Proud dad. Nonpartisan budget wonk + econ prof. Tweeting on fiscal & economic policy & the world. Thoughts are ๐ฆ๐ฒ ๐จ๐ฐ๐ง!
Oct 28 โข 11 tweets โข 4 min read
๐จFINAL ANALYSIS๐จ
Vice President Harris would add roughly $4 trillion to the national debt, under our central estimate.
President Trump would add almost $8 trillion to the national debt, under our central estimate.
READ: via @BudgetHawks
Short ๐งตcrfb.org/papers/fiscal-โฆ2) Over the past year or so, my team has painstakingly tracked, interpreted, & estimated every policy proposal put forward by @realDonaldTrump and @KamalaHarris.
We did our best* to translate campaign-level detail to policy and created a high, low, and central estimates.
3/
*When campaign documents did not provide enough detail, we used information from conversations with campaign staff, speeches, press interview, proposals in the budgets the candidates have previously supposed, and other similar proposals. Our ranges often reflect different possible interpretations, with the central being what we view as the most likely interpretation.
Oct 21 โข 12 tweets โข 5 min read
๐จ BREAKING ๐จ - Pres Trumpโs campaign plans would lead to a ๐๐ ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐จ๐๐ข๐๐ฅ ๐๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ฒ ๐๐ฎ๐ญ โ๏ธ by driving the #SocialSecurity to ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐ by ๐๐๐๐.
The Trump plans will drain $๐.๐ ๐ญ๐ซ๐ข๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ข๐จ๐ง from the trust funds by ending taxation of benefits, eliminating taxes on tips and overtime, deporting immigrants, who currently pay payroll taxes, an increasing cost-of-living, and thus COLAs through higher tariffs.2) Under current law, CBO projects #SocialSecurity will run out of reserves by 2034 โโ nine years after the next president takes office โโ leading to a 23% across-the-board benefit cut.
Under Trumpโs plans, beneficiaries face a ๐๐ ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐๐๐ง๐ญ benefit cut starting in 2031.
@Budgethawks has the receipts to prove it - read here:
๐งตcrfb.org/papers/riches-โฆ1) Since 2001, the US turned a $128 billion surplus into a $1.7 trillion deficit a tripled debt-to-GDP to 98 percent.
We try to explain causes of this deterioration 2 ways: 1) By analyzing the cost of policy actions since 2001 2) By analyzing differences between 2001 & 2023
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Oct 4, 2023 โข 23 tweets โข 8 min read
๐งต๐๐จ๐ง๐ค-๐๐ก๐ซ๐๐๐๐งต
With interest rates at a 16-year high and surging, itโs a good time to talk what ๐ ๐ฏ๐๐ซ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฌ ๐ means for debt dynamics.
In summary:
โฆฟ ๐<๐ improves debt sustainability
โฆฟ ๐<๐ doesn't guarantee sustainability
โฆฟ ๐>๐ now, so that's bad!
๐งต
1) Letโs start with some basicsโฆ
R = the average interest rate in government debt.
G = the average growth rate of GDP.
For the last 15 years, and much of history, R has been below G (๐<๐).
Thatโs good for debt sustainability, but it might be over.
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Oct 13, 2022 โข 9 tweets โข 3 min read
๐จWe have a new paper on ๐๐๐จ๐๐๐ก ๐๐ค๐ก๐๐๐ฎ ๐๐ฃ ๐ ๐๐๐ข๐ ๐ค๐ ๐๐๐๐ ๐๐ฃ๐๐ก๐๐ฉ๐๐ค๐ฃ๐จ
The tl;dr -- The Federal Reserve is and should be in charge if fighting inflation. But when things are this bad, fiscal policy should help.
Student debt analysis cancellation is NOT justified to rectify financial harm from COVID-19:
โซBorrowers are already richer from COVID relief
โซDelinquency spike claims are based on a math error
โซInflation erodes debt
โซCancellation is poorly targeted
crfb.org/blogs/student-โฆ1/ Remember, personal income was HIGHER in 2020 and 2021 than trend thanks to $6 trillion of COVID relief. And now unemployment is at a 50-year low.
The White House has bragged that โhousehold finances are stronger than pre-pandemic."
We don't need debt cancellation.
May 25, 2022 โข 8 tweets โข 3 min read
๐ HAPPY CBO DAY ๐
The @USCBO is releasing their new โbaselineโ today at 2pm.
We expect it to show a one-time fall in deficits and debt-to-GDP, followed by perpetual increases.
A short ๐งต
1) After running $3 trillion deficits in 2020 and 2021, the 2022 deficit will likely be closer to $1 trillion.
No one has enacted โdebt reductionโ to achieve this.
The main reason for this drop is the expiration of most COVID relief - which cost ~$2 trillion in 2021.
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Apr 7, 2022 โข 10 tweets โข 5 min read
๐จ๐ NEW ANALYSIS๐๐จ - A carbon tax would strengthen BBB's climate provisions. Together they could generate up to $900b of net savings and reducing emissions by 30%!
THREAD. 1) Build Back Better would spend $550 billion to slow the effects of climate change, including $325 billion of tax breaks and $225 billion of spending.
According to analysis by @EnergyInnovLLC, this would reduce GHG emissions by 17% by 2030 - about half way the Paris target.