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Mauro Gilli Profile picture
Mauro Gilli
@Mauro_Gilli
Senior Researcher @ETH_en. Great powers rivalry, future of war, tech competition, innovation & creativity. Born 🇮🇹, 9y 🇺🇸, 8y & counting🇨🇭
2 subscribers
Dec 18 • 13 tweets • 4 min read
This is a very interesting and detailed article. But on three parts, it should have contextualized better the points some analysts advanced. foreignpolicy.com/2024/12/16/sub… First, ocean transparency is something that nobody in the submarine field takes seriously. Sorry to be blunt, but this is how it is (I experienced it first hand when presenting a paper that challenges ocean transparency). Image
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Nov 26 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
At least for my small number, my thread about Elon's wrong take on the F-35 got some attention yesterday. Logging off today as I have work to do. Thanks to @Hertie_Security alumn @sochnyev who pointed to me Elon's comments, which followed discussions we have had on this topic. One general comment about the whole debate: When I teach about air defenses, stealth, radar (as well as the defense industry, weapons design, military operations, personnel policy) I always preface my lectures telling students that my goal is to make them informed citizens.
Nov 25 • 14 tweets • 4 min read
So many wrong takes here.

To start, what makes the F-35 or the B-21 expensive is the software and the electronics, not the pilot per se (of course, having the pilot makes it more expensive, but the primary source of cost overrun and time delays was the software). Image Which is importante because a reusable drone would need to get all that flashy electronics of an F-35, which is expensive (a Global Hawk costs in the 200m ball range, vis-à-vis 90 for an F-35).
Nov 23 • 14 tweets • 2 min read
Io davvero non ho parole. Il giornalismo Italiano, dopo aver dato attenzione e spazio ad un personaggio come Orsini, ora arriva addirittura a celebrarlo come uno che aveva previsto tutto. Tralasciamo l'errore metodologico del ragionamento di Formigli: per due anni e mezzo l'Occidente, proprio perché ascoltava le scemenze di Orsini sull'escalation nucleare, ha centellinato, posticipato, dilazionato o addirittura evitato la fornitura dei sistemi d'arma più preziosi
May 9 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
Non è alcuna verità storica. E' una visione del tutto parziale dei fatti. La seconda guerra mondiale in Europa è stata vinta in particolare in mare e nei cieli, domini in cui l'Unione Sovietica ha giocato un ruolo pressoché nullo. Possiamo riconoscere il sacrificio umano dell'Armata Rosa (alleata dei Nazisti fino al 1941), ma non cambia i fatti.
Apr 25 • 14 tweets • 4 min read
Orsini ha scritto un articolo delirante contro di me e @aa_gilli. L'articolo invece di rispondere a critiche fattuali che io e Andrea, in due thread diversi, abbiamo avanzato verso sue affermazioni prive di fondamento, si lancia in una invettiva verso di noi. Orsini cerca poi, maldestramente, di riproporre nuovamente la sua speculazione per cui i sistemi di difesa iraniani riuscirebbero ad abbattere un F-35 a 300-400km di distanza.
Apr 21 • 27 tweets • 5 min read
Mi è stato girato questo video del professor Orsini, secondo il quale la limitata risposta Iraniana all’attacco Iraniano è spiegata dal fatto che l’Iran ha sistemi di difesa antiaerea che possono “colpire gli aerei Israeliani a 300-400km di distanza, cioè è in grado di colpire... ... sia missili balistici di lunga gittata, sia i droni, sia i caccia di quinta generazione, cioè fondamentalmente gli F-35 americani, che sono i caccia più avanzati di cui Israele disponga.”

Non so neanche da dove iniziare. Se non fosse tutto deprimente, sarebbe divertente.
Apr 16 • 11 tweets • 3 min read
We live in an age in which nobody admits being wrong, so quite remarkable to read someone doing it. In this regard, I have a couple of points. First, the paradox about the debate about missile defense and the F-35 (regardless of which side you take) is that the unconventional thinkers soon created a new orthodoxy.
Feb 14 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Italy squandered 135 billion (yes, with a b) with its measures to promote growth during the pandemic. corriere.it/economia/finan… In particular through the "Bonus 110" which literally covered 100% of costs for refurbishing houses and left some chips for banks. One of the most regressive fiscal measures to date. And one which is likely going to restrict any fiscal leeway for the next years.
Feb 10, 2023 • 26 tweets • 6 min read
Last night I read the Seymour Hersch's piece. I am probably late to the party and I am sure much more competent people than me have already take a stab at it, but here I wrote down a couple of points about the part on the activation of underwater mines. Spoiler: it doesn't makes much sense.

If you haven't read Hersch's essay, here you can find it. To me it reads as a great Hollywood script, more than an accurate account of events. Below I explain why.
seymourhersh.substack.com/p/how-america-…
Dec 22, 2022 • 25 tweets • 9 min read
Over the past few months, I have written some threads on air defense, radar, stealth, and tactics aimed to delay radar detection. My new co-authored article summarizes those threads & discusses also other aspects such as how emerging technologies are strengthening air defenses. Precisely, advances in semiconductors, big data, and machine learning are enhancing of air defense technology to detect, track and identify targets - policy-makers and academics have instead largely seen emerging technologies as destabilizers of international stability.
Dec 3, 2022 • 20 tweets • 8 min read
Given the attention to the B21, here I have listed some articles and books that I found useful when I wanted to understand #stealth technology (or "low observable", LO). First and foremost, to understand stealth you need to have at least some general understanding of radar (and more generally, sensors). I wrote a thread some time ago with some references

Oct 17, 2022 • 20 tweets • 8 min read
Over the past months, air defense has received significant attention. In case you'd like to understand more about radar, jamming, decoys, surface-to-air missiles, and the like, here some sources I found very useful. These are the works I have used for a lecture in a class I teach at @CSS_Zurich of @ETH_en with @alexbollfrass, @HerzogSM and @NinaSilove.
Sep 24, 2022 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
Il mite avvocato pugliese è uno che ha chiuso in casa gli italiani a colpi di DPCM, trasformando le FAQ del ministero dell'interno in fonte di legge, lasciando gli italiani in balia dell'arbitrarietà delle forze dell'ordine, mentendo circa le raccomandazioni del CTS, per poi cercare di insabbiare il tutto secretando i verbali. Se ci fosse una nuova ondata di COVID e Meloni/Salvini facessero una frazione di queste cose, voi gridereste (giustamente) alla soppressione delle libertà costituzionali e della democrazia rappresentativa.
Aug 16, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Russia did not conduct suppression/destruction of enemy air defenses prior to launching the ground invasion of Ukraine (some say for doctrinal reasons, other say for capability limitations). Now on, the Ukrainians will be targeting Russian radars.
forbes.com/sites/davidaxe… HARM (high-speed anti-radiation missiles) are missiles that lock on a radar wave and home towards its source, with the goal of destroying a radar. They are "high-speed" because their goal is to get to a radar outpost before it relocates.
Jul 17, 2022 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
The first edition of Euro-Summer Workshop on Military Operations and Strategy at @Hertie_Security is over, let me thank again @mephenke and @Hg_Meijer for all the work they put behind it and for having made it possible. Our aim is to provide PhD students & recent PhDs based in🇪🇺with exposure to topics such as mil ops & strategy they have little opportunities to learn in their home institutions. So that they can contribute to Euro academic and policy debate on pressing defense and security issues
Jul 15, 2022 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Italy has a debt to GDP ratio of 150%. This means that minor increases in interest rates entails massive increase in cost of debt financing (today interest rates are above 3.3%, which means that Italy will have to spend about 5% of its GDP for interest rates). (to put in perspective, fiscal policies set by Maastricht agreements required countries to keep government deficit below 3% of GDP; with cost of debt at 5% of GDP, if government spending = government revenue, you are already at 5% deficit of GDP).
Sep 16, 2021 • 6 tweets • 1 min read
There seems to be some misunderstandings on submarines: nuclear-powered submarines are NOT quieter than diesel-electric. The opposite is true. A nuclear reactor cannot be shut down. Electric batteries can. Moreover, electric batteries do not generate machinery noise; a nuclear reactor does. There are variations in machinery noise (US subs are quieter than Chinese one) but the point stays: 🇸🇪🇩🇪🇯🇵 AIP subs are the quietest in the world
Mar 18, 2021 • 4 tweets • 3 min read
@divert_thruster I don't know the precise answer, some programs during WWII (e.g., B-29, Manhattan project and radar) required the applications of some of the principles of systems integration. In case you don't know it, this article provides an overview of WWII programs jstor.org/stable/3106953… @divert_thruster Definitively, between the end of the War and 1960, it became inevitable - with B-52, Skipjack, Polaris, air defense systems, ICBMs and space programs. On this, you will really like this book, fascinating: amazon.com/Systems-Expert…
Jul 19, 2020 • 17 tweets • 3 min read
For those who are interested in understanding what is happening with Italy and what is the problem with the European Union, here I have put down some scattered thoughts. To start, Italy is a kleptocracy, where key insiders have huge benefits, while outsiders struggles to get the (small) leftovers.