Mathieu Droin Profile picture
Visiting Fellow @CSIS @CSISerep Europe, Russia, Eurasia program / Security and Defense issues / Formerly on & in MENA / Stéphanois / Usual caveats
Jul 6 8 tweets 4 min read
The NATO summit in Washington is about to kick in.
Over the past few days and weeks, there's been a tsunami of briefs, articles, and events that are worth your time.
But since your time is valuable, here is a selection of recommended reads to grasp the stakes of this summit 👇1/8 Image 1⃣ To get the institutional view, this @ForeignAffairs piece by NATO SG Stoltenberg.
As usual with the SecGen, he takes some liberties with the consensus among allies and glosses over some structural challenges, but interesting to have the boss' vision.
foreignaffairs.com/europe/what-na…
May 31 13 tweets 4 min read
Exactly one year ago, #Macron gave one of his most important speech on 🇫🇷 European policy, at @GLOBSEC.

It heralded a shift on 🇺🇦🇷🇺 and a clear effort to woo central & eastern Europeans.

The speech raised both eyebrows and expectations.

Has it been followed through? 🧵1/12 Image Below is a 🧵with the main takeaways of the speech.
Some highlights include:
▶️Clear support for Ukraine's accession to #NATO
▶️Acknowledgement of "inconsistencies" vav 🇷🇺
▶️Need to shape a stronger "European pillar of NATO"
▶️Need to listen CEE countries
May 29 14 tweets 5 min read
On the occasion of the State Visit, a 🇫🇷🇩🇪security & defense council has been held.
Its conclusions are a good indicator of the strengths and limitations of the bilat cooperation. They revolve around 3 main issues: 🇺🇦, European security, and major joint projects.
Main takeaways🧵 Image First a quick word on this Security &Defense Council (CFADS per its French acronym).
It was instituted in 1988, for the 25th anniversary of the Elysee Treaty, and brings together heads of State, MoD, MFA & chiefs of Staff.
It has lacked momentum these past few years.
May 2 12 tweets 3 min read
One element that stands out of Macron’s recent statements (Sorbonne, @TheEconomist itvw) is his new mental map of Europe’s political geography.
Shaped by the changing security environment, this new vision partly explains 🇫🇷 shifts vav 🇷🇺, enlargement, security discussions.
A🧵1/ Image For @TheEconomist he called twice on Europeans to think Europe “in terms of geography”, not “institutions”.
In Sorbonne, he had this interesting claim that "we have begun to rethink our geography within the limits of our neighborhood.”
What are the boundaries, then? 2/
Apr 4 13 tweets 3 min read
This op-ed by 🇫🇷🇩🇪🇵🇱 Foreign Ministers is significant in many respects, 1st for the content, but also for the format, and for what it says of the dynamics within the “Weimar triangle”.
Here are the points that stand out and some takeaways 🧵1/14
politico.eu/article/german… On the substance, first.
On the occasion of the 75th anniversary of NATO, the piece is both a celebration of the success of the transatlantic alliance and a call to rebalance the transatlantic relationship.
It calls on Europeans “to take more responsibility for Europe’s defense”
Mar 19 24 tweets 7 min read
Two years ago, the European Union🇪🇺 adopted its first roadmap for security and defense: the Strategic Compass.

The @EEAS has just released the 2nd annual report on its implementation.

Overall appraisal: a glass half-full.

A closer look in this thread🧵 1/ Image First, a quick word on the Compass.
It was adopted during the 🇫🇷 Pdcy of the EU Council, a month after the war in 🇺🇦 started, which implied a fast-tracked recalibration of the text.
But it was actually a 🇩🇪 idea, triggered by another shock for the EU, the Trump administration.
Mar 15 11 tweets 3 min read
The “Weimar Triangle” reunited at the highest level, in a good display of cohesion and responsibility, if not yet genuine unity or shared ambition.
The 3 leaders have put to the fore their common denominators, leaving the most divisive issues aside.
Takeaways & comments🧵1/11 Image For the record, the summit was convened by #Scholz, after a series of comments by #Macron signaling a change of approach vav the war in 🇺🇦, that garnered a lot of support across Europe but also exposed a rift with Berlin (cf. @ClaudMajor @camille_grand👇)
open.spotify.com/episode/3P2n9Q…
Feb 12 14 tweets 3 min read
As 🇵🇱 PM Tusk visits 🇫🇷&🇩🇪, and as Foreign Ministers of the three countries meet in France, there seems to be a shared ambition of reviving the “Weimar Triangle”.
With unprecedented challenges facing Europe, this format has a crucial role to play, but a long way to go…
A 🧵1/15 Image The “Weimar Triangle” dates back to 1991, as a post-Cold war signal of friendship between 3 states with complicated histories and with a task to facilitate 🇵🇱 European reintegration. It was launched by then Foreign Min Dietrich Genscher, Roland Dumas and Krzysztof Skubiszewski👇 Image
Feb 2 14 tweets 4 min read
An important sequence for 🇪🇺 engagement with Indo-Pacific countries, as Brussels hosts back-to-back the:

