Share this page!

Enter URL or ID to Unroll

You can paste full URL like: https://x.com/threadreaderapp/status/1644127596119195649
or just the ID like: 1644127596119195649

How to get URL link on X (Twitter) App

  1. On the Twitter thread, click on or icon on the bottom
  2. Click again on or Share Via icon
  3. Click on Copy Link to Tweet
  4. Paste it above and click "Unroll Thread"!
  5. More info at Twitter Help
Martin Kragh Profile picture
Martin Kragh
@MartinKragh1
Eastern Europe, Russia. Deputy Director of SCEEUS, @UIsweden. Associate Professor at IRES, Uppsala University.
Feb 26 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
Bosnia-Hercegovina at risk of turmoil. A 🧵

Dodik, the leader of Republika Srpska (RS), has threatened that the country’s Serb entity will secede. Vucic, the leader of Serbia, has called for unification of ‘all Serbs’. Meanwhile, Dodik and Vucic are supported by Russia. This follows a court verdict where Dodik was sentenced to one year in prison and banned from holding the presidential post for 6 years. The parliament of RS claims the verdict contradicts the constitution & urged all prosecutors and judges who participated in the trial against…
Feb 13 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
A few reflections on the Trump-Putin talk.

1. Russia has failed to achieve its objectives, stated in December 2021: Ukraine remains independent. It is militarily stronger. NATO has expanded. 2. Putin has caused tremendous damage. As a failing empire, Russia will remain prone to violence against the outside world. But Moscow is in no position to impose any new security order in Europe, similar to 1945.
Jan 8 • 12 tweets • 2 min read
The Trump presidency is not yet inaugurated. He seems, however, poised to increase risks for nuclear weapons build-up and proliferation. A US president threatening long-standing allies is unheard of, and it will influence friends and foes alike.

🧵 In Russia, Putin has already made clear his readiness for brinkmanship. Since 2014, he has repeatedly reminded and threatened the world with nuclear retaliation. Russia is developing new missiles, and has upgraded its existing arsenals.
Dec 17, 2023 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
🧵A few years ago I started research on the prevalence of conspiracy theories in Russian security and policy circles. It turns out things are perhaps more extreme than we thought. Igor Ananskikh, a Duma MP, recently published an article which is the nuttiest 💩I ever read. His first claim is that the world is governed by a small cult, a world government, on behalf of an alien reptilian civilisation. This was apparently revealed by a US case officer. To hand over Earth to the aliens, the cult first needs to destroy Russia.
Dec 9, 2023 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
🧵MFA spox Maria Zakharova states Russian conditions for ‘peace’ in Ukraine:

- West stops military support to Ukraine
- West & Ukraine accepts ‘new territorial realities’
- Ukraine ceases all military activities
- Ukraine is fully ‘demilitarised’ and ‘de-nazified’
… - Military of Ukraine is removed from ‘Russian territory’
- Ukraine accepts status as non-aligned
- Status of Russian language is guaranteed

This is quite some list of 💩demands. Stated just after Putin, meeting with Russian war criminals based in Donbas, confirmed he will
Jul 20, 2023 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
Russia’s escalation in the Black Sea, threatening to attack civilian cargos of grain, is extremely serious and a threat to global food security. Before the war, Ukrainian farmers fed around 400 million people. Here are a few things Western allies can consider: 1. Engage with countries in Latin America and Africa. Explain that the only European country threatening their well-being today is Russia. Offer tangible support. Nudge those sympathetic towards Russian narratives to alter their position.
Jul 10, 2023 • 6 tweets • 1 min read
Sweden’s membership in NATO is the last step in a change process overturning a Baltic security regime which has existed not since 1991, but since 1721. Before this, the Baltic Sea was a Swedish sea, Swedish peace reigned from the Gulf of Finland to Greifswald. Losing the Baltic… …provinces to Peter the Great changed the security logic of both Sweden and Russia. For Sweden, preserving the Baltic as an open sea was key, a ‘mare liberum’. For Russia, the policy was ‘mare clasum’, the principle that only military vessels of literal states are allowed to…
Sep 27, 2022 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
In the 90s, Yeltsin turned off the gas to Estonia, “to teach them a lesson in geopolitics”. Natural gas has been used by Moscow as a tool of influence and support for friendly neighbours, but also for intimidation. This history is the context of yesterday’s Nordstream attacks. We will know better soon what happened yesterday, but the general lesson is this: NS1 and NS2 were never just about business for the Kremlin. Russia already had its network of pipelines across Ukraine and Belarus, which btw are still working fine, since the 70s. As Yeltsin said…
Apr 14, 2021 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
Considering recent developments along the border of Ukraine, here are some findings from our paper on sanctions. Firstly, financial sanctions have had a strong effect on Russia's economy, where they were intended to impact. That is, on increasing interest rates. As a result, credit expansion is limited, and costs for servicing government debt have increased. It matters little that Russia has low debt, if costs of servicing that debt is more and more expensive.