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Martin Juhl Profile picture
Martin Juhl
@MartinJuhl2
PhD, Drug Development, Diploma in Pharmaceutical Medicine (ECPM). Studied @ Uni of Copenhagen, UIUC, DTU, Harvard, @FulbrightPrgrm. Opinions my own
Raven Profile picture 1 subscribed
Jan 20 • 43 tweets • 14 min read
Some suggested excess mortality is due to COVID-19 vaccination rollout but forgot to look at C-19 deaths

📈 Plot for each country feature:
🟠 Excess Mortality
🔴 C-19 Deaths
⚪️ Vaccination

COVID-19 deaths correlate much more closely with excess deaths than vaccination Image Downloaded and used @OurWorldInData Full data (CSV)

📈 Analysis (2020-2023): Excess Mortality, COVID-19 Deaths, and Vaccinations in Australia

🔍 Key Correlations:
- COVID-19 Deaths vs Excess Mortality: 0.68
- Vaccinations vs Excess Mortality: -0.16 bit.ly/3Snv7Hg
Image
Jul 8, 2022 • 10 tweets • 5 min read
Det er skræmmende hvordan misinformation for lov at trives og delt vidt og bredt.

Her eksemplificeret i et meget delt debat-indlæg fra Berlingske.

Endda fra personer der burde vide bedre og være mere nysgerrige i at undersøge hvor valide de delte data er. Image Danmark og Sverige har IKKE klaret sig ens mht overdødelighed, hvilket nedenstående graf tydeligt viser.
fra @OurWorldInData
ourworldindata.org/explorers/coro… Image
Sep 7, 2021 • 12 tweets • 5 min read
Impressive new Vaccine Effectiveness Results from Denmark

Infection (Delta)
➡️Pfizer-BioNTech: 84.6% (83.8-85.3)
➡️Moderna: 88.9% (86.6-90.9)

Hospitalization (Delta)
➡️Pfizer-BioNTech: 94.4% (92.5-95.8)
➡️Moderna: 100% (0-100)

@sailorrooscout

files.ssi.dk/covid19/gennem… Deaths (incl US for comparison)
Aug 5, 2021 • 26 tweets • 11 min read
Jeg er også stor fortaler for en ordentlig og saglig debat.

Her kommer lidt nuancering og input til @StabellBenn LinkedIn opslag, der indeholder 6 punkter. Punkt 1: sikkerhed
Ny gennemgang af @SSTSundhed bekræfter sikkerheden ved vaccination af børn.

Sikkerhedsovervågning fra knap 6 mill vaccinerede børn i USA, gør, at vi er blevet yderligere betrygget af sikkerheden ved at anvende mRNA-vacciner til børn.
sst.dk/da/nyheder/202…
Aug 5, 2021 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Høj tilslutning til vaccinerne i Danmark, stærkt 💪 - spændende hvor den lander, pt er der 18% der har mulighed for at blive vaccineret, som ikke har benyttet sig af muligheden.
1/4
 sst.dk/-/media/Udgive… Her er andelen som er vaccineret baseret på alder.
2/4
Jul 22, 2021 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
The good & the bad news

➡️Bad news first: early data from Israel indicates that vaccine efficacy in preventing infection & symptomatic disease (mainly Pfizer-BioNTech) goes from 75-79% to 16% within 4 months against the Delta variant ➡️The good news is that the vaccines maintain 88-91% protection against hospitalizations & severe over 4 months against the Delta variant
Jun 30, 2021 • 13 tweets • 4 min read
Comparison of some of the countries with a current surge Here are cases on log scale
May 28, 2021 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
There has been a lot of focus on death toll in Brazil and India, but surprisingly little regarding Peru.

Peru now have excess deaths closing in on 0.6% of the entire population, which is 1 out of every 166 person

Excess deaths now account for 143% compared to previous years Here are a visual of specific countries
May 26, 2021 • 11 tweets • 5 min read
Svært at forstå dette nej

Følgende risiko for indlæggelse & intensiv-indl ved smitte inklusiv 2x mørketal

Indlæggelse
10-19=0,24% (1:400)
20-29=0,68% (1:150)

Intensiv
10-19=0,02% (1:5000)
20-29=0,04% (1:2800)

mRNA vaccine anafylaksi 2-5 pr 1 mill

1/x
 politiken.dk/forbrugogliv/s… Oversigt over data

Link til SST
sst.dk/da/corona/stat…
mRNA vaccine CDC anafylaksi-risiko 2-5 pr 1 million
cdc.gov/coronavirus/20…
Serologi-studie i Mar/Apr fandt 325-375000 smittede
ssi.dk/aktuelt/nyhede…
Antal påviste i Apr 240000
worldometers.info/coronavirus/co…
Mørketal 1,5
2/x Image
May 14, 2021 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
København: Barerne lukker kl. 23. Man skal dog vise coronapas
Stockholm: Lukketid kl. 20.30
Helsingfors: Lukketid kl. 19, sidste omgang er kl. 17
Oslo: Barerne er lukket
Berlin: Barerne er lukket. Til pinse vil man tillade udendørsservering. London: Barerne er lukket indendørs, men om 4 dage åbner de igen. Der bliver et krav om at man skal sidde ned for at bestille.
Paris: Barerne er lukket og der er udgangsforbud fra kl. 19. Men om en uge rykker udgangsforbuddet til kl. 21, og barer får lov at servere udendørs.
May 13, 2021 • 6 tweets • 4 min read
Desværre bliver data ofte misforstået & især indenfor vacciner virker det til at misinformation trives

