1/ Everyone wants to know if the bitcoin halving is priced in or not. IMO you can overthink this — of course cutting new supply in half is good for price. But if you need to delve into economic theory and the Efficient Markets Hypothesis on this, here goes. 2/ The Efficient Markets Hypothesis (EMH) says that the current price of bitcoin reflects all known information about the asset. The halving is well known, so today’s price reflects the fact that it will occur. I think this is broadly true.

1/ Skeptics like @andrewrsorkin wonder if speculation or utility is driving the price of bitcoin. The answer is both, and that’s just how it should be given bitcoin's stage of development.

A thread on speculation and bitcoin's growing real-world utility. 2/ I want you to imagine bitcoin in two settings. First, imagine it’s 2009 and bitcoin has just launched. Its creators talk about it one day being a store of value and medium of exchange. But right now, it’s neither.

1/ Lots of discussion out there about the early start of alts season, and some surprise that it’s happening given bitcoin is "only" up a few hundred percent from the lows.

Some thoughts. 2/ IMO the primary driver of alt season is a classic "wealth effect." Crypto natives make money in bitcoin, feel rich, and then look for more speculative assets to invest in.

1/ Lots of excitement and media coverage today around the ETH futures ETF launch. But so far, very little coverage of Ethereum (ETH) itself.

I think ETH is one of the most compelling investor opportunities in the world today, for five reasons. Reason 1: Ethereum is targeting the largest investment opportunity in crypto; bigger, even, than bitcoin (and I love bitcoin).

Ethereum is a new global computing platform that could rewire how the entire financial industry and much of the creative world works.

1/ NEW: Bitwise Spot Bitcoin ETF Update

NYSE today filed an amended application to list the Bitwise Bitcoin ETF Trust, complete with 40+ pages of new research from Bitwise.

The research addresses key concerns the SEC has raised around spot bitcoin ETFs.

Here’s why it matters — 2/ Given the Grayscale ruling, every spot bitcoin ETF filing is essentially in a waiting pattern hoping the SEC reacts to the court ruling by approving spot bitcoin ETFs.

That's the happy case. The question is, what happens if the SEC appeals the court decision?

1/ ETH is up 20% over the past few days, and crypto stocks are up 15%.

You might be wondering, why?

A helpful analogy to explain these moves is to think about a wildfire. 2/ Note: This is not investment advice.

These tweets reflect my personal assessment of the market, and not the views of Bitwise Asset Management. They are not predictions.

1/ Today we’re launching the Bitwise Blue-Chip NFT Index Fund, the world’s 1st NFT index fund.

NFTs are a historic movement, and just getting started.

The fund holds the 10 most valuable NFT collections: CryptoPunks, Bored Apes, Fidenza, etc.

A thread w more details — 2/ First, the holdings.

The index selects & weights NFTs based on “market cap” (using "floor prices"). It rebalances quarterly.

The goal: Own the iconic blue-chips of today, & add those that emerge in the future.

The index also has eligibility rules that exclude some NFTs.

1/ “Contango”: What is it? Does it really matter? How much impact can it have?

With a futures-based bitcoin ETFs launching tomorrow, a lot of people are asking about contango. It’s a unique & important part of all futures-based ETFs.

Let’s run through it.

Thread — 2/ Contango is how you describe a market where the futures price is higher than the spot price.

For instance, right now, the “front month” bitcoin futures contract - which expires on October 29 at 11am ET - is trading for $61,900. But the spot price of BTC is only $61,743.

1/ Today @NYSE filed for a Bitwise Bitcoin ETF!

It would hold actual BTC, *not* futures.

There’s already a separate BTC futures-based Bitwise ETF filing. But actual BTC is better.

And we believe it’s finally possible.

We're sharing 100+ pages of analysis on why.

Thread— 2/ First, why do we think BTC is better than futures?

A. Costs: It could cost over 5-10% per year to roll the futures (“contango”). Plus another 1-2% in fees.

B. Dilution: ETFs can't hold 100% BTC futures due to rules. Most aim for 85%. So, 15% is other stuff, even bonds!

...

1/12 All of my friends who are reflexively skeptical of NFTs should spend a bit of time thinking about Damien Hirst’s project, The Currency. 2/12 Hirst is, of course, one of the most successful and important artists of this generation.

A lot of his work stands at the intersection of art & money. For example, he created a human skull encrusted in diamonds. It sold for $100m. Art? Money?