- 3rd EU-IndoPacific Ministerial Forum
- 24th EU-ASEAN Ministerial meeting

What is expected from those meetings and what do they tell about EU’s role vàv the region?
A🧵1/12 Image 1st on the format, the 🇪🇺-ASEAN ministerial gather the member states of both organizations, who elevated their relationship to Strategic Partnership in 2020.
The 🇪🇺-IndoPac forum, initiated by 🇫🇷EU presidency in 22 brings together the EU27 and representatives of over 50 countries
Jan 30 7 tweets 2 min read
Important speech by Emmanuel Macron on European Defense, as he visits Sweden🇸🇪.

A clear call for Europeans to ramp up their whole defense effort and support for Ukraine🇺🇦, “at whatever cost” and “whatever🇺🇸 decisions”.

Main takeaways 🧵 1/7 Image He reiterated what he told French audience recently, that ““It is impossible, for all us, to see 🇷🇺 winning this war.”
This would mean "no more security architecture on our continent.” “What would be the future of Eastern Europe, of our friends in Central Asia, in the Caucasus?”
Dec 23, 2023 7 tweets 3 min read
⚠️#INFOX Neither 🇫🇷 nor other Europeans 🇪🇸🇮🇹 are "withdrawing" from US🇺🇸-led Operation Prosperity Guardian!
This is a misunderstanding of how the initiative operates.
Clarifications 👇🧵 1/7 As per the DoD statement, #ProsperityGuardian builds upon an existing US-led multinational force, the Combined Task Force 153 (CTF).
Some countries are joining this CTF and, in doing so, are brought under 🇺🇸 command.
Others are supporting the operation, without joining the CTF. Image
Dec 16, 2023 20 tweets 5 min read
What a week it’s been for 🇫🇷 frigate Languedoc in NW Indian Ocean!
Thwarting a Houthi attack by downing two drones, protecting a 🇳🇴 tanker under attack with 🇺🇸, before being brought under 🇪🇺 flag with #OperationAtalanta

But why are 🇫🇷&🇪🇺 in the area, and what are they doing?
A🧵 Image First, what are European interests in the region?
The Sea Line of Communication that links the Mediterranean with the Indo-Pacific, via the Suez Canal, the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden is a vital artery for European prosperity. It channels more than a third of 🇪🇺 external trade.
Aug 29, 2023 27 tweets 5 min read
The annual speech of 🇫🇷 President to Ambassadors is a key rendezvous for French diplomacy.
This year @EmmanuelMacron hinted at 4 priorities (1⃣Security & stability, 2⃣Independence, 3⃣Partnerships, 4⃣Influence) & made some important comments on 🇺🇦, 🇪🇺, 🇨🇳, 🇳🇪,🌍 among others.
A🧵 Image First a quick word on the conference itself. It was instituted in 1993. In the very Presidential French system, this is an important event to guide national foreign policy. This year, the guest of honor is Ukrainian Foreign Minister @DmytroKuleba 2/27
Aug 4, 2023 15 tweets 4 min read
Yes, uranium matters. But no, it is not the main reason why France cares about Niger🇳🇪.

Paris considered Niger as a linchpin for new types of partnerships with African countries – more equitable, transparent, and inclusive – which the coup abruptly halted.

A 🧵 1/15 Image International coverage (and disinformation campaigns) of the coup have tended to portray French interest in Niger as mainly driven by its access to the country’s natural resources.

