Market Interest Profile picture
Global Macro & Emerging Markets. Not financial advice. #FinTwit #EconTwitter
Dec 19, 2022 4 tweets 1 min read
1/4
What I'd like to see LESS of in 2023 markets:

1) linear extrapolation on non-linear events (hyperinflation/reversal, UR, etc)
2) template-isation: Burns did 'x' so Powell will do 'y'
3) 10yr bull/bear thesis argued daily as though the market can't price enough (commods) 2/4

4) Oversimplification of causality despite huge loopholes.

Good examples:
- USDJPY and YCC; a narrative that went viral and was equally very wrong.
- USDCNY devaluation takes, which willfully ignore the PBoC's muscle.
- China implosion takes (on the milllionth edition)