Latest Twitter Threads by @MichaelGoodwell on Thread Reader App

Apr 18, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read

📉👀 Refinitiv Lipper: US equity funds suffered outflows of $12.57 billion, marking the biggest weekly net selling since Dec. 15.

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🔹 Growth funds saw weekly net selling of $6.91 billion, which was the biggest outflow since Jan 26.

🔹 Value funds reported sales continuing for a fifth week, amounting to a net $2.95 billion.

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Apr 13, 2022 • 6 tweets • 5 min read

🔥 Rabobank: Why ‘Bretton Woods 3’ Won’t Work

🔹 Nice narrative: but it’s just ‘mercantilism’

🔹 The opportunity to shift global trade flows away from USD to others is limited: fundamentally, neither CNY nor commodity currencies are set up to rival USD globally.

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Apr 10, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read

👀 "Contrary to popular perception, quantitative tightening (QT) is not the opposite of quantitative easing (QE)."

(via Morgan Stanley) "Finally, could the Fed’s plans for its balance sheet limit curve inversion? The yield curve can steepen if the Fed considers selling Treasuries (not our base case), ...

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Apr 3, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read

A bit worrying that food inflation coming from the conflict is likely to take months to fully feed through... Planting season has been disrupted so exports will be effected for much longer than most people expect.

Mar 14, 2022 • 9 tweets • 3 min read

💥 $3.3tln of option notional expires this Friday 18th, including over $2tln of SPX-linked options

(via GS)

🔹 30% of SPX OI expires on Friday

Feb 13, 2022 • 8 tweets • 4 min read

🤯 GS: Global Equities logged a massive $46.571bn worth of inflows last week

🔹 4th largest weekly inflow into Global Equities on record.

🔹 Equivalent to $9.3B worth of inflows per day.

🔹 Increased by +220% week over week.

🔹 Adjust for quarterly rebalances (inflows one week vs. outflows the next), this is the 2nd largest weekly inflow on record, after $58.087B, which happened this exact week in 2021 (2/10/2021).

Nov 7, 2021 • 4 tweets • 2 min read

🔥 Nomura: "Net CTA bond-only exposure across G10 Bond futures positions was as close to max short as we had seen over the past decade just a few weeks, but is now back to barely net short.

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- Net Exposure across G10 Bond futures positions in the CTA model was close to max short at just 0.4%-ile on a 10 year historical lookback.

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Nov 6, 2021 • 5 tweets • 2 min read

Some recent interesting Fed papers:

1. Fedwire Funds Service: Payments, Balances, and Available Liquidity

- Analyzing the universe of payments settled through the Fedwire Funds Service - the primary U.S. real-time gross settlement service.

federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/f… 2. Better the Devil You Know: Improved Forecasts from Imperfect Models

federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/b…

Nov 6, 2021 • 5 tweets • 1 min read

Some big name hedge funds who have suffered significant losses due to recent bond market volatility:

- Rokos Capital ($12.5 AUM) lost around 18% last month, now down >26% YTD.

- Alphadyne Asset Management is down 17% this year.

1/4 - Crispin Odey's European fund has lost nearly 50 percentage points of performance since early October, but is up around 59 per cent this year.

- ExodusPoint Capital($13.5bn AUM), has around half its risk in bonds, lost 2%.

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Nov 4, 2021 • 5 tweets • 2 min read

🔥 Goldman's Prime desk saw clients unwind risk on single names for a 3rd straight day, resulting in the largest $ de-grossing activity in 14 months - since Sept 2020.

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🔹 Shorts in the constituents of the Goldman "Most Shorted basket" collectively decreased -9.7% yesterday (-11.3% week/week).

🔹 29 of the 50 GS Most Short basket constituents saw net covering on the GS Prime book yesterday.

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Oct 12, 2021 • 6 tweets • 2 min read

This is actually a very interesting paper. Really good graphics/charts provided.

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https://twitter.com/MichaelGoodwell/status/1448005545781235714

Press conference word count

Bernanke vs Yellen vs Powell

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Jul 19, 2021 • 4 tweets • 1 min read

I'm watching:

- Crude oil: Down almost 3%, under $70. Lowest since early June.

