Visiting Fellow @CSIS @CSISerep Europe,Russia,Eurasia program / Security and Defense issues / Formerly on&in MENA / Usual caveats
For @TheEconomist he called twice on Europeans to think Europe “in terms of geography”, not “institutions”.
First, a quick word on the Compass. 
For the record, the summit was convened by #Scholz, after a series of comments by #Macron signaling a change of approach vav the war in 🇺🇦, that garnered a lot of support across Europe but also exposed a rift with Berlin (cf. @ClaudMajor @camille_grand👇) 
The “Weimar Triangle” dates back to 1991, as a post-Cold war signal of friendship between 3 states with complicated histories and with a task to facilitate 🇵🇱 European reintegration. It was launched by then Foreign Min Dietrich Genscher, Roland Dumas and Krzysztof Skubiszewski👇 
1st on the format, the 🇪🇺-ASEAN ministerial gather the member states of both organizations, who elevated their relationship to Strategic Partnership in 2020.
He reiterated what he told French audience recently, that ““It is impossible, for all us, to see 🇷🇺 winning this war.”
First, what are European interests in the region?
First a quick word on the conference itself. It was instituted in 1993. In the very Presidential French system, this is an important event to guide national foreign policy. This year, the guest of honor is Ukrainian Foreign Minister @DmytroKuleba 2/27
International coverage (and disinformation campaigns) of the coup have tended to portray French interest in Niger as mainly driven by its access to the country’s natural resources.
1⃣ Why is it historic?
For the record, the famous 2% target (and 20% on major equipment and R&D), aka Defense Investment Pledge, was agreed at the 2014 🏴summit. It was the vehicle found to progress towards a better burden sharing among allies. The target was to be met by 2024, hence renewal this year. 
As President @ZelenskyyUA is set to attend the #VilniusNATOSummit, he has repeatedly voiced Ukrainian demands: 
In Feb, @JamesSiebens & I warned that “it would be unsafe and unwise to wager that Ankara’s position will soften after 🇹🇷 general elections in May. NATO members’ efforts to ignore the issue for the sake of avoiding divisions among allies are pointless.”
The Pdt started by highlighting European unity, pushing back the alleged division between “Western/old” and “Eastern/new” Europe, which would “perpetuate the artificial boundary created by the USSR.” With a reference to Kundera, he said that Europe should not be “kidnapped twice”
This forum was instigated by 🇫🇷 during its presidency of the EU Council in Feb 22, in line with France’s efforts (along with others, 🇳🇱🇩🇪) to raise the EU’s profile in a region that is vital to its interests (40% of EU imports) and that faces many common challenges.
The proposed Act in Support of Ammunition Production expands on the last of the 3 tracks of the EU’s plan to deliver Ukraine 1 million rounds of ammunition over 12 months. Having the industrial capacity to support this effort is indeed the key precondition
Each of these summits has its own bilateral rationale. But they are also illustrative of 🇫🇷 multilayered approach of collective security alongside #NATO and the🇪🇺 #EU, and of President Macron’s willingness to reconnect the dots between main Western Europe capitals. 2/16
First on Monday with @DrJaishankar & @ABZayed, for a trilateral dialogue upgraded to Ministerial level for the 1st time. The 3 countries aspire to be key security stakeholders and ‘balancing powers’ for the #IndianOcean
The address was chiefly directed at the so-called “Global South”, in an attempt to mobilize against 🇷🇺 war on 🇺🇦 and to instill a counter-narrative to that of powers seeking to contest the international order: