Global Macro & Emerging Markets. Not financial advice.
#FinTwit #EconTwitter
Dec 19, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
1/4 What I'd like to see LESS of in 2023 markets:
1) linear extrapolation on non-linear events (hyperinflation/reversal, UR, etc) 2) template-isation: Burns did 'x' so Powell will do 'y' 3) 10yr bull/bear thesis argued daily as though the market can't price enough (commods)
2/4
4) Oversimplification of causality despite huge loopholes.
Good examples:
- USDJPY and YCC; a narrative that went viral and was equally very wrong.
- USDCNY devaluation takes, which willfully ignore the PBoC's muscle.
- China implosion takes (on the milllionth edition)