Marsilio's Market Musings Profile picture
Prices & planets, data driven ~ Called both BTC & ETH tops, 1 shot each ~ Traditional astrology Twitter: @MarsilioFirenze ~ Not investment advice DYOR
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15 Sep
#MarsiliosTA

Bollinger bands

Interesting concept - 20MA, then 2 standard deviations away from it create the bands - you can also edit the MA

It does work - like all market indicators, nuance required for best results

If really interested read the book by the creator
Here's BTC with just the daily BBs

So how does this work?

Sometimes taking reversal trade on band is awesome, sometimes slaughtered

Context is key
Slope matters a lot
Divergence is what the pros look for

To explain...
Power move, up or down, is high & close outside the band with the band sloping strongly in direction of the trend - this usually (not always) means continuation

You have to review charts to get this concept but now I will mark arrows with this power move outside band
Read 9 tweets
12 Sep
Also should I continue TA threads?

See hashtag #MarsiliosTA for intro to

pivots
simple MAs
tweaked MACD

combined these give us great idea of "trend" and is my core positioning guidance

if continuing, then:
Bollinger bands & how I use them - divergence & spotting reversals, 1st stage in change of trend

Along with the momentum indicators RSI (better) and stoch (more like early warning, I don't use this much)

Already sketched entry idea, but really I have 3 setups, & 2 variations
Then we have risk management, when to hold, when to cut, stops

Exits - actually back to MACD histogram for this, along with all else
Read 4 tweets
12 Sep
Total Sum

Stocks have gone further & smoother than I ever imagined at start of 2021, unprecedented rally with SPX above smoothly rising D50MA since election except, count them, 2 days!

Obv aided by US tech, GOOGL +60%, MSFT +32%, banks also up decently, energy, pretty broad
And whether market tops on the "worst astro" (maybe just in?) or has even more massive blow-off next year with Jup in Pisces remains to be seen

Near term however, everything lining up for Sept smash

All major index TA
VIX, with VXX SVXY nearly there
Astro many ways weak ahead!
Preferred scenario is risk assets down to end Sept & then another low 10/8-10/10

For stocks probably not easy as aggressive dip buyers have made a lot of $, and indexes come back over and over

This is a sharp counter-trend call but that's how I see it
Read 6 tweets
12 Sep
Index TA

Now some of these lines will make more sense to those who read TA threads

DJI exceeded QR1 AugR1 combo for 2 trading days, since then levels as resistance; slight poke above QR1 9/2 (small red arrow)
Broke SepP 9/7 (orange)
Broke D50MA 9/9
Back under YR1 9/10 (red)
This is significant technical deterioration in short amount of time

Medium term levels acting as resistance
Pivot status change
Break of D50 & yearly level

So, comeback or smash? With astro, thinking smash
SPX

HR1 QR2 resistance
Sept pivot break

Still far above D50MA though
Read 8 tweets
12 Sep
Astro (long thread)

Pluto Rx in Capricorn-Saturn from 6/29
Saturn ruling sign & term, should be quite nasty, these 4' among worst in zodiac. Though some bond rally & covid again, muted impact for markets.

FOMC has twisted everything:

Bad news = QE pumping = good for markets
Could worst astro produce big top? Maybe, but depends on taper schedule; more likely is slow taper & gradual hike so perhaps big blow-off top next year 2022

Neptune in Pisces-Mars from 1/23, Rx from 6/25
Expected volatility & larger moves both ways; this term in play a while
Uranus in Taurus-Jupiter from 7/7, Rx from 8/19
Think this is helping tech & cryptos with Jupiter in Aqu

*

Saturn Rx in Aqu-Ven 6/18
Saturn worse out of term Jupiter, & helping safe havens lift when triggered; but not hitting that hard in big picture

Might take direct?
Read 15 tweets
12 Sep
Full market analysis ahead:

Review
Astro
TA (just a bit)
Sum with next forecast

Check threadreader post after each section

Read what sections interest you

This process has resulted in many accurate takes on major asset classes - focus on indexes, cryptos & safe haven trades
Many - but not all - accurate statements from last week:

From spread,
Indexes: "Prefer 9/6-8 trading top, then lower into following weeks"
Good for indexes so far, main futures made highs 9/2-7 and tests 9/6, leader NQ 9/7 high, then all lower
This gets check!
Cryptos: "Same, but less damage expected, could stretch to 9/10 top"
Ugh, 9/6 key high, but more damage

Hottest coins SOL ALGO LUNA highs closer to 9/10, and ATOM pushing higher today

I don't have different astro on every coin, only general conditions, TA for the rest
Read 11 tweets
12 Sep
Before Sunday routine, crypto TA

It is true that many alts are rocketing higher - combo of Saturn in Aqu, Jupiter Rx in Aqu, NN in Gemini and Mercury in Libra all + for cryptos