- Copper: Down just over 1%. Has been rangebound for a month. I'm watching for a breakdown.

- AUDJPY: Down almost 1%. Lowest since late January.

- DAX: Down ~1.70%. Lowest since mid-May. EURUSD: Down ~0.3%. Lowest since early April. Series of lower highs and lower lows since late June. I'm looking for more downside. ECB meeting could potentially be the catalyst for that.

Jul 4, 2021 • 4 tweets • 2 min read

💵 50% of the S&P500’s 15% YTD gain was generated by just 29 stocks.

🔹 The top 5 S&P500 stocks still account for 22.4% of index (down from 24.5% peak in Aug’20).

(BofA)

https://twitter.com/MichaelGoodwell/status/1411826300185157633

The “known unknowns” for H2 2021 - according to BofA:

- China eases (bullish),

- US payrolls/labor market recovery weak (bullish + no taper + productivity “miracle” + “carry trades” carry-on);

- Bubble in stimulus = bubble in asset markets;

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Jun 30, 2021 • 9 tweets • 3 min read

🇺🇸 Indeed Job Seeker Survey June 2021: COVID Concerns and Financial Cushions Make Job Search Less Urgent

🔹 Many job seekers are in no rush to start work immediately

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🔹 Workers with jobs are much more likely to look for work passively. They’re open to getting a new job, but they’re not actively seeking one.

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Jun 29, 2021 • 5 tweets • 2 min read

🇺🇸 GS: "Businesses report the worst supplier delivery delays in decades and expect them to partially last through year-end."

Consumer spending vs disposable income

Jun 24, 2021 • 7 tweets • 3 min read

Some recent articles re. China:

🇨🇳 China’s debt-laden local governments struggle to secure refinancing as investors grow wary of default risks

🔹Bond issuance by LGFV) has slowed amid growing investor concern about defaults

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scmp.com/economy/china-… 🇨🇳 China’s PBOC Leads the Fed in Weaning the Economy Off Stimulus

🔹 The PBOC has already started curbing credit growth to tackle debt risks, although it’s doing so gradually to avoid stalling the economy’s still uncertain recovery.

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bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Jun 15, 2021 • 4 tweets • 1 min read

Copper down over 3% today.

There was a technical breakdown out of a basing pattern, but was there any fundamental reasons behind its drop?

https://twitter.com/MichaelGoodwell/status/1404617331339403267

Jun 7, 2021 • 6 tweets • 1 min read

I know some people aren't a fan of Bill Dudley, but I think he made some valid points in today's Bloomberg Opinion piece. He said that the Fed's new framework of allowing the economy to run hot will result in a quicker and more aggressive hiking cycle in order to cool things off. Is that not a valid point?

If things go the way the Fed want, inflation will rise over time, overshooting the 2% mark in order to reach the Fed's 2% average inflation target.

Jun 1, 2021 • 5 tweets • 2 min read

This speech by Brainard is worth a read. Some good insights.

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federalreserve.gov/newsevents/spe… On pent-up demand:

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May 31, 2021 • 4 tweets • 2 min read

✈️ Thread on US air travel:

🇺🇸 On Friday 28th May, TSA screened over 1.95m passengers, which was the highest number since the pandemic crushed air travel.

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https://twitter.com/MichaelGoodwell/status/1399377344733892610

🔹 However, as shown below, air travel numbers are only around 70% of pre-pandemic (2019) numbers.

🔹 This is very likely due to reduced international and/or business travel, which is yet to bounce back meaningfully.

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May 31, 2021 • 5 tweets • 2 min read

🇨🇳 Thread of China-related news:

China’s Supply Chain Frontliners Bear Brunt of Surging Costs

🔹 Beijing intensifies its efforts to rein in commodities prices

🔹 China’s factories are absorbing significant cost pressures

bloomberg.com/news/articles/… Cities Across China’s Industrial Heartland Now Rationing Power

🔹 Some 21 municipalities in Guangdong province limiting use

🔹Global economic recovery, hot weather boosting demand

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

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