Undeniably, it is an important factor, as Nigerien uranium accounts for 15% of French needs. 2/15
Jul 24, 2023 16 tweets 5 min read
🇫🇷 President Emmanuel Macron is on a historic tour to New Caledonia 🇳🇨, Vanuatu🇻🇺, & Papua New Guinea🇵🇬.
What does it say of France's strategic positioning in the region and what to expect from the tour?
🧵1/16 Image 1⃣ Why is it historic?
@EmmanuelMacron is the first French president to travel to non-🇫🇷 Pacific Islands Countries (Gen. de Gaulle went to 🇻🇺 in 1966, but it was not independent at the time).
A first, but somehow late, given French sovereign interests and stated ambitions. 2/16
Jul 12, 2023 14 tweets 5 min read
VILNIUS 🧵5 –Defense spending - Burden sharing

Allies have agreed today to convert the 2% of GDP from a target to a minimum.

What is the rationale?

Can it have a transformative effect?

Does it really contribute to a better burden sharing between both sides of the Atlantic? For the record, the famous 2% target (and 20% on major equipment and R&D), aka Defense Investment Pledge, was agreed at the 2014 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿summit. It was the vehicle found to progress towards a better burden sharing among allies. The target was to be met by 2024, hence renewal this year.
Jul 9, 2023 23 tweets 6 min read
VILNIUS 🧵3 – NATO’s support for Ukraine

What deliverables can we reasonably expect at the Vilnius Summit?

How to close the GAP (guarantees, assistance, path) from #NATO full-fledged membership?

What are the different positions among allies?

1/21 As President @ZelenskyyUA is set to attend the #VilniusNATOSummit, he has repeatedly voiced Ukrainian demands:
▶️a clear invitation to join NATO
▶️an accelerated process with a clear timeline
▶️security guarantees on the way to membership
2/21
Jul 8, 2023 18 tweets 5 min read
VILNIUS🧵2 – Sweden’s NATO accession vs Turkey’s obstruction

What are the odds of Turkey 🇹🇷 dropping its objection at the #VilniusNATOSummit?

What are the terms of the negotiations?

What happens if Sweden 🇸🇪 does join? If it doesn’t?

1/15 In Feb, @JamesSiebens & I warned that “it would be unsafe and unwise to wager that Ankara’s position will soften after 🇹🇷 general elections in May. NATO members’ efforts to ignore the issue for the sake of avoiding divisions among allies are pointless.”
foreignpolicy.com/2023/02/03/nat…
May 31, 2023 19 tweets 7 min read
“We have lost opportunities to listen to you”
Interesting effort by @EmmanuelMacron to rally Central and Eastern Europe audience around his vision for the future of Europe, in a landmark speech @GLOBSEC in Bratislava.
Some highlights 🧵 1/18 Credits: @benjaminhaddad The Pdt started by highlighting European unity, pushing back the alleged division between “Western/old” and “Eastern/new” Europe, which would “perpetuate the artificial boundary created by the USSR.” With a reference to Kundera, he said that Europe should not be “kidnapped twice”
May 12, 2023 13 tweets 5 min read
Tomorrow, Sweden hosts the second EU – Indo-Pacific forum, gathering ministers and high-level representatives from around 60 countries.
A great display of the EU’s convening power, but what is the agenda and potential outcomes of such a broad format? A 🧵 1/13
#EUIndoPacific Picture: European Union in ... This forum was instigated by 🇫🇷 during its presidency of the EU Council in Feb 22, in line with France’s efforts (along with others, 🇳🇱🇩🇪) to raise the EU’s profile in a region that is vital to its interests (40% of EU imports) and that faces many common challenges.
May 3, 2023 6 tweets 3 min read
New proposal from the 🇪🇺 Commission to support ammunition production.
Good news that:
- The horses are before the cart: to sustain ammo deliveries to 🇺🇦, Europeans need to sustain and ramp up their production
- The EU finally comes up with a fancy acronym: #ASAP 1/6 Image The proposed Act in Support of Ammunition Production expands on the last of the 3 tracks of the EU’s plan to deliver Ukraine 1 million rounds of ammunition over 12 months. Having the industrial capacity to support this effort is indeed the key precondition
Image