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Mauro Gilli Profile picture
Mauro Gilli
@Mauro_Gilli
Professor of Military Strategy and Technology, Hertie School in Berlin. Great powers rivalry, future of war, tech competition. Born 🇮🇹, 9y 🇺🇸, 9y🇨🇭, 🇩🇪
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Aug 23 • 20 tweets • 5 min read
I have now read this article. Much more qualified people than me about China have already commented extensively, and you should read their takes. For example here

Aug 4 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
I finally managed to read this report by RUSI and OSC on Russian artillery production. Very strongly recommended.

static.opensourcecentre.org/assets/osc_ore…Image Among the many interesting details provided is this golden nugget, which supports existing understandings of the current limitations of Chinese machine tools. Image
Aug 1 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
With due respect, I would be very cautious before making such confident and sweeping predictions.

Over the past ten years, many have been urging Western countries to stop procuring stealth bombers and fighters and focus on "MALE" drones and on long-range missiles instead. The country whose force structure most resemble those prescriptions is Iran. We saw in June how well that force structure fared when facing an aerial attack: it seems quite clear those suggestions were definitively premature and unwarranted.
Jun 15 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
VHF radars (VHF stands for very high-frequency, but they are actually very low frequency, in the 30-300MHz) can detect stealth aircraft with bow-tie shape because the wavelength is going to be reflected by vertical fins. They have also very long range of detection, in general. However, the laws of physics dictate that to emit very low frequency signals (long wavelength) you need a large aperture antenna. And therefore, these systems are bulky and hence not very mobile. This is why Jugoslavia placed its early warning radars in Montenegro, and why
Apr 9 • 22 tweets • 4 min read
Data la malafede dimostrata, qui metto alcuni pensieri sparsi sul dilemma della sicurezza - che è diventato parte del dibattito politico sul programma di riarmo Europeo per via di Barbero, e ora tutti ne parlano. Punto primo: l’idea è tanto semplice quanto banale, ovvero la corsa agli armamenti sarebbe una sorta di profezia che si auto avvera. Gli Stati si armano per difendersi, ma così facendo, il riarmo crea paura nei vicini.
Mar 28 • 12 tweets • 3 min read
Yesterday I had the pleasure to give a presentation at the European Central Bank about European defense. The discussion was very interesting and enriching. Here are a couple of points that I made during & after the presentation: Image 1) European countries depend on the US for several “enablers” (in the language of economics: complementary goods), & it will be very demanding to replace the US. In this regard, the discussion about the kill-switch about the F-35 hides a much larger dependency
Feb 3 • 13 tweets • 3 min read
For those who wonder, this relatively unknown books helps understand what the US is trying to achieve with its tariffs. Of course, things are much more complicated, but the US, in virtue of the size and dynamism of its economy, has the "go-it-alone" power, as the author calls it Image Which means that it suffers much less than its partners in restricting trade with them. Such "inequality in pain", if you want, is a source of leverage for the US. The US has always used such leverage, as the author demonstrates in its book.
Jan 11 • 33 tweets • 9 min read
Very happy to see that the article "Weapons of the Weak: Technological Change, Guerrilla Firepower, and Counterinsurgency Outcomes" that @CostantinoPisch @aa_gilli and I have written is finally out in The Journal of Conflict Resolution, open access.

journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.117…Image Our articles starts from a simple but important question, namely: what explains counterinsurgency outcome (COIN)? This topic has received extensive attention over the past 20+ years, and existing contributions have enhanced our understanding of the dynamics .
Dec 18, 2024 • 13 tweets • 4 min read
This is a very interesting and detailed article. But on three parts, it should have contextualized better the points some analysts advanced. foreignpolicy.com/2024/12/16/sub… First, ocean transparency is something that nobody in the submarine field takes seriously. Sorry to be blunt, but this is how it is (I experienced it first hand when presenting a paper that challenges ocean transparency). Image
Image
Nov 26, 2024 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
At least for my small number, my thread about Elon's wrong take on the F-35 got some attention yesterday. Logging off today as I have work to do. Thanks to @Hertie_Security alumn @sochnyev who pointed to me Elon's comments, which followed discussions we have had on this topic. One general comment about the whole debate: When I teach about air defenses, stealth, radar (as well as the defense industry, weapons design, military operations, personnel policy) I always preface my lectures telling students that my goal is to make them informed citizens.
Nov 25, 2024 • 14 tweets • 4 min read
So many wrong takes here.

