1. Pakistan’s exports have decreased from 0.18% of total global exports in 1992 to 0.13% in 2022. Using another metric, our exports have declined from 16.5% in 1999 to 9% in 2022. Clearly this is a secular decline in our exports. I think there are four factors that explain this 2. downward trend.

First is law and order. Foreigners don’t come to Pakistan due to a perception of insecurity. Even many foreign airlines don’t come here, and when they do they don’t like their crews staying here overnight. As a result our factories aren’t able to get their

1. My dear friend @murtazahsyed has written awesome threads on economic policies lately, giving us free tutorials. He was a great Deputy & Acting Governor of SBP. I wish him well as he moves on. Today I will run a fool’s errand and partially disagree with one of his threads. 2. Murtaza wrote that our 20-year economic slide is for 3 reasons: spending beyond our means (Guns), population explosion (babies), and free-trade agreement (with China). I absolutely agree with the deleterious effects of population growth to our economy. No disagreements there.

1. My dear friend @murtazahsyed has written awesome threads on economic policies lately, giving us free tutorials. He was a great Deputy & Acting Governor of SBP. I wish him well as he moves on. Today I will run a fool’s errand and partially disagree with one of his threads.

https://twitter.com/murtazahsyed/status/1625466345142755331

2. Murtaza wrote that our 20-year economic slide is for 3 reasons: spending beyond our means (Guns), population explosion (babies), and free-trade agreement (with China). I absolutely agree with the deleterious effects of population growth to our economy. No disagreements there.

A few questions for PTI friends.
1) Did Imran Khan not return confiscated £190 million to his ATM? Did he not hide this from cabinet & the nation? Did he not get 100s of acres of land in exchange in a trust controlled by himself, his wife & Farah Gujjar? Isn’t this corruption? 2) Did Begum Sahiba not demand and receive (through her BFF Farah Gujjar) jewellery from the same ATM in exchange for Imran Khan giving him over a dozen permissions to leave the country while on ECL? Is this not corruption?

Amir bhai I am not at all a hidden Marxist. I am a firm believer in markets and capitalism. Also in social justice. If our country was on the brink of default, what was the government supposed to do? If we want our poor people to bear the brunt of rising global oil prices 1/n

https://twitter.com/AmirMateen2/status/1540292084430958593

in the form of high petrol and diesel prices, and if we want our middle classes to bear 17% tax on consumption and high utility rates due to global rise in coal, LNG and oil prices (and previous government’s incompetence and irresponsibility) then shouldn’t our rich also pay? 2/n

Shaukat bhai:
A) Total debt increased by PTI by March ‘22 exceeds Rs 20 trillion. Why are you giving Dec ‘21 figures. Isn’t that deception? Surely we expect better from you. B) Just the deficits incurred by PTI in the first 3 years is Rs 10.22 trillion. 1/2

https://twitter.com/shaukat_tarin/status/1517098032289955840

This years deficit was projected to be Rs 5.575 tr and this figure was shared by the ministry with you. So please don’t deny it. That’s Rs 15.795 tr in just pure deficits. C) You are saying every previous govt’s debt figure should include interest payments but not yours? 2/3

The decision announced last night to continue petrol and diesel subsidies was a tough one and will have to be revisited. At the moment the government is losing Rs 21 per litre on petrol and Rs 52 per litre on diesel. That’s a loss of Rs 3600 crore in 2 weeks 1/n or a loss of Rs 250 crore per day. This expense is more than the cost of running the entire civilian federal government plus the entire BISP/Ehsaas programme. We simply cannot afford to walk in the minefield PTI has left for us. 2/n

Bhai I don’t know who the FM will be but I know I will be part of PM SS’s team. So let me try to answer. 1: IK and Asad Umar did a lot of populist politics on petrol prices when they were in opposition implying that increase in prices of petrol went in someone’s pocket & that 1/n

https://twitter.com/azamakhan2/status/1512055926437597193

they would reduce tax on fuel to zero. But then they followed the usual govt practice of following OGRA recommendation until IK felt politically under pressure. Since then he’s frozen the price of petrol even as oil increased from $90 to $120 /barrel. It has since come down.2/n

A thread on three related personality disorders copied from Johns Hopkins Medicine.

A: Antisocial personality disorder. People with this disorder characteristically disregard the feelings, property, authority, and respect of others for their own personal gain.1/6 This may include violent or aggressive acts involving or targeting other individuals, without a sense of regret or guilt for any of their destructive actions.2/5

A friend of mine, who is understands international relations and diplomacy, made some comments on the excellent column by @kdastgirkhan. A thread on his comments.

“What does the new government need to do? First of all, use the present government as a model of what not to do. 1/n

https://twitter.com/miftahismail/status/1510138838894620673

Not conduct megaphone diplomacy. Not speak out of spite or frustration. In fact, not speak until absolutely necessary. Do not harangue diplomats. Do not appoint lackeys to positions demanding proficiency. Do not abuse foreign policy as grist for the political mill. 2/n

A thread on IK’s broken promises.

1. He promised to convert PM House into a university and Governor Houses into museums and public spaces. Promise not kept. 2. He promised to bring a team of 200 professionals. Instead he has given us a team of corrupt, incompetent and ill-mannered people. I mean truly the most clueless team ever.

