Of all the dumb stocks that I've seen in my career, $SAVA at a $1.4 billion valuation is, by far, profoundly the dumbest (outside of some bubble period, like 1999-2000 or 2020-2021). The government literally just told people that all of their basic science work is a fraud... that their only "positive" clinical trial data was made up, and they showed you exactly who did it and how, and still some idiots are out there owning this thing because "the phase 3 trial might be positive."

If you convincingly lie to a doctor about a diagnosis that lacks a highly sensitive & specific diagnostic test, they will likely treat you. That is not an indictment of Medicine. What patients tell you is the vast majority of important data needed to get a correct diagnosis. 1/4 This is true even for surgery. In the 1990s, my ex was relentlessly bullied for "being a lesbian" at her small rural Indiana high school. She got sick of it and needed to leave, so she faked severe stomach pain. She faked it so convincingly that her parents took her to the ER. 2/

the media landscape is defined largely by the egos of jilted men. a thread: Chicago, 1994. i am the editor of the conservative newspaper, a section of the college newspaper. i date the editor of the leftist newspaper. Her ex-bf is the Editor-in-Chief of the entire paper. He kicks both political sections out of the paper entirely. Isolated absurdity? ...

there's one man on earth who both (A) has discretionary authority over at least $1 billion in assets, and (B) is long $AMC common stock outright, voluntarily, not in an index fund and not short-against-the-box, and it is this fucking Pittsburgh Steelers fan. life >>> art to be clear: this man's socials indicate he is living an incredibly awesome western Pennsylvania life, and i love everything about him other than (1) his choice of professional football fandom, and (2) him fucking with my arb trade

Fantastic article debunking $NWBO pumpers' claims. Independent experts note company's new made-up "control group" renders study uninterpretable and unpersuasive. 1/2

https://twitter.com/adamfeuerstein/status/1594679958449885186

also, $NWBO pumpers claim that the study design was completely changed before results (big fat fail) of the original study were known. that seems almost certainly untrue

I expressed my concerns re $VERU Sabizabulin placebo group oxygenation data abnormalities in a letter to members of the AdCom & the FDA. The bullet point summary is pictured here. A copy of the full letter, with supporting detail, is posted at this link: drive.google.com/file/d/1mIKsI3… would love to send this to @saidee27 on twitter to make sure he sees it, but his DMs are closed, and we have no mutuals in common, on account of the harsh fact that apparently i am extremely old😭

idk what $VERU AdCom will do at this point, but i have read the FDA briefing doc & the company's, and we covered 2/3 of our short this morning at a small loss ($13.56 vs. $13.20 basis), because I know for certain the @US_FDA briefing team failed to note the biggest problem, this:

https://twitter.com/Adrian_H/status/1546202275584131073

oxygenation at presentation is a massive predictor of Covid mortality, and the FDA (1) failed to note an imbalance in the tails of the groups & (2) failed to note (or reconcile) the discrepancies between enrollment criteria and this data presentation. this is a massive failure.

All y'all ready for a "That truck isn't going on it's own; That truck is just rolling down a hill!" short report?

Good, because here it is. Shortest one I've ever written.

(credit for amusing graphic to @quantian1) $VERU published their phase 3 data on sabizabulin for Covid-19 yesterday. For a while, anyone fluent in evidence-based medicine has been wondering "Why was the mortality in the placebo group so darn high?"

Just had a call with corporate management which reminded me the extent to which radical fundamentalist Christian theocracy is beginning to dominate the delivery of medical care in the United States, a thread: For example, if you are a cis woman in Alabama, for any reason, or no reason at all, you can get any gender affirming care you want. You can get a Brazilian butt lift, liposuction, breast augmentation, a labiaplasty, a tummy tuck, botox, or a body lift, no questions asked. 2/

As there are so many vaxxed industry contacts with mild covid at present, and massive numbers of friends/colleagues infected with delta or omicron (we don't generally test to discern variant clade here in the U.S.), a Covid update thread: The northern U.S. is experiencing two concurrent Covid pandemics: delta cases are right at their expected December peak, and omicron Cases are rapidly rising, now accounting for 50% of cases in major metros like Seattle.

