Share this page!

Enter URL or ID to Unroll

You can paste full URL like: https://x.com/threadreaderapp/status/1644127596119195649
or just the ID like: 1644127596119195649

How to get URL link on X (Twitter) App

  1. On the Twitter thread, click on or icon on the bottom
  2. Click again on or Share Via icon
  3. Click on Copy Link to Tweet
  4. Paste it above and click "Unroll Thread"!
  5. More info at Twitter Help
Martin Juhl Profile picture
Martin Juhl
@MartinJuhl2
PhD, Drug Development, Diploma in Pharmaceutical Medicine (ECPM). Studied @ Uni of Copenhagen, UIUC, DTU, Harvard, @FulbrightPrgrm. Opinions my own
Jan 20 • 43 tweets • 14 min read
Some suggested excess mortality is due to COVID-19 vaccination rollout but forgot to look at C-19 deaths

📈 Plot for each country feature:
🟠 Excess Mortality
🔴 C-19 Deaths
⚪️ Vaccination

COVID-19 deaths correlate much more closely with excess deaths than vaccination Image Downloaded and used @OurWorldInData Full data (CSV)

📈 Analysis (2020-2023): Excess Mortality, COVID-19 Deaths, and Vaccinations in Australia

🔍 Key Correlations:
- COVID-19 Deaths vs Excess Mortality: 0.68
- Vaccinations vs Excess Mortality: -0.16 bit.ly/3Snv7Hg
Image
Jul 8, 2022 • 10 tweets • 5 min read
Det er skræmmende hvordan misinformation for lov at trives og delt vidt og bredt.

Her eksemplificeret i et meget delt debat-indlæg fra Berlingske.

Endda fra personer der burde vide bedre og være mere nysgerrige i at undersøge hvor valide de delte data er. Image Danmark og Sverige har IKKE klaret sig ens mht overdødelighed, hvilket nedenstående graf tydeligt viser.
fra @OurWorldInData
ourworldindata.org/explorers/coro… Image
Sep 7, 2021 • 12 tweets • 5 min read
Impressive new Vaccine Effectiveness Results from Denmark

Infection (Delta)
➡️Pfizer-BioNTech: 84.6% (83.8-85.3)
➡️Moderna: 88.9% (86.6-90.9)

Hospitalization (Delta)
➡️Pfizer-BioNTech: 94.4% (92.5-95.8)
➡️Moderna: 100% (0-100)

@sailorrooscout

files.ssi.dk/covid19/gennem… Deaths (incl US for comparison)
Aug 5, 2021 • 26 tweets • 11 min read
Jeg er også stor fortaler for en ordentlig og saglig debat.

Her kommer lidt nuancering og input til @StabellBenn LinkedIn opslag, der indeholder 6 punkter. Punkt 1: sikkerhed
Ny gennemgang af @SSTSundhed bekræfter sikkerheden ved vaccination af børn.

Sikkerhedsovervågning fra knap 6 mill vaccinerede børn i USA, gør, at vi er blevet yderligere betrygget af sikkerheden ved at anvende mRNA-vacciner til børn.
sst.dk/da/nyheder/202…
Aug 5, 2021 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Høj tilslutning til vaccinerne i Danmark, stærkt 💪 - spændende hvor den lander, pt er der 18% der har mulighed for at blive vaccineret, som ikke har benyttet sig af muligheden.
1/4
 sst.dk/-/media/Udgive… Her er andelen som er vaccineret baseret på alder.
2/4
Jul 22, 2021 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
The good & the bad news

➡️Bad news first: early data from Israel indicates that vaccine efficacy in preventing infection & symptomatic disease (mainly Pfizer-BioNTech) goes from 75-79% to 16% within 4 months against the Delta variant ➡️The good news is that the vaccines maintain 88-91% protection against hospitalizations & severe over 4 months against the Delta variant
Jun 30, 2021 • 13 tweets • 4 min read
Comparison of some of the countries with a current surge Here are cases on log scale
May 28, 2021 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
There has been a lot of focus on death toll in Brazil and India, but surprisingly little regarding Peru.

Peru now have excess deaths closing in on 0.6% of the entire population, which is 1 out of every 166 person

Excess deaths now account for 143% compared to previous years Here are a visual of specific countries
May 26, 2021 • 11 tweets • 5 min read
Svært at forstå dette nej

Følgende risiko for indlæggelse & intensiv-indl ved smitte inklusiv 2x mørketal

Indlæggelse
10-19=0,24% (1:400)
20-29=0,68% (1:150)

Intensiv
10-19=0,02% (1:5000)
20-29=0,04% (1:2800)

mRNA vaccine anafylaksi 2-5 pr 1 mill

1/x
 politiken.dk/forbrugogliv/s… Oversigt over data

Link til SST
sst.dk/da/corona/stat…
mRNA vaccine CDC anafylaksi-risiko 2-5 pr 1 million
cdc.gov/coronavirus/20…
Serologi-studie i Mar/Apr fandt 325-375000 smittede
ssi.dk/aktuelt/nyhede…
Antal påviste i Apr 240000
worldometers.info/coronavirus/co…
Mørketal 1,5
2/x Image
May 14, 2021 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
København: Barerne lukker kl. 23. Man skal dog vise coronapas
Stockholm: Lukketid kl. 20.30
Helsingfors: Lukketid kl. 19, sidste omgang er kl. 17
Oslo: Barerne er lukket
Berlin: Barerne er lukket. Til pinse vil man tillade udendørsservering. London: Barerne er lukket indendørs, men om 4 dage åbner de igen. Der bliver et krav om at man skal sidde ned for at bestille.
Paris: Barerne er lukket og der er udgangsforbud fra kl. 19. Men om en uge rykker udgangsforbuddet til kl. 21, og barer får lov at servere udendørs.
May 13, 2021 • 6 tweets • 4 min read
Desværre bliver data ofte misforstået & især indenfor vacciner virker det til at misinformation trives