But why BTC weak, & others new highs, & which ones, don't know, why combine timing with technicals
BTC

Issue is both important support & resistance nearby, so having battle effect - and concern this could continue for a while with Mercury stationing in Libra
Support:
Lower daily Bollinger (green)
Sharply rising 50MA (purple)
Sept pivot (orange) which has held for 2 days & tested for several, only 1 fractional break

Resistance:
Falling D200MA (black arrow)
YR2 acting as resistance (could turn into support)
Falling 10 & 20 MAs (red)
Read 5 tweets
11 Sep
#Etherium #BTC #Bitcoin #Cryptos

Unique view - planetary motion & price

ETH on top, BTC below, through lens of planets in tropical zodiac signs

Weekly visual update Saturdays
Detailed astro & markets Sundays

I combine technicals & timing to understand markets

Thread >
All charts -
Data through 9/10 close
Colors of zodiac signs are consistent; if you aren't familiar, see legend to right

Saturn

Saturn in Aquarius supporting cryptos
Jupiter

Jupiter in Aquarius also supporting cryptos
Read 15 tweets
10 Sep
For the astro fluent folks I'm about to blow your mind
1st red arrow 10:06 plunge bar but huge comeback
Venus 1 NY 10:06

2nd red arrow momentum low 10:32
Moon 1 NY 10:34

There's more though
Part 2 is:

Per my google sheet the trading theme of Scorpio is

"Check lows, V moves"

And those not listed I have noticed this can be 61-78% Fib retracements (for those familiar)

So that's what happened with Moon in Sco hitting 1 in NY and...
Read 4 tweets
10 Sep
#MarsiliosTA

People asking how to turn on pivots - just use tradingview's built in indicator where you can select yearly. half-year, quarter, etc what you want to check

You can turn it on more than once for different timeframes or use different tabs, then customize the lines
MACD

not based on quant study
& did not do very rigorous experiment

played around until found settings that seemed to line up with pivot & MA signals a lot of the time

regular is 12 26 9

mine much faster - 7 15 5

more signals - if too many zoom out, or be rigorous on filter
So a lot of arrows in the MACD here, change of signal line

But on the way up above rising MAs & pivots longs profit, shorts easy to filter out - you don't short above a 50MA that is screaming higher or on top of monthly pivot

Just think about the 3 together & see when line up
Read 5 tweets
8 Sep
Data for BTC Moon cnj Mercury is actually negative... I'll try to remember to post chart later
I measure these aspects very tight 1'

Astro savvy ppl can check when this becomes exactly within orb

But I'm increasingly convinced real time NY chart is in play on these very short term swings
Damn that's going straight down so far
Read 5 tweets
6 Sep
Next TA lesson - #MarsiliosTA

Sooo simple

haha

Simple Moving Averages

10
20
50
100
200

that's it!

But I do have a nifty twist...
Here's BTC with only these MAs

And when the slope is negative they go red

Otherwise when up sloping:

10 = blue
20 = orange
50 = purple
100 = thin black
200 = thick black
There are many different moving average systems

Some use Exponential EMA, and different numbers 9 13 21 etc, & many variations from there

But I find these work well enough and the beauty is they seem to be active down to 1 & 5 minute levels, like these:
Read 6 tweets
5 Sep
Already posted a lot but interested in Mercury speed

Will try to keep this simple ;)

Noticed slowdown below 1' per day can be important - is it?

Data:

DJI 1945-current
all markets
Fast & Direct
Slow & Direct, below 1' per day
Slow & Rx
(Fast & Rx not possible)
All signs
What this means is -

the slowdown period is actually much worse than Rx

When we look at all markets & all data since 1945
But in bull markets, *surprise*, Mercury Rx is best!

Mercury direct & slow the worst of the 3, but less difference between the conditions
Read 8 tweets
5 Sep
Total Sum
In big picture 2 major positives for stocks/risk just happened or about to:
NN in term of Mercury last week, historical bullish edge
Jupiter in term Mars this week, best term for stocks in bull markets by decent margin

What to make of this?
I've been trying to wrap head around indexes continuing to coast higher with what is my view, significant astro weakness:

Pluto in Cap-Saturn (double Saturn sign & term ruler)
Jupiter in Aquarius-Saturn (same!)

Instead just easy coast up up up

My conclusion has been:
Bad news = good, because bad = QE continues, and no hikes

And maybe I have been dumb to adopt this so late, but one wonders, how this can continue - fasting doubling of SPX ever? 100%+ off covid low, 18 months.

