Mark Paul Profile picture
Assistant Prof of Economics & Environmental Studies @NewCollegeofFL. Fellow @rooseveltinst. PhD @UMassEcon. Book FREEDOM IS NOT ENOUGH @UChicagoPress 2022.
Apr 28 7 tweets 2 min read
My new article on Neoliberalism & Climate Change with @anfrafrem is now published in Ecological Economics! It's open access for the next 50 days. A few thoughts:… Activists and scholars increasingly see a major tension between capitalism & climate change. They argue the profit motive is ruining the planet (it is). But the idea that we will transcend capitalism in the timeline necessary to address the climate crisis is, well unlikely.
Feb 18, 2021 20 tweets 7 min read
I can't express how grateful I am to @AyannaPressley for her leadership on full employment. The #JobGuarantee has was a central demand of FDR and New Deal Dems along with Civil Rights leaders. It's time to to make the the dream of MLK, FDR, Scott King, and others a reality. 🧵 1/ Full employment has a rich history here in the US. In fact, it was a cornerstone of the Dem party platform from 1944-1988. The country's first experiment w/ direct employment came in the cold harsh winter of 1933-34 w/ the Civil Works Administration. 2/
Feb 5, 2021 13 tweets 5 min read
Everyone in the West Wing should instead read this @Groundwork paper which puts people at the center of the economy in estimating how much stimulus is needed. Our finding? The economy needs $2-3T on top of the $900B passed to bring back a healthy economy… In the paper, we ask a simple question: How much stimulus does the economy need to run a high pressure labor market that will bring widespread employment and rising real wages? We found the economy needed $3-4.5T in stimulus for that. Since, Congress passed $900B.
Feb 4, 2021 10 tweets 3 min read
Larry Summers has put out a bad faith argument in WaPo. Democrats should NOT take him seriously. The primary concern is providing too little stimulus and a prolonged and deeply painful recovery. The potential costs of going too big are negligible. 1/… First, let's talk about the output gap. Summers takes a top down vs a bottom up approach to the output gap.
When considering full employment/ an economy operating at capacity, we can either 1) calculate a top-down measure via GDP output gap (as Summers and CBO do) 2/
Dec 8, 2020 16 tweets 5 min read
There's no question that Congress needs to pass a major stimulus bill. But how big should it be? Well, @adamshersh & I answer that in a new @Groundwork paper. We estimate that Congress should spend upwards of $4.5 T to resuscitate the economy. THREAD 1/… To estimate how much spending is needed, we first need to estimate just how deep a hole the economy is actually in. The headline unemployment rate has been tumbling, down to 6.7% from a peak of 14.7%. But the headline unemployment rate misses the story: disguised unemployment. 2/
Sep 21, 2020 8 tweets 3 min read
The GND is on the move. Biden is now promising $2T in green spending. House Select Committee offered up a big report this summer. Voters are demanding green stimulus. But how should we finance a GND? @aldatweets & I have thoughts. THREAD 1/… First, let's recognize that we live in a mixed economy. Decarbonization is going to require large amounts of both public and private spending. A recent proposal by @STOmarova calls for a National Investment Authority (NIA) has been getting some attention.…
Sep 3, 2020 8 tweets 3 min read
Just finished Strain's book. The central message?

1) "The American Dream is alive & well...Workers do enjoy the fruits of their labor...The game is not rigged.” ⬆️ mobility is strong

2) Freedom=free markets. We get more freedom via entitlement reform, deregulation, and growth 3) Trump = bad. Why? He "rejected the GOP’s traditional emphasis on the need to reduce projected future spending on Medicare and Social Security."

It's fascinating to see praise for a book by @charlesmurray & @RichLowry but also @LHSummers @jasonfurman @JustinWolfers
Aug 7, 2020 6 tweets 2 min read
A2: First, let's take a step back and ask a this: what would a reasonable society do right now? Would they let people go hungry during a pandemic when there is enough food to go around? Would they let people go homeless when we have more homes than ppl? Would they let ppl go without healthcare when we have enough to provide all with coverage? NO! A reasonable society would pull out all the stops. It'd realize that we're living through unprecedented times. It'd realize that economic security + health are fundamental rights.
Aug 7, 2020 7 tweets 2 min read
Right now, we’re facing a dire public health and economic crisis. And like most things in our structurally racist & sexist economy, the harms associated with these crises are not distributed equally. Let’s dig in! While #jobsday showed a modest downtick in the U3 rate, which is a good sign, the overall picture of the economy, especially for working-class ppl, remains bleak.
Overall U3: 10.2%
Black U3: 14.6%
Hispanic U3: 12.9%
White U3: 9.2%
Jul 27, 2020 10 tweets 3 min read
A bit late here (had shoulder surgery), but @MattBruenig wrote a worthwhile piece on how we structure unemployment insurance. You should read it.

Shockingly, I do take issue with this passage.… Image Matt, as I'm sure you all know, dislikes the JG. He prefers some a UBI.

But I want to point out 3 things:
1) There are different ideas on how to structure a JG

2) There are many different forms of structuring a UBI too.