To start, what makes the F-35 or the B-21 expensive is the software and the electronics, not the pilot per se (of course, having the pilot makes it more expensive, but the primary source of cost overrun and time delays was the software). Image Which is importante because a reusable drone would need to get all that flashy electronics of an F-35, which is expensive (a Global Hawk costs in the 200m ball range, vis-à-vis 90 for an F-35).
Nov 23, 2024 • 14 tweets • 2 min read
Io davvero non ho parole. Il giornalismo Italiano, dopo aver dato attenzione e spazio ad un personaggio come Orsini, ora arriva addirittura a celebrarlo come uno che aveva previsto tutto. Tralasciamo l'errore metodologico del ragionamento di Formigli: per due anni e mezzo l'Occidente, proprio perché ascoltava le scemenze di Orsini sull'escalation nucleare, ha centellinato, posticipato, dilazionato o addirittura evitato la fornitura dei sistemi d'arma più preziosi
May 9, 2024 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
Non è alcuna verità storica. E' una visione del tutto parziale dei fatti. La seconda guerra mondiale in Europa è stata vinta in particolare in mare e nei cieli, domini in cui l'Unione Sovietica ha giocato un ruolo pressoché nullo. Possiamo riconoscere il sacrificio umano dell'Armata Rosa (alleata dei Nazisti fino al 1941), ma non cambia i fatti.
Apr 25, 2024 • 14 tweets • 4 min read
Orsini ha scritto un articolo delirante contro di me e @aa_gilli. L'articolo invece di rispondere a critiche fattuali che io e Andrea, in due thread diversi, abbiamo avanzato verso sue affermazioni prive di fondamento, si lancia in una invettiva verso di noi. Orsini cerca poi, maldestramente, di riproporre nuovamente la sua speculazione per cui i sistemi di difesa iraniani riuscirebbero ad abbattere un F-35 a 300-400km di distanza.
Apr 21, 2024 • 27 tweets • 5 min read
Mi è stato girato questo video del professor Orsini, secondo il quale la limitata risposta Iraniana all’attacco Iraniano è spiegata dal fatto che l’Iran ha sistemi di difesa antiaerea che possono “colpire gli aerei Israeliani a 300-400km di distanza, cioè è in grado di colpire... ... sia missili balistici di lunga gittata, sia i droni, sia i caccia di quinta generazione, cioè fondamentalmente gli F-35 americani, che sono i caccia più avanzati di cui Israele disponga.”

Non so neanche da dove iniziare. Se non fosse tutto deprimente, sarebbe divertente.
Apr 16, 2024 • 11 tweets • 3 min read
We live in an age in which nobody admits being wrong, so quite remarkable to read someone doing it. In this regard, I have a couple of points. First, the paradox about the debate about missile defense and the F-35 (regardless of which side you take) is that the unconventional thinkers soon created a new orthodoxy.
Feb 14, 2024 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Italy squandered 135 billion (yes, with a b) with its measures to promote growth during the pandemic. corriere.it/economia/finan… In particular through the "Bonus 110" which literally covered 100% of costs for refurbishing houses and left some chips for banks. One of the most regressive fiscal measures to date. And one which is likely going to restrict any fiscal leeway for the next years.
Feb 10, 2023 • 26 tweets • 6 min read
Last night I read the Seymour Hersch's piece. I am probably late to the party and I am sure much more competent people than me have already take a stab at it, but here I wrote down a couple of points about the part on the activation of underwater mines. Spoiler: it doesn't makes much sense.

If you haven't read Hersch's essay, here you can find it. To me it reads as a great Hollywood script, more than an accurate account of events. Below I explain why.
seymourhersh.substack.com/p/how-america-…
Dec 22, 2022 • 25 tweets • 9 min read
Over the past few months, I have written some threads on air defense, radar, stealth, and tactics aimed to delay radar detection. My new co-authored article summarizes those threads & discusses also other aspects such as how emerging technologies are strengthening air defenses. Precisely, advances in semiconductors, big data, and machine learning are enhancing of air defense technology to detect, track and identify targets - policy-makers and academics have instead largely seen emerging technologies as destabilizers of international stability.
Dec 3, 2022 • 20 tweets • 8 min read
Given the attention to the B21, here I have listed some articles and books that I found useful when I wanted to understand #stealth technology (or "low observable", LO). First and foremost, to understand stealth you need to have at least some general understanding of radar (and more generally, sensors). I wrote a thread some time ago with some references

Oct 17, 2022 • 20 tweets • 8 min read
Over the past months, air defense has received significant attention. In case you'd like to understand more about radar, jamming, decoys, surface-to-air missiles, and the like, here some sources I found very useful. These are the works I have used for a lecture in a class I teach at @CSS_Zurich of @ETH_en with @alexbollfrass, @HerzogSM and @NinaSilove.