70% of people who buy an EV would buy one without the subsidies. Therefore a $12k per car U.S. subsidy means the government will be paying at least $40,000 for every incremental EV on the road.
cityobservatory.org/electric-vehic… Each EV saves 2-3 tons of CO2/yr. Over a 12-year life, the subsidy will cost > $1,300 per incremental ton of Co2 saved.

Direct carbon capture costs $100 per ton. Forests cost $20 per ton.

The Democratic EV subsidy plan is a massive greenwash giveaway to car companies & unions.

I am *starting* to think $SPRT shareholders do not yet realize that each current $SPRT share is worth 0.117 shares of a new entity that will have roughly 39 million shares out post-merger.

i.e. at $40 they are paying $13.5 bil for a 106 mW nat gas power station & some btc miners also, investors who don't want to stick their wang in a vitamix should note that $SPRT short interest (last reported 8/13) is only 31.5% of the float, not "62%" like some twitter conman is saying.

and ISI Market figures don't show much change in short interest since 8/13.

Let's talk $CYDY. As an M.D. and a human, I _hope_ their imminent phase 2B/3 trial result for severe covid-19 is a success. However, as an investor, I'm short the stock, because it's trading like it's 1999, with a $4 bil mkt cap, even though its only clinical asset is from 1999. the company's sole asset: leronlimab. It's a monoclonal antibody developed in the late 1990s that was selected because of its ability to occupy the CCR5 receptor (and thus prevent HIV binding), while having little to no effect on the normal functioning of CCR5

$MVIS at $3 bil is the single most absurd pricing in public markets that I have ever seen. This is a nearly-worthless trading sardine, detached from any actual underlying business. [thread] $MVIS is up today because it announced is close to developing early prototype samples of a LIDAR product. This is not news to anyone who has been following the company. The company is a laggard in the space, and the stock has risen on LIDAR hype, due to SPAC comps, for months.

Another day, another brutally flawed study going around flu bro (bra?) twit.

Here's the study: the author's tested residents of Santa Clara Co, CA to see if they had antibodies to the virus. Exactly 50 out of 1,500 did. That's 1.5%. (thread 1/)

https://twitter.com/valleyhack/status/1251178802631176192

Alas, the authors decided that 1.5% was not enough. They tested too many Karens and not enough Joses, so based on the presumption that the true prevalence of disease (something they guessed at) is much higher in males and minorities, they raised their estimate of prevalence. 2/

Link to official Heinsberg coronavirus data summary. This was the area of Germany hardest-hit early. Approximately 2/3 of the families contacted agreed to participate in testing. Preliminary data is from first 500 people tested. 1/ land.nrw/de/pressemitte… Both PCR (for active infection) and Ab (resolved infection or infection > a few days) were done. 2% pcr positive, 14% Ab positive, total 15%.

If you assume deaths and infections were evenly distributed across the region, total deaths / total infections = 0.37% thus far. 2/

Florida is overrun with undiagnosed coronavirus. (thread) Data from the ESSENCE-FL report for the first week of March (through Mar 7), published Mar 11.

1. Statewide flu-like activity at urgent cares and ERs is significantly up. Somewhat unusual to rise this late in year. 2. This uptick could, absent other data, represent either flu or COVID-19. Unfortunately, we know from the % of positive flu tests, which continues to fall rapidly, that it is not flu. It's coronavirus.

Be extremely careful taking @SeekingAlpha bios/articles at face value. For example, this guy Zhiyuan Sun, @Woodrow8664, who writes glowingly of , claims to be CFO of a Fintech, and a former hedge fund manager. I can't find any record of Tatry Capital L.P. ever having existed on Google or sec.gov. And the "fintech" is "a student run startup." (side note: hello Utah)

Tesla CEO Elon Musk has been harassing Randeep Hothi for months. Why? Because @elonmusk is a malignant narcissist, with a history of repeated multi-billion dollar securities frauds, and Randeep has been, using completely legal means, gathering data documenting Elon's lies. Elon Musk's behavior has been consistent and abhorrent. When Tesla employee Martin Tripp became a whistleblower, Musk threatened him, and was responsible for concocting a false police report of an "active shooter threat." arstechnica.com/tech-policy/20…