Der døde 55.232 i DK i 2018

Af den andel der pt er vaccineret i DK, vil man forvente at 3.620 vil dø indenfor 30 dage & 7.241 indenfor 60 dage af andre årsager end vaccination Her eksempler med lande som har vaccineret mange: Israel, UK, USA (Norden med til sammenligning)
May 12, 2021 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Noget tyder på at den nye indiske variant (=B.1.617) er mere smitsom end B.117. Har prøvet at lave en graf der viser hvorfor det potentielt er vigtigt i forhold til hvornår epidemien dør helt ud i DK.
Pt er R0 værdien for B.1.617 rent gætværk Image R0 for seasonal flu: 1.3
bmcinfectdis.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.11…
R0 for "normal" SARS-CoV-2 is ~2.5
thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/…
Ref for R0 = 4,3 med B.117 som dominerende variant
Mar 10, 2021 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Hvor mange får senfølger?
Stadig et svært spørgsmål at få svar på, men studiet fra King's College London er nu publiceret
➡️13.3% med symptomer ≥28 dage
➡️4.5% ≥8 uger
➡️2.3% ≥12 uger
Risiko for senfølger korrelerer med alder, BMI og at være kvinde
1/4
 nature.com/articles/s4159… Vi kom med et ikke helt skæv analyse og bud sidste år i videnskab.dk med et gæt på 1-2% efter 3 måneder
"Flere studier tyder på, at minimum 1-2 procent af de smittede vil ende med senfølger efter en COVID-19-infektion"
2/4
 videnskab.dk/forskerzonen/k…
Mar 9, 2021 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
Here are cases in Denmark, Sweden, Norway, and Finland for the last 3 weeks, adjusted to Denmark's population size
1/x If one also tries to adjust for both population size & number of tests performed in DK (DK tests a lot), using SSI's correction factor of [test ratio]^0.7, it looks like this 👇
2/x
Mar 8, 2021 • 9 tweets • 4 min read
A couple of interesting papers on 25-Hydroxyvitamin D Level and link to reduction in Infections
1/x
 jamanetwork.com/journals/jamas… Image "Vitamin D levels may constitute a modifiable risk factor for postoperative nosocomial infections in hepatobiliary surgery patients."
2/x
 journals.plos.org/plosone/articl… Image
Mar 6, 2021 • 12 tweets • 5 min read
Det bliver ved med at komme rigtig gode nyheder ud omkring vaccinerne - det lover godt for fremtiden

Effekten der er observeret i de kliniske studier er nu blevet bekræftet efter udrulningen i mange lande. Især data fra Israel, England, Scotland og Danmark ser imponerende ud
1/x Flere datapunkter tyder nu på at Astra-Zeneca/Oxford er ligeså god eller bedre end Pfizer/BioNTech og Moderna på flere parametre.
economist.com/graphic-detail…
2/x
Mar 6, 2021 • 12 tweets • 4 min read
For the first time since the beginning of the pandemic, Denmark now have the fewest cases of the Nordic countries below
1/x Denmark is testing the most
2/x
Jan 29, 2021 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
A list of restrictions introduced in Sweden

-Restriction on restaurants (max 4)
-high schools closed
-Restrictions on shops
-Masks recommended in public transportation
-Border control to Denmark
-No alcohol after 8pm
-Restrictions on gatherings (max 8)

nyheder.tv2.dk/udland/2020-12… From mid-November
Jan 28, 2021 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
Population Fatality Rate (PFR) comparison of COVID-19 vs seasonal influenza (Average flu season)

PFR is how many deaths out of the entire country population

Current Covid-19 deaths vs historic flu deaths
1/x Image Population Fatality Rate (PFR) comparison of COVID-19 vs seasonal influenza (worst flu season in recent years)
2/x Image
Jan 26, 2021 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Comparing the Covid-19 deaths to influenza deaths in Sweden

Sweden have had between 300-1100 flu deaths per year since 2015
1/x Sweden now have 11,247 Covid-19 deaths and around 15% infected

Covid-19 is thus already 10x worse than the worst flu season in recent years (2017-18) and 37x worse than the mildest (2015-16)
Graph
@Marco_Piani

2/x
Jan 26, 2021 • 12 tweets • 6 min read
Compilation on recent assessments from various sources using different models to provide an early estimates on relative and current reproductive number & transmissibility of the new B.1.1.7 Variant of Concern
1/x @Peter_R_Hansen B.1.1.7 relative reproductive number ≈ 1.43 times larger. (generation time 4.7) thus 43% more infectious

Estimation for 1 day = 1.08 [CI 1.07-1.09] (8% pr day)

Estimation for 7 days 1.71
2/x