Der døde 55.232 i DK i 2018

Af den andel der pt er vaccineret i DK, vil man forvente at 3.620 vil dø indenfor 30 dage & 7.241 indenfor 60 dage af andre årsager end vaccination Her eksempler med lande som har vaccineret mange: Israel, UK, USA (Norden med til sammenligning)
May 12, 2021 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Noget tyder på at den nye indiske variant (=B.1.617) er mere smitsom end B.117. Har prøvet at lave en graf der viser hvorfor det potentielt er vigtigt i forhold til hvornår epidemien dør helt ud i DK.
Pt er R0 værdien for B.1.617 rent gætværk Image R0 for seasonal flu: 1.3
bmcinfectdis.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.11…
R0 for "normal" SARS-CoV-2 is ~2.5
thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/…
Ref for R0 = 4,3 med B.117 som dominerende variant
Mar 10, 2021 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Hvor mange får senfølger?
Stadig et svært spørgsmål at få svar på, men studiet fra King's College London er nu publiceret
➡️13.3% med symptomer ≥28 dage
➡️4.5% ≥8 uger
➡️2.3% ≥12 uger
Risiko for senfølger korrelerer med alder, BMI og at være kvinde
1/4
 nature.com/articles/s4159… Vi kom med et ikke helt skæv analyse og bud sidste år i videnskab.dk med et gæt på 1-2% efter 3 måneder
"Flere studier tyder på, at minimum 1-2 procent af de smittede vil ende med senfølger efter en COVID-19-infektion"
2/4
 videnskab.dk/forskerzonen/k…
Mar 9, 2021 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
Here are cases in Denmark, Sweden, Norway, and Finland for the last 3 weeks, adjusted to Denmark's population size
1/x If one also tries to adjust for both population size & number of tests performed in DK (DK tests a lot), using SSI's correction factor of [test ratio]^0.7, it looks like this 👇
2/x
Mar 8, 2021 • 9 tweets • 4 min read
A couple of interesting papers on 25-Hydroxyvitamin D Level and link to reduction in Infections
1/x
 jamanetwork.com/journals/jamas… Image "Vitamin D levels may constitute a modifiable risk factor for postoperative nosocomial infections in hepatobiliary surgery patients."
2/x
 journals.plos.org/plosone/articl… Image
Mar 6, 2021 • 12 tweets • 5 min read
Det bliver ved med at komme rigtig gode nyheder ud omkring vaccinerne - det lover godt for fremtiden

Effekten der er observeret i de kliniske studier er nu blevet bekræftet efter udrulningen i mange lande. Især data fra Israel, England, Scotland og Danmark ser imponerende ud
1/x Flere datapunkter tyder nu på at Astra-Zeneca/Oxford er ligeså god eller bedre end Pfizer/BioNTech og Moderna på flere parametre.
economist.com/graphic-detail…
2/x
Mar 6, 2021 • 12 tweets • 4 min read
For the first time since the beginning of the pandemic, Denmark now have the fewest cases of the Nordic countries below
1/x Denmark is testing the most
2/x
Jan 29, 2021 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
A list of restrictions introduced in Sweden

-Restriction on restaurants (max 4)
-high schools closed
-Restrictions on shops
-Masks recommended in public transportation
-Border control to Denmark
-No alcohol after 8pm
-Restrictions on gatherings (max 8)

nyheder.tv2.dk/udland/2020-12… From mid-November
Jan 28, 2021 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
Population Fatality Rate (PFR) comparison of COVID-19 vs seasonal influenza (Average flu season)

PFR is how many deaths out of the entire country population

Current Covid-19 deaths vs historic flu deaths
1/x Image Population Fatality Rate (PFR) comparison of COVID-19 vs seasonal influenza (worst flu season in recent years)
2/x Image
Jan 26, 2021 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Comparing the Covid-19 deaths to influenza deaths in Sweden

Sweden have had between 300-1100 flu deaths per year since 2015
1/x Sweden now have 11,247 Covid-19 deaths and around 15% infected

Covid-19 is thus already 10x worse than the worst flu season in recent years (2017-18) and 37x worse than the mildest (2015-16)
Graph
@Marco_Piani

2/x
Jan 26, 2021 • 12 tweets • 6 min read
Compilation on recent assessments from various sources using different models to provide an early estimates on relative and current reproductive number & transmissibility of the new B.1.1.7 Variant of Concern
1/x @Peter_R_Hansen B.1.1.7 relative reproductive number ≈ 1.43 times larger. (generation time 4.7) thus 43% more infectious

Estimation for 1 day = 1.08 [CI 1.07-1.09] (8% pr day)

Estimation for 7 days 1.71
2/x