My current read on $BTC is that it looks pretty constructive. I have gotten chopped around in this base a bit but still holding a small line from the buy back in Feb. My view has been that the ETFs are going to draw flows and in an asset where supply is fixed new flows... should mean higher prices. I still think there's a high probability we see 100K this year but doesn't matter what I think as thoughts don't pay. What I like currently is best to see on the weekly where we had a classic shakeout of the lows of the base and snapped...

Market update. Yesterday was pretty historic in terms of the rotation and breadth rip we had. I know every macro bear out there has been hating on the Nasdaq for awhile and calling it a bubble but the reality is we had a BIG positive surge in breadth... and this isn't how bubbles work imho. Bubbles don't look like this...where a massive group of stocks that have underperformed start making new highs. I said awhile ago I thought long small caps my be the most contrarian trade and it went no where...

Starting to wonder if a breakout in the IWM/Russell 2K may be the best contrarian buy I've seen in a LONG time. A few thoughts on this but may get a bit long winded. For starters most people by nature are not contrarian at all (myself included) and lots of traders/investors talk a good game but it's just that and it took me years to learn how this actually works but best examples from my career I actually traded & profited from were...

A great time to explain how I managed this & why as I was planning more comments on this stock from a few perspectives...first of all here are my entries for this name as I've been trading around a position for a few months and talking about how this was the clear liquid leader..

https://twitter.com/tea_trades/status/1661776085158117376

Buys are below, sells on top. So our view was that this was going to be king of AI etc, follow @Beth_Kindig or others smarter than me for more of the fundies/narrative. So we bought some on a pb buy and sold some, then bought it back etc and lightened up yesterday & today...

This is a great question and worth getting more nuanced on, specifically what I mean by 'finance a bigger hold'.

1. At it's most basic I mean time/structure the trade in such a way that you are able to extract a multiple of initial risk that then gives you options...

https://twitter.com/friobzero/status/1661064985231998992

2. In this case using today's example lets say I buy through the pivot and use a tight stop 70$ by measuring just to new highs that would be more than a 4:1 to new highs (300$ to new highs/70=4.28). So I can sell a portion (i'd prefer to scale out) between 2-4x initial risk...

Quick lesson. If I'm going to bottom fish a market this is how I like to do it where you have a chart where the trend is already in your favor and you can try and time an entry where the shorter time frame is attempting to resume/align with the larger trend... this is a touch sloppy however if you look where this resides within the base of the past year THIS is the spot where it ought to likely turn back higher and we've had a few day pause that I can shoot against in terms of risk management...

General market update:

For starters last weeks action was quite poor and potentially damaging to the bulls. I had been saying that IF distribution started to kick up and the pullback went from orderly to disorderly we'd have our answer and that is what took place... The NYSE was acting fine then volume started to surge into week end and we had a 13:1 negative down volume day triggered on Friday. 52 wk new high/lows also started to spike back up although no where near last July or Oct levels.

Ok another great question that is both important and personal, however I'm happy to share as I'm a big believer in 'counting the cost' of things and I'm not just talking money in this case prior to undertaking a significant life change...

https://twitter.com/saleemgaur/status/1620824675055181824

The short answer in regards to money is that I had no outside support in regards to finances and it was a tough go for starters. My wife didn't/doesn't work and we agreed that she wouldn't as we had 2 kids and 2 on the way (5 total now)...

Ok so based on the overwhelmingly positive responses from yesterday mornings thread I thought I would take a question or two that I thought were really good and respond via a new tweet/thread so here goes...

https://twitter.com/MosaicAssetCo/status/1620460099482558466

As to the question of do you reach an apex or place in which you have arrived? I would say yes & no. You reach a point of maturity as a speculator where you understand the relationship between the market/method/myself (3m theory more on that later) where you know your edge...

Ok time for a word of encouragement & personal story for all of you out there who've been a bit banged up over the past year or to anyone thinking about quitting. Early on in my first year on my own in market I was down. Down on money, down on confidence and down on strategy... I'd had grand visions & dreams of making a small fortune once I was able to be in charge (long story) of all the trading decisions and reality had started to set in along with a TON of doubts. I had 2 kids, 2 on the way, no salary, no insurance, no savings...

One last quick update on Gold. Just a reminder I'm not a fan and almost don't like the fact I'm long but so be it and if you got long where I started talking about it most recently now you have some options, however the price action to start the year has been very constructive..

https://twitter.com/MarkRitchie_II/status/1607768538244345858

Actually reminds me a bit of how oil/energy related stocks started trading at the beginning of last year where they just took off as managers were clearly underweight and wanted exposure. So far up 7-9 sessions with really only one lower close and a decent increase in volume...

Ok a few threads observations before a long holiday weekend. Let's start with the stock market. I started the week pointing out the valid FTD and tested the waters. Action was so/so but net positive however some positive changes of character to point out... For starters I'm a BIG believer in consistency in analysis and process. Lots of folks out there LOVE to grab stuff and meld it together just to fit their opinion. For example I was pointing this phenomenon out on @RealVision for the back half of 2021 saying trouble ahead...

BTC update from where I sit...not much has changed other than sentiment being END OF THE WORLD out there and I'm dead serious on that front. Showing 2 weekly charts of the last two cycles and where I was buying crypto for the long term... I am not cherry picking as these were actual buy points I bought. In both cases prices had more than doubled off the lows and the long term trend had turned up first and then we had a classic VCP type action. Again my style is not to try and catch the low price...

Haven't commented on crypto or BTC in awhile so thought I'd make a few comparisons as this is a market I've been trading/invested in now since 2015...its still an avoid from a trading standpoint imo for obvious reasons as everything is in steep downtrends... Looking at the 2018 route we basically found support around 5K and bounced off it all year and formed a massive descending triangle or ledge as I'd call it that finally broke when the general market went risk off late in the year...

Quick thread on one of my core philosophies of speculation, that being financing a longer term hold. Any time I've ever held something for a longer/bigger move (for me that is months/years) it's always been financed...i.e. paid for with profits from the trade itself... good example I forgot about was Gold. I posted this a few times early in the year when it looked like a nice cup & handle on the monthly. I bought it, sold a piece near the highs on the Ukraine invasion and got stopped near $ breakeven on the rest for about a scratch.

General Market Thread...

1. For starters the Nasdaq is oversold in the short term. What is most interesting to me eye is volume over the past 3-4 weeks, all below average while the market has slid lower. 2. Bottoms usually take place with big volume on the downside and enormous volume on a reversal/capitulation type day. We have seen none of that yet however liquidity is clearly thin so we could see a sharp snap back as it hasn't taken much to move this market.

1. Going to try a thread here on some prior bottoms. Every one of these I lived & traded through so I'm NOT cherry picking past examples. I'll show where the low/FTD happened but more importantly where the really good opportunity to get aggressive on the long side appeared. 2. Lets start with the now infamous 2020 example. Markets bottomed on 3/26, we don't get a valid accum day until 4/6 which is where I bought a few stocks but didn't start getting aggressive until the first highlighted area. The 2nd highlighted area I got REALLY aggressive/long