Admiral Vladimir Sokolov is commander of the Black Sea Fleet. He is considered by his peers to be battle-tested and highly competent. But several recent defeats show how he's lost the initiative and is hampered by systemic challenges and probably failure of imagination. 1/10 In 2016, Sokolov was the commander of the Northern Fleet detachment that conducted operations off the coast of Syria. The detachment included the Admiral Kuznetsov and Peter the Great. 2/10

Really good report by @Justin_Br0nk. On Russian SEAD/DEAD: The VKS was only able to do it effectively when it was able to do a long ISR soak prior to the war. Consistent, effective, dynamic targeting is not yet within their grasp. 1/8
cna.org/reports/2023/0… Would add that reading Russian journals published before the war reveals a lot of concern about their ability to conduct target mapping on-the-go and escort jamming. In fact, it’s not at all clear that effective escort jamming is even possible. 2/8

Some thoughts on Russian naval performance so far: the Moskva sinking has obscured the fact that the Russian Navy has performed fairly well in the conflict. Ukraine has laudably made an amphibious invasion of Odesa impossible, but that was always going to be extremely difficult anyway. Also, the battle for Snake Island appears to have been won by Russia, and the naval blockade has been wholly effective. They don't need to hold Odesa if they can conduct a "distant" blockade. Ukraine also reports

There's an interesting shift that's taken place in the maritime conflict in the Black Sea. The setup: The Russian Navy's basic goal is to blockade Ukraine's Black Sea coast. Ukraine of course seeks to break this blockade. The sinking of the Moskva has complicated this for Russia because Moskva's air defense systems were probably limiting Ukrainian freedom of action in the air. With Moskva gone, Ukraine now has more freedom to use TB2s to go after Russian naval forces. This has made Snake Island