Re-reading after many years: John Mearsheimer had been predicting a Russian invasion of Ukraine as much as 30 years ago whereas Huntington threw open scorn upon the idea and his civilizationist model of how the world works instead foresaw a Ukrainian civil war between east and west:

It'd be difficult for Iran to develop or acquire defense systems or aircraft to give strategic parity with Israel, which does not just have access to Western technology but mandated laws in Congress committing the U.S. government to maintain its qualitative military superiority. Theoretically Iran could acquire Russian anti-air defense systems and aircraft and there have been rumors of this. But this would be expensive, likely still not give it parity, and would also require a close and lasting strategic partnership with Russia that is highly unlikely.

Saudi Arabia wants a security guarantee from U.S. of type Israel enjoys to guarantee its sovereignty. But the situations are not comparable because Israel still does a lot of heavy lifting on its own, and also built emotional connection with at least one generation of Americans. Saudi Arabia is asking for a security umbrella rather than to be armed to fight on its own, but also there is no constituency in America that is so emotionally invested in its wellbeing. As such I see such a guarantee as an illusory objective and am surprised to keep hearing it.

Reading: Interesting reflection of how the car-based urban design of modern Saudi Arabia helped depoliticize society by eliminating public space and forcing people on the road all the time. Reminds me of most of the U.S. as well. cc @sharghzadeh

One thing I have noticed from talking to Pakistanis lately is how recent events have disillusioned people about the ideology of Pakistan. The army was the standard-bearer of this ideology but now many feel it was like a big hoax that had been played on them for decades. The idea in sum was that Pakistan had to be created so that Muslims could be free; but the entire project seems to have been for benefit of a small group of elites and remains that way to this day. It was a contentious idea that Muslims wouldn't have been free in India anyways.

🚨 🚨 The Intercept has obtained leaked documents from Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) disproving a major plank in the current legal case against former PM Imran Khan who is on trial for mishandling confidential documents: theintercept.com/2023/12/18/pak… Khan is alleged to have compromised Pakistan’s encryption systems by mishandling a copy of a classified cipher document and faces a possible death sentence if treason charges are applied. However the ISI itself determined that no such harm could have been caused by his actions.

🚨 The Intercept obtained leaked Indian Ministry of External Affairs documents from this April planning a “crackdown scheme” on diaspora Sikh activists. The documents list targeted groups and people, including Hardeep Singh Nijjar who was killed this June: theintercept.com/2023/12/10/ind… The confidential April 2023 documents were distributed to consulates across N. America and ordered cooperation with Indian intel on a “sophisticated crackdown scheme” on diaspora Sikhs and “concrete measures” on named persons. Nijjar was killed in June: theintercept.com/2023/12/10/ind…

Reading: The origins of the Bhakti movement as a sort of monotheistic Hinduism arising from the encounter between Islam and Hinduism.

🚨 The Intercept has obtained a leaked copy of a secret Pakistani government cable at the center of a
political crisis for the past year over Imran Khan. The cipher shows State Dept. officials using threats and promises to encourage Khan's removal: theintercept.com/2023/08/09/imr… The confidential cipher document has been alleged by Khan to contain proof that the U.S. government colluded with the Pakistani miltary to remove him from office. The cable was leaked to The Intercept and we are publishing it in full for the first time here.

Looking at modern histories of India and China one can see their leaders were wise to wait until they built their economic confidence before developing aggressive and bellicose nationalisms. Many other countries in West Asia became bellicose first and drove themselves into ruin. A decade ago the official slogan of the CCP was "China's peaceful rise." Rather than a profound sentiment it was wise tactical positioning to bide time before the score-settling started. India is also now getting prepared for this stage though it still faces many challenges.

Going to share some passages from A Stranger in Your Own City by Iraqi journalist Ghaith Abdul-Ahad: How the politicization of religious identity was unleashed by the war. Sunnis were left out of sorts by this because as the majority they traditionally identified with the state or their town or region rather than sect:

Reading: Alexander the Great early fail attempt to abolish racism: