China's #UkraineWar plan was to support Russia but maintain its critical econ ties to the US/EU. That narrow path is becoming even narrower as the war goes on & Beijing becomes more openly pro-Moscow There are potentially grave consequences. 1/
reuters.com/world/us-warn-… As the US & its allies have come together, China's leaders are being pushed into a hard chohice between their relations w Putin & the West. They want Russia as an anti-West partner long term but need the West now to sustain the faltering Chinese economy. If they choose Putin 2/

This (if true) may be Putin testing his new friends in Beijing to see how far they'll go to support him. Seems unlikely to me China's leaders would get so directly involved in the #UkraineWar. Too much risk for too little gain 1/ ft.com/content/308504… The most important factor to understand about Chinese foreign policy is that it's always about China first. Beijing doesn't take any action or help other countries unless China wins from it. Getting directly engaged in Putin's war to promote his goals in Europe take Beijing 2/

Ray Dalio is missing the fundamenal shift underway in China in relations between the state & private sector. Xi Jinping is reversing the trend toward greater economic freedom started in 1978 & that will have major consequences for China's future.1/ markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/ra… If you don't grasp this , you can't understand what's happening in China today. The current regulatory crackdowns are part of a much larger effort by Xi's state to reestablish control over private enterprise. He doesn't care about the possible consequences for growth. 2/

My big read on China's troubled & expensive commercial jetliner project. It's a case study on why China will struggle to catch-up to the US. 1/

https://twitter.com/thewirechina/status/1345884503387103232

OK, you're thinking: China already makes 5G & high-speed rail so planes should be easy. What I learned is that it's not so simple. Commercial planes present special challenges. The integration process of the components is especially complex. 2/

My view on #TikTok in the US:
Yes, Chinese companies like TikTok are a potential security threat
No, Trump's solution is not the way to address the threat. 1/ wsj.com/articles/trump… If you know how China works, you know no company can resist the autocratic state if it wants something, such as data on US citizens. But forcing the sale of TikTok to US investors doesn't solve the problem. 2/

Beijing's approach to Hong Kong shows better than any other aspect of policy how the Chinese leadership has shifted away from economic pragmatism and toward political & ideological control. 1/4 The crisis in HK is entirely a creation of the Xi regime's obsession w control over every aspect of Chinese society. If HK had been left alone, it would be a quiet, prosperous city aiding Chinese development. But Xi couldn't tolerate a HK free of his surveillance state 2/4

The global pandemic has highlighted a critical part of the widening U.S.-China conflict: The battle isn't just over who has faster 5G or better missiles. It's an ideological war over which system is superior, democracy or autocracy. And the US isn't doing so well right now. 1/ China is touting its "victory" over the virus as a mark of its superior govt. They're preaching to the world about how to combat the virus. It's nonsense of course. The failings of Chinese authoritarianism are what started the pandemic in the first place. 2/

I hear again & again how effective the Chinese state is. That's a myth. Some get that idea because of China's rapid growth in recent decades & the pace of infrastructure development. But both are misleading. MORE As to infrastructure, it's much easier to build stuff when you don't have to worry about civil society or economic logic. Some of it has been very helpful to the economy. Some is just built to pump up GDP or promote certain industries. MORE