A thread on the PTI economy.
Inflation as of Feb as measured by: CPI: 12.2%; SPI: 18.7% & WPI: 23.6%.
These very high numbers are the result of PTI’s incompetence and corruption (wheat, medicines, sugar, fertiliser, etc). Pak has the 3rd highest inflation in major economies. 1/7 Expected Trade Deficit $45 bil, Current Account Deficit $20 bil & Budget deficit Rs 4600 bil. All deficits highest in history. Continuous tax amnesty to IK’s real estate ATMs for 2 years. A new ill-conceived amnesty during FATF grey listing is now offered in desperation. 2/7

Many PTI supporting friends, including PTI-supporting journalists, are bemoaning the “buying and selling” of votes in Parliament. There is not an iota of evidence for it. None. These false (and improbable) accusations are inconsistent too: they variously claim Rs 10 crore 1/9 to Rs 1bil for a vote. It is typical for PTI spokespersons to just make up stuff and spout it on media. It is unfortunate that PTI-leaning anchors are also repeating these baseless accusations. They aren’t PTI members. Journalists should have objectivity & investigate first. 2/9

A thread on No Confidence Votes (NCV) in the West. Caveat: My knowledge of the West is quite limited. I don’t claim to know more about the West than anyone, as IK does.

IK talks of Western democracies. Here is some info on how PMs democratically handled NCVs in the West. 1/8 In 1972 in Britain there was an NCV against PM James Callaghan. He lost the vote, resigned and called for early elections. He didn’t threaten that he would become dangerous if he were removed. He too must have been disappointed at losing and having to vacate the PM office. 2/8

کچھ پی ٹی آئی کے حمایتی اینکرز اور تجزیے کار اب بغیر کسی ثبوت کے ایک بات کو آگے بڑھا رہے ہیں کہ عمران خان کو تحریک عدم اعتماد کے ذریعے ہٹانا ایک مغربی سازش ہے۔ اس بے شعور تصور کو ہوا دینے کی مذموم کوشیش میں، اگرچہ اس سے ہمارے ملک کے اسٹریٹجک اور معاشی مفادات کو
1/5 نقصان پہنچ سکتا ہے، عمران خان اب غیر سفارتی زبان اور اشتعال انگیز تقریروں کے ذریعے بیرونی ممالک اور ان کے سفیروں کو بے جا للکار رہے ہیں۔ یقیناً اس کا مقصد ایک یا دو بیرونی ممالک سے پاکستان کے خلاف منفی ردعمل حاصل کرنا، خود کو سازش کا نشانہ بنا کر پیش کرنا
2/5

Some PTI-supporting anchors and tajziakars are now pushing a line, without any evidence, that there is a Western conspiracy to oust Imran Khan through a no confidence motion. In a cynical move designed to give currency to this crazy notion, even though it can hurt Pak’s
1/5 strategic and economic interests, Imran Khan is now baiting foreign countries and their ambassadors through undiplomatic language and foolish speeches. His goal of course is to get an adverse reaction against Pakistan from a foreign country or two, make himself seem like a
2/5

(1/5) Hammad bhai am just working on your numbers, assuming them to be true. Given the average exchange rate in 2012/13 was Rs 97, the dollar value of repayment of Rs 180 billion was $1.86 billion. And the repayment this year of Rs 800 billion is equal to $4.6 billion at,

https://twitter.com/Hammad_Azhar/status/1472545904309805056

(2/5) let’s be generous and assume, Rs 174 to a dollar. Thus the extra dollar payment is $2.74 billion. Now given that we added about 15,000 MWs, the per kilowatt cost of capacity is: ($2,740,000,000 x Rs 174/$)/ (8760 hours in a year x 0.8 plant factor x 15,000,000 kwh per year

(1/n) There is renewed debate these days about power plants set up by PMLN. The 6 chief complaints by PTI are: a) That too much capacity was added, b) the plants were more expensive than warranted, c) they involved kickbacks, d) they were on a capacity payment basis so whether (2/n) we use power or not we have to pay, e) they are dependent on imported energy and not on local sources, and finally, f) they aren’t from renewable sources. Let’s answer each of these complaints. A: PMLN added too much capacity. Suppose we did. Then why is PTI planning

The newly appointed chairman of Rahmatul-lil-Aalameen Authority Dr Ajaz Ekram wrote an article in December 2020. Some excerpts:

“Many researchers have argued that 9/11 was the fifteenth false flag operation in the history of the United States similar to the Gulf of Tonkin 1/n invasion in Vietnam and the sinking of the Lusitania during WWI…

Similarly, coronavirus exists but the global politics of coronavirus is fraudulent. Since its kill rate is less than the ordinary flu, closing down the world economy cannot be justified, yet global powers 2/n

tribune.com.pk/story/2330727/…
One has to agree with IK that rising debt and low taxes are a national security
issue. How his narcissism allows him to say it without irony. IK has borrowed Rs 15000 billion in just 3 years, 60% of all debt taken in previous 71 years. 1/4 IK has borrowed more in 3 years than PMLN in 3 terms of MNS and one year of Shahid Abbasi combined. IK has borrowed more in 3 years than 4 PPP PMs including ZAB, BB, Yousuf Raza Gillani and Raja Pervaiz combined. IK has borrowed more in 3 years than Ayub Khan did in 10 years, 2/4

A thread on the four main reasons for the recent precipitous decline in the value of the rupee.
A: Uncertainty about renewal of the IMF programme.
B: Largest trade deficit and fastest growing imports in history.
C: Fourth highest inflation rates among major countries. 1/10 D: Rapid increase in money supply. I will expand a little on each of these reasons below: 2/10