Recently validated a few times with JPow and EE#
Read 10 tweets
5 Sep
Quick Index TA

Can go on about this too, but only so much time

See #MarsiliosTA for ongoing intro to these methods, plus abbreviations in google sheet (link later)

DJI
Stunning steroid rally continues
DJI bull victory above YR1 (arrow) - not near long term level currently
DJI daily
But unlike others no new high last week, and sitting on QR1 (red arrow)

If any trouble this will move below its SepP at 35230 (orange)

hm, DJI more easily bearish but usually the worst short, what to do
SPX
Floated above YR1, then above HR1 (red crosses & arrows respectively)
Testing DeMark YR1 - jeez I'd like for some real institutional pros to take a whack at this
For now level to watch 4540, showing daily as well - they are nibbling on hedges / shorts
Read 8 tweets
5 Sep
Astro

Rundown of planet positions from Pluto on down

I cannot post each data view, study or chart in this format, but that is in the background of my process

Structure:
Outers
Superiors
Stations & Node events
Sun & ruler, Venus, Mercury
Term changes of note
Moon
Aspects
Pluto Rx in Capricorn-Saturn from 6/29
Saturn ruling sign & term, should be quite nasty as these 4' among worst in zodiac. Though some bond rally & covid again, a muted impact for markets thus far.

FOMC has twisted everything:

Bad news = QE pumping = good for markets
Could worst astro produce big top? Maybe, but depends on taper schedule; more likely is slow taper & gradual hike so perhaps big blow-off top next year 2022

Neptune in Pisces-Mars from 1/23, Rx from 6/25
Expected volatility & larger moves both ways; this term in play a while
Read 16 tweets
5 Sep
Full market analysis ahead:

Review
Astro
TA (just a bit)
Sum with next forecast

Check threadreader post after each section

Read what sections interest you

This process has resulted in many accurate takes on major asset classes - focus on indexes, cryptos & safe haven trades
Last week's sum



"Stocks - bull party to continue; maybe quiet week ahead but expecting higher than Friday's highs this week or next"
check for SPX NDX RUT NYA ARKK, just not DJI
"Cryptos - Prefer more positive from early 8/30 or anytime from now; if does not kick in then 9/2 low & UP"
ETH low late 8/29 then massive rally
BTC low late 8/31 then up
next largest market cap ADA 8/30 then up

close enough? i think so esp if you took the ETH long
Read 9 tweets
4 Sep
#Etherium #BTC #Bitcoin #Cryptos

Unique view - planetary motion & price

ETH on top, BTC below, through lens of planets in tropical zodiac signs

Weekly visual update Saturdays
Detailed astro & markets Sundays

I combine technicals & timing to understand markets

Thread >
Daily charts updated through 9/3 close

See color legend to right for signs if not familiar

Saturn

Saturn in Aquarius helping cryptos
Jupiter

Jupiter in Aquarius also helping cryptos!
Read 12 tweets
3 Sep
Welcome new followers!

Since I am now the "term guru" here are some charts that show my fascination with this technique.

DJI (Dow Jones Industrials)
Average daily % return
1945 - Aug 2021
Organized by Pluto's term position

Jupiter on top
Mercury #2
Mars & Saturn last
Skipping over Neptune, because it is more cloudy lol

(No really, not sure if postwar data patterns persist or just due to specific sign-term combos)

Uranus

Same data period
DJI 1945-2021

Jupiter on top, Saturn way last

How did Pluto & Uranus both do this at the same time?
Saturn

DJI 1945-2021

Saturn also has Jupiter on top!

But did better in its own term this time.
Read 12 tweets
3 Sep
#MarsiliosTA

Follow up on S & R levels to show a couple short term examples

Weekly & daily pivots important for trend, and pullbacks to the WP or DP often great buys in uptrend.

But also because entire structure is more clustered, S & R levels a lot more likely to trade.
BTC 1H chart with

All levels plus weeklies
Fibonacci weeklies in red
DeMark weeklies in orange

No daily levels for clarity

This week near tag of yearly level (YR2 as support), but no other half-year, quarterly or monthly levels in play at all

Action all on weeklies
Arrows are just showing turns - sometimes chop, it happens

1st brown = fail at WP then down
1st red = Fib S1 low
green = WS1 low of week
2nd brown = WP chop a bit
2nd red = Fib R1 resistance
3rd brown = WP pullback hold

Crypto traders if you are not interested this...
Read 5 tweets
2 Sep
#MarsiliosTA

The pivot is the basic bull/bear dividing line, so trend indicator

Most pivot systems include support & resistance levels, so these are potential turn indicators

There are various formulas:

R1 = P*2 - L(ow)
S1 = P*2 - H(igh)
R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
But don't worry about the math because all we need to do is turn them on in tradingview or whatever you are using

So here is DJI with yearly levels only, P & S & R

2020 panic covid low, smart $ bought YS3

Recently YR1 saw minor selling a few times, then turned into support
SPX
2020 covid low on YS2

Similar "resistance into support" idea on YR1 later in 2020 and again this year
Read 11 tweets