3) He often talks about these policies in isolation
Jul 24, 2020 8 tweets 4 min read
Congress is falling down on the job. But it's easy to be a critic. Instead, we're here to talk about solutions.

The next round of stimulus needs to be big, and to cover a lot of areas. One area we aren't talking about enough is green stimulus @JooBilly… To support a job-led just recovery, we need a massive influx of federal 💰 to create millions of family-sustaining jobs. What would workers do?

Here's a menu of 100 provisions to rebuilding our communities & put the US on a carbon-neutral path.…
Jun 23, 2020 5 tweets 2 min read
Alright folks, some exciting news: @leahstokes and I have a new report out with @The_SEAP – the new think tank focused on the South that @staceyabrams recently founded. In the report, we dig into decarbonization strategies at the state and local level for the region. 1/n The South is the region most vulnerable to the climate crisis in the US, owing to its high levels of inequality & poverty coupled w/ its susceptibility to extreme heat & flood events. But the climate crisis also presents a significant opportunity for the region. 2/n
Jun 23, 2020 6 tweets 2 min read
While I think Noah and I have the same end-goal – a strong recovery and deep decarbonization, I think he's deeply mistaken here.

To start w/ the good.

1. Noah frames regulations and investments as complements. This is excellent, and often fought against by economists. 1/n 2. Noah seems to embrace industrial policy framework. We can't simply try to get prices right and expect the transition to happen. It's going to require planning, and a lot of it.

3. Lot's of $$$ is needed both for the transition and for the recovery. 2/n
May 8, 2020 9 tweets 4 min read
Look, @LFFriedman is a good journalist. But this is perhaps the most disappointing piece I've seen her write. She decided to run an article on how the GOP thinks there's an inherent tradeoff between the economy and decarbonization. We know this is conservative propaganda. 1/ What's particularly frustrating is that there have been countless studies that show just how devastating inaction will be. Yet there's no mention of it in the article. Lisa has published on this before, but ignores the widespread systemwide collapse that say 4C would bring. 2/
Mar 24, 2020 5 tweets 3 min read
Our top priority must be pub health.

But voters know we're going to need a BIG stimulus to put millions back to work when it's safe. They're demanding that the stimulus be GREEN.

New @DataProgress polling by @jmijincha @aldatweets and yours truly… To meet this enormous challenge, we—along with several other climate and social policy experts—released a Green Stimulus proposal yesterday that demands at least $2 T in green stimulus.…
Mar 23, 2020 5 tweets 1 min read
I'm proud to join an amazing group of policy experts in calling for a massive green stimulus plan.

Our first priority must be public health and safety. Our second priority must be to pass a massive green stimulus to put people back to work and rapidly decarbonize the economy 1/ We propose an green stimulus of at least $2 trillion that creates millions of family-sustaining green jobs and helps make our society and economy stronger and more resilient in the face of pandemic, recession, and climate emergency in the years ahead. 2/n
Mar 17, 2020 4 tweets 1 min read
We should be talking $3.5-5.5T in fiscal stimulus across 3-4 yrs.

$1T is direct cash payments to people for immediate needs. This includes $3k per adult and $1.5K per child per @jasonfurman

$500B for immediate healthcare needs including free testing and treatment + federal funds for Medicare + paid sick/family leave that covers ALL workers + other provisions to bolster the healthcare system for the crisis 2/n
Jan 23, 2020 7 tweets 3 min read
Today, I feel compelled to say that I strongly support @BernieSanders and am confident that he will win the primary, and the Presidency of the United States.

First and foremost, I'm a scholar focused on inequality and the climate crisis in the United States. 1/7 Rampant inequality is literally tearing apart the social fabric of this country. Many tell us that this level of inequality is the price we pay to live in a "rich" society under capitalism.

But let's remember: inequality is a policy choice. There's nothing natural about it. 2/7
Nov 14, 2019 6 tweets 3 min read
This "scoring" of the Warren wealth plan done by @Wharton & reported by @jimtankersley is wrong on a number of levels

For 1, the assessment assumes that the money from a wealth tax go to pay down the debt. That is NOT what @ewarren has proposed.

THREAD… In an economy w/ chronic demand shortfalls, we'd want to spend that money, which is precisely what @ewarren actually proposes!

Second, as @Econ_Marshall points out, taxing wealth DOES NOT necessarily lead to fall in investment.
Oct 9, 2019 7 tweets 2 min read
I'm rereading @GernotWagner & Martin Weitzman's excellent book Climate Shock. First, you should all ready it.

Second, I have a question about framing in enviro econ, and econ write large. They state: "Stronger climate policy now implies higher, immediate economic costs." But what if this is wrong? What if stronger climate policy now implies higher, immediate economic GAINS. What if, an economy w/ insufficient aggregate demand, we could actually increase economic activity via stronger climate policy now?
Feb 25, 2019 5 tweets 1 min read
The recent proposal of a #GreenNewDeal to reduce US greenhouse-gas emissions and expand public investments in renewable energy has been dismissed by much of America's political establishment as an overly ambitious "dream." 1/n… But the real fantasists are those who believe "market-based solutions" can overcome climate change. 2/n