summary:
โฆฟ ๐<๐ improves debt sustainability
โฆฟ ๐<๐ doesn't guarantee sustainability
โฆฟ ๐>๐ now, so that's bad!
๐งต
1) Letโs start with some basicsโฆ
R = the average interest rate in government debt.
G = the average growth rate of GDP.
For the last 15 years, and much of history, R has been below G (๐<๐).
Thatโs good for debt sustainability, but it might be over.
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Oct 13, 2022 โข 9 tweets โข 3 min read
๐จWe have a new paper on ๐๐๐จ๐๐๐ก ๐๐ค๐ก๐๐๐ฎ ๐๐ฃ ๐ ๐๐๐ข๐ ๐ค๐ ๐๐๐๐ ๐๐ฃ๐๐ก๐๐ฉ๐๐ค๐ฃ๐จ
The tl;dr -- The Federal Reserve is and should be in charge if fighting inflation. But when things are this bad, fiscal policy should help.
Student debt analysis cancellation is NOT justified to rectify financial harm from COVID-19:
โซBorrowers are already richer from COVID relief
โซDelinquency spike claims are based on a math error
โซInflation erodes debt
โซCancellation is poorly targeted
crfb.org/blogs/student-โฆ1/ Remember, personal income was HIGHER in 2020 and 2021 than trend thanks to $6 trillion of COVID relief. And now unemployment is at a 50-year low.
The White House has bragged that โhousehold finances are stronger than pre-pandemic."
We don't need debt cancellation.
May 25, 2022 โข 8 tweets โข 3 min read
๐ HAPPY CBO DAY ๐
The @USCBO is releasing their new โbaselineโ today at 2pm.
We expect it to show a one-time fall in deficits and debt-to-GDP, followed by perpetual increases.
A short ๐งต
1) After running $3 trillion deficits in 2020 and 2021, the 2022 deficit will likely be closer to $1 trillion.
No one has enacted โdebt reductionโ to achieve this.
The main reason for this drop is the expiration of most COVID relief - which cost ~$2 trillion in 2021.
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Apr 7, 2022 โข 10 tweets โข 5 min read
๐จ๐ NEW ANALYSIS๐๐จ - A carbon tax would strengthen BBB's climate provisions. Together they could generate up to $900b of net savings and reducing emissions by 30%!
THREAD. 1) Build Back Better would spend $550 billion to slow the effects of climate change, including $325 billion of tax breaks and $225 billion of spending.
According to analysis by @EnergyInnovLLC, this would reduce GHG emissions by 17% by 2030 - about